To buy or rent a home, which is better? Great article (Daly City: renters, loans)

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

I hope the Bay Area cities stand up for themselves and tax the fuzz out of tech companies. If they leave we'll return to a rational market.

Are you completely nuts?

You want California to increase an already extremely high tax burden on "tech" companies just because they are able to pay their employees well, and therefore those employees are able to outbid you on being able to buy a home?

You're basically asking to push an industry to another state that has almost singlehandedly been responsible for the economic growth in California for the past 8 years, just because you can't afford a house in a place you want to live. Have you even considered what that would do to the California economy? No of course not, because you're selfish and only care about buying what you want even though you haven't done nearly enough to actually earn it. You want a nice house in the Bay Area? Why don't you get a better career, make more money, and actually earn it. Or better yet, leave and find a place where you can actually afford to buy a home. That certainly makes more sense than decimating private industry to fit your selfish fantasies.

That's not rational or logical in the slightest, it's lunacy, mixed with a good dose of envy. Not exactly a sound way to think up economic policy.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I am 100% certain we will see another major drop in the future, probably around 50% in both the stock market and housing market. With that being said, I am not saying it will go to the same level as 2010-2011. Over the long-run home prices tend to trend higher even with crashes. If the median house is $1,000 and then a crash happens and then the median price is $500 and then we see a recovery where the median house is $1,500 and then we see another crash where the median price might be $750 at the low, which is still higher than the previous $500 median, but still around a 50% drop. Does that make sense? Nothing goes straight up forever, the line zigs and zags and when it comes to real estate, I believe it will continue trending higher over the long-term, but with zigs and zags in between. Also, I'm not saying we will see a crash this year or next year. Nobody knows when the next crash will happen, but I'm guessing we are closer to the top than the bottom and that the average home in San Francisco will at some point be less than the current $1.2 million or whatever it is now.

There will be a correction, but it won't lead to housing being 50% off.

While the amount of people flocking to California (especially the LA basin, and the Bay Area) keeps increasing, the supply of land that can be built on, and the amount of housing units available for rent/purchase continues to decrease in relation to the amount of people moving in. It's happened in Manhattan, Hong Kong, and many other major cities around the world that are considered centers of commerce. People like being where the money is.

It will get worse from here on out, and I feel bad for people who didn't buy in 2009-2013 because that was an almost unprecedented time to buy brought on by the worst financial crash the country has seen. But anyone dreaming of buying a $700,000 3/2 in the Richmond District are living in a fantasy. People commuting from Tracy or Patterson CA into the Bay Area will become more and more of a reality.

[bmw335xi]

He wants to push out all the companies, but then who will pay for his welfare along with the million of other bleeding heart programs in the Bay Area.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

There will be a correction, but it won't lead to housing being 50% off.

While the amount of people flocking to California (especially the LA basin, and the Bay Area) keeps increasing, the supply of land that can be built on, and the amount of housing units available for rent/purchase continues to decrease in relation to the amount of people moving in. It's happened in Manhattan, Hong Kong, and many other major cities around the world that are considered centers of commerce. People like being where the money is.

It will get worse from here on out, and I feel bad for people who didn't buy in 2009-2013 because that was an almost unprecedented time to buy brought on by the worse financial crash the country has seen. But anyone dreaming of buying a $700,000 3/2 in the Richmond are living in a fantasy. People commuting from Tracy or Patterson CA into the Bay Area will become more and more of a reality.

That's what the person I bought my condo from thought too... History repeats itself, I don't know why people are so shocked every time it happens. Another prediction I'm 100% certain will be the US being involved in another war sometime. Doesn't mean tomorrow, but like a housing crash it will happen sometime.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

He wants to push out all the companies, but then who will pay for his welfare along with the million of other bleeding heart programs in the Bay Area.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

That's what the person I bought my condo from thought too... History repeats itself, I don't know why people are so shocked every time it happens.

I'm old enough to have seen "the crash" happen in California numerous times (early 90s, Tech bubble 1.0, 2007, etc).

I've never ever seen prices ever drop back to "pre-bubble" prices.



So the best most (who don't already own homes) can hope for is for 2009-2013 prices plus a significant premium, but will be below whatever peak prices end up being this time around.

The people complaining the most here had 4 years, 4 freaking years to purchase a home when housing prices where stagnant. I bought 2 homes in California, and I moved out of the state before the crash. I'm not sure how anyone could NOT have bought a home in California during that time unless their own financial situation was a complete mess.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

I'm old enough to have seen "the crash" happen in California numerous times (early 90s, Tech bubble 1.0, 2007, etc).

I've never ever seen prices ever drop back to "pre-bubble" prices.



So the best most (who don't already own homes) can hope for is for 2009-2013 prices plus a significant premium, but will be below whatever peak prices end up being this time around.

I'm not saying prices will drop to 2011 levels... I'm saying we will at some point see around a 50% drop, whether home prices appreciate another 30% who knows. I personally think we are closer to the top than to the bottom.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I'm not saying prices will drop to 2011 levels... I'm saying we will at some point see around a 50% drop, whether home prices appreciate another 30% who knows. I personally think we are closer to the top than to the bottom.

The median price for a 2 bedroom home for the Inner Richmond is around $950,000.

So you think 2 bedroom places for that area will drop to sub-$500,000 anytime soon (or in your life time)?

Because if they do, I'm buying 2-3.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

The median price for a 2 bedroom home for the Inner Richmond is around $950,000.

So you think 2 bedroom places for that area will drop to sub-$500,000 anytime soon (or in your life time)?

Because if they do, I'm buying 2-3.

Do the math again or re-read my post...

If the average price is $1 million and the market goes up 30% the average price will be $1.3 million and then if the housing crashes the average house will be around $650,000

[bodyforlife99]

Right on the money, CaliRestoration with your posts. I have mirrored your comments in many threads. You will have tomatoes thrown at you by the class envy people (which is all this is when you get down to the meat and potatoes of it).