Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Take that $75,176K a year and put it in the market at 8% per year for the life of a 30 mortgage and in Texas you will have $9,404,113 after 30 years”
That’s a version of the Texas money train.
Someone in CA that is not making more than $100,000 a year should be on the train to Texas or where ever wages and housing are cheap. Two kids in SF making minimum wages would be pulling in close to $70,000!
You also have to consider that those property taxes are capped in CA and lord knows where they will be in Texas with all the new schools and infrastructure for the booming population. Plus that $1.4m place will be about $11.2M plus you don't have to live in Texas.
Property Taxes vary and Oakland CA is on the high end...
$12,300 in East Oakland this year for 1700 square feet all 1958 with no updates except to replace shake roof.
Lost 3 neighbors in the last 12 months... another just put out the for sale sign.
The last ones had only been here for 2 years so I asked why the move?
The married mid 30's tech couple said the neighbors and neighborhood are great... they are comfortable in the home but the negatives keep piling up... trying to find fire insurance, zero law enforcement presence, property taxes over a $1000 a month for 1700 square feet of 1950's ranch style is a reality check.
Economics aside... couple high cost and civil unrest, vandalism, violent protests and lack of law enforcement raises questions of having a future here and decided to explore alternatives and found Idaho... the plan is to be sold by the end of this month and 2020 the last tax return filed in California... the wife said they never imagined leaving California but the realities have changed and you have to change with it.
May 31 was a reality check for me... the hospital clinic was being looted with roving mobs smashing windows and carting off supplies and equipment... I repeatedly called 911 and finally on the 4th call dispatch said we are not coming... no one is coming and I should try to leave when safe to do so... a medical clinic under siege and zero law enforcement response... video footage, even a dropped cell phone and plenty of finger prints and police have no interest??? Just what are we paying taxes for if services are withheld?
In my neighborhood porch pirates thrive and OPD simply says it does not respond to property crimes and if you need a report for insurance make on online... again... plenty of video but nothing.
Neighbors leaving said they are looking for a better future... free of water shortages, police that actually serve the public, being able to get homeowners insurance, reasonable taxes, etc...
Found it interesting when she said three of their new neighbors in Idaho are ex law enforcement from the Bay Area... because their law enforcement pensions are good anywhere to why settle in Idaho?
With many employed now working from home means anywhere is basically is fair game.
Maybe I'm wrong but I see on going brain drain... several very talented 30 somethings grabbed company relocation to Austin Texas... not even a year yet but now homeowners and settling in nicely.
It's not just people moving it is the companies they work for.
Could it be that we who live in the Bay Area have an inflated opinion of just how great it is?
I asked about Oregon and she said not after the mess in Portland... others feel the same about Seattle.
If the Bay Area is no longer perceived a safe place to raise a family and grow old no amount of money will change it...
Last edited by Ultrarunner; 12-06-2020 at 02:39 PM..
Lost 3 neighbors in the last 12 months... another just put out the for sale sign.
Several more families I know in the Walnut Creek area... an upper scale area... said the decision to move solidified after the protests in downtown Walnut Creek... nothing happens in a vacuum.
I asked one what about Oregon they had talked about for retirement and he said not after the mess in Portland... others feel the same about Seattle.
If the Bay Area is no longer perceived a safe place to raise a family and grow old no amount of money will change it...
OMG, just leave and go on the Idaho forum and tell them you're coming and see the welcome! Here's yer frigging mansion if that is what floats yer boat.
OMG, just leave and go on the Idaho forum and tell them you're coming and see the welcome! Here's yer frigging mansion if that is what floats yer boat.
Not sure how this relates to Long Term Ramifications of Bay Area Real Estate.
Are you implying the link to the neighborhood in Michigan offers a better quality of life than either the Bay Area or Idaho?
I do see the long term ramifications on Bay Area Real Estate diminish as people have options... and more so when an area is no longer perceived safe.
I am 4th generation Oakland... I have good neighbors and and as diverse as anywhere...
The destruction of private and public property with little or no repercussions concerns all of us...
The surprise this time around is for years I've heard no need to worry... as these things only happen in San Francisco and Oakland... well now it can happen anywhere.
Ever pause to think why families settled in pick up and move?
What floats my boat is living in a place where people respect each other and pick up after themselves... can't put it any simpler...
Ever pause to think why families settled in pick up and move?
.
Well according to you they want a three times larger, brand new place with taxes that are less in a NBHD of ex CA cops. Go, and be happy. If you are giving up your NBHD as a 4th generation Oaklander then leave and let someone take your place that might work to improve things.
The Bay Area will never provide you with the housing that you think is necessary. I have a barely over !000 sf 3/2 on an 8000 sf lot. I can use all 8000 sf space year round. If I was in a 4000 sf place in Detroit or Idaho I'd be confined to that space in AC or heating probably 9 months of the year.
For your other issues, VOTE, attend your council meetings. The NBHD is only as good as the neighbors.
You must have missed me at council... I often speak and sometimes that has been past midnight.
I adopted a local creek years ago and monthly spend a Saturday morning hauling out trash that people dump...
Sometimes caught people dumping because I am there cleaning up... turned over cell phone pictures with license plate and nothing...
As mentioned I have great neighbors... we all have keys to each others homes for emergencies... everyone looks out for one another and black, white, asian, LGBT we cannot understand why porch pirates get a pass as does car break-ins and residential burglary... yep... someone breaks into your home and OPD says make report online.
I stopped a burglary in a neighbors home in progress... saw the front door open and got out of my car and shouted his name saying we are late... lets get going... burglars went out the back with only what they could carry... police did show up as it was burglary in progress.
We are a neighborhood watch neighborhood and have monthly meetings at the local church with the beat officer... there was a time when the Chief would even show up... now it is zoom if not cancelled.
Its one thing to pay higher taxes with benefits but where are the benefits?
I mentioned living in a place where people respect each other and pick up after themselves because I'm fed up with people using the creeks and streets of Oakland as a dumping ground...
I moved from a 650 square foot 1910 cottage on 90th and B street with a 25x100 lot... it was all I could afford and made a go of it... and my neighbors there had the same fears... being safe in your home and not being blamed when someone breaks into your car... like what do you expect???
All of the community policing and neighborhood watch and we still have the same problems.
The only difference is now it is not just Oakland or SF... it is Hayward, San Leandro, Union City... etc..
For the record I wouldn't know what to do with 4000 square foot home but I would love to have a 4000 square foot old barn/shop... that would be heaven... looked at some old warehouse space but couldn't compete with the grown operations...
Graduated High School in Oakland... 12 from my class became Oakland cops and moved far away... not a single one stayed in the city they were raised and worked.... with most now in Nevada, Oregon and Idaho... 51 or 52 and gone.
This morning I spoke to my immediate neighbor who has been 35 years on the street about the couple moving to Idaho... he said have you ever been there... I said not really... one afternoon 25 years ago.
He has family there and Montana... and gave me an illustration... he and his wife had some time to kill in Boise because the car was being repaired... they walked to the capital... no airport style security... no pat downs downs take off you belt and shoes... they wandered the halls and stopped in at the Governors office... greeted warmly and the receptioned asked how can I help you... they mentioned their car was being repaired and just checking out Boise... she said the governor isn't in but if he was he would would have been happy to see you...
I've been to Sacramento for hearings and no way would I be able to wander in from the street to Governors office...
Last edited by Ultrarunner; 12-06-2020 at 03:17 PM..
Everyone always likes to cute a token company moving away as the demise of California yet the Silicon Valley continues to lead the pack (by a mile) with new start ups and VC funding. Good for Houston for growing their tech market but it’s disingenuous to act like the sky is falling for California. It’s more of a matter of the pie size increasing and everyone getting a larger slice.
If youre a middle class person then the sky is falling for you in California. Lower income or high income are better off.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
10,352 posts, read 8,576,900 times
Reputation: 16698
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldKona
Someone in CA that is not making more than $100,000 a year should be on the train to Texas or where ever wages and housing are cheap. Two kids in SF making minimum wages would be pulling in close to $70,000!
You also have to consider that those property taxes are capped in CA and lord knows where they will be in Texas with all the new schools and infrastructure for the booming population. Plus that $1.4m place will be about $11.2M plus you don't have to live in Texas.
That’s assuming you were able to get the house. As I said a huge amount of people can’t afford to get a 1.2 million home.
The house I sold in California has gone up just under 9% per year in what have been record years.
Taking a 1.2 million dollar house assuming no housing drops makes it worth 15.9million in 30 years, a gain of 14.7 million, so that beats what I came up with in the Texas scenario.
But now let’s factor in what it cost to have thAt house in California for 30 years. In Texas you got 9 million in 30 years with the savings I showed and invested. That means in California you paid out that savings as well as opportunity cost to keep the 1.2 million house. Subtract the 9.5 million from the value of the California house in 30 years of 14.7 million and your net is 5.2 million.
That’s less than the 9.5 million I projected by going to Texas by 4.2 million.
Texas 9.5 million>California 5.2 million.
Now let’s add the fact that housing in Texas is also going up. The house I had with excellent schools had gone up 9 percent per year. Buying that $250k house in Texas in 30 years it will be 3.3 million value. That’s a gain of $3.05 million.
So let’s add that to the net of 3.1 million that Texas bear California by and now you have
Texas 12.6 million > California 5.2 million. That’s $7.4 million more that California.
There are plenty of areas in Texas where they won’t be spending on schools and such as they are already built and established.
I understand your thought processes and as a lifelong California resident I thought everywhere else was vastly inferior. I was actually quite arrogant about it. Then I explored other parts of the country and discovered how wrong I was. California has some nice features, but for my money I get so much more here in the south. Lesson learned.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
10,352 posts, read 8,576,900 times
Reputation: 16698
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldKona
Well according to you they want a three times larger, brand new place with taxes that are less in a NBHD of ex CA cops. Go, and be happy. If you are giving up your NBHD as a 4th generation Oaklander then leave and let someone take your place that might work to improve things.
The Bay Area will never provide you with the housing that you think is necessary. I have a barely over !000 sf 3/2 on an 8000 sf lot. I can use all 8000 sf space year round. If I was in a 4000 sf place in Detroit or Idaho I'd be confined to that space in AC or heating probably 9 months of the year.
For your other issues, VOTE, attend your council meetings. The NBHD is only as good as the neighbors.
Sorry this is a horrible stereotype of other areas. Living here in Georgia I see people outdoors all year round, more than when I lived in Pleasanton California. I have friends in Idaho and Michigan who are formally Californians and they are in no way climate constrained as you mentioned. I would say maybe 3 to 4 months mAy be unpleasant. That’s a far cry from your 9 months stated.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
