Long term ramifications on Bay Area Real Estate and Economy (hotels, contractor)

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by Maximiliano18

surely more cities will pivot to tech and the county will difuse the saturation of the market in SF.


Many rust belt states will pivot in the same way Austin is going to take over with Apple and Tesla.


Working from home also means the infrequent actual commutes could probably be longer if it is just 1 day a week or less.

They'res been speculation of a decentralized tech industry with lots of smaller and mid sized hubs but the Silicon Valley has done better, with job loss but much less than other regions.

Now major companies are allowing remote work for at least another year.

[Dave Coe]

https://mattmireles.com/rip-silicon-valley/

"RIP the place that was Silicon Valley.

Talent is fleeing the Bay Area at warp speed. Capital will flee too, but more slowly (as always). Soon-to-be-enacted tax hikes will accelerate the trend."


It's a stretch to say that the Silicon Valley will be the next Detroit.

My prediction is that Tech will still have a significant presence but no longer the main economic power house.

In a decade the Santa Clara Valley will be comparable to the San Gabriel Valley or Northern OC in Socal.

Basically a middle income ethnoburb with mostly bedroom communities mixed in with some commerce.

Besides the region resisted going vertical.

[BRinSM]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

https://mattmireles.com/rip-silicon-valley/In a decade the Santa Clara Valley will be comparable to the San Gabriel Valley or Northern OC in Socal.

Basically a middle income ethnoburb with mostly bedroom communities mixed in with some commerce.

the area is already an ethnoburb similar to SGV or northern OC, without the middle income part. The difference is that Silicon Valley is home to 3 of the 5 largest companies in the world. even with a a disbursement of talent elsewhere in the US or world, the impact of this will be felt for much longer than 10 years. keep in mind that the 3 companies mentioned are still increasing in influence.

[Dave Coe]

Uber CEO: We will shut down for months in California if new ruling not overturned:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...f-new-n1236506

[golgi1]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

https://mattmireles.com/rip-silicon-valley/

If this type of low content catharsis is indicative of the critique, then I wouldn't worry. He's upset that the region didn't grant him cheaper housing, faster by increasing density. A measure that is always a temporary band-aid for affordability and that poorly attempts to cover for the real issue of labor over-supply and the resultant low wages and upward pressure on housing costs.

In a residential housing market that is warped by a high level of foreign speculative investment and given a labor market whose wages are kept artifically low with non-needed H1B hires, a temporary labor supply dip and even a temporary local GDP dip is a good thing. There is nothing in Silicon Valley's history that says that such a dip would be anything but temporary. There exist intellectual assets, industrial infrastructure, and even weather and geography that is unique to the region that will assure its current role for as long as we are using technology, and in spite of any regional economic competitors that should also be seen as healthy for the local economic balance of the Bay Area. Such competition will put a healthy downward pressure on hosuing costs.

A temporary labor exodus puts upward pressure on wages, briefly disincetivizes foreign speculation, and therefore simulataneously lowers housing prices (a dip that is already significant in the regional rental market) and encourages higher worker pay.

All because guys like this one decided to take a vacation from the area. Thank him. The tenacious ones will move back and have better offers as a result of the turmoil. This type of labor supply chaos is actually how employers are kept honest in terms of wages, the labor market is therefore kept healthy on both sides, and the area is kept liveable in terms of rent.

[davdaven]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

Uber CEO: We will shut down for months in California if new ruling not overturned:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...f-new-n1236506

Good riddance. Uber takes advantage of low-wage workers by willfully misclassifying them as contractors and not employees in defiance of state law. They use that money to prop up investors and pay a relatively small group of techies 6 figures each, ultimately shifting the financial burden of employment to taxpayers.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

Uber CEO: We will shut down for months in California if new ruling not overturned:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...f-new-n1236506

I wonder how many of the folks who were lured there on the corporate side with a paycut but a huge number of stock options are regretting their decision? I was contacted by them once and elected against it as my take home pay would be significantly less for several years (pre-IPO) all with a "promise" of potential riches in the distant future.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by davdaven

Good riddance. Uber takes advantage of low-wage workers by willfully misclassifying them as contractors and not employees in defiance of state law. They use that money to prop up investors and pay a relatively small group of techies 6 figures each, ultimately shifting the financial burden of employment to taxpayers.

Good for you guys! Now instead of people earning money by choosing their hours whether full-time or part-time will not have jobs and those depending on Uber or Lyft will pay multiples more for taxis which may or may not show up. There was always an Uber or Lyft available.

Another great job by California.

[davdaven]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

Now instead of people earning money by choosing their hours whether full-time or part-time will not have jobs and those depending on Uber or Lyft will pay multiples more for taxis which may or may not show up. There was always an Uber or Lyft available.

First, Uber and Lyft's claims that people will not be able to choose their hours is a lie. Millions of working people already do this, both full-time and part-time, without the need to be classified as contractors. Plus these part- and full-time employees get paid at least minimum wage and also have basic employment benefits that you no doubt enjoy.

Second, it sounds like you aren't familiar with how Uber and Lyft work. Drivers can and do choose not to accept rides. It is possible to go 10 or 20 minutes before a driver accepts your ride request. And even then, they can choose to cancel after accepting the ride. So both Uber and Lyft are working just like taxis do. Can confirm, as my friends who still use these services are experiencing exactly this.

[Oakformonday]

Originally Posted by davdaven

Good riddance. Uber takes advantage of low-wage workers by willfully misclassifying them as contractors and not employees in defiance of state law. They use that money to prop up investors and pay a relatively small group of techies 6 figures each, ultimately shifting the financial burden of employment to taxpayers.

Maybe so but if Uber leaves, these low-wage workers won't be making any money. It is easy for those of us that are not part of the service economy to be smug and think we know what is good for "these people." I know someone that is a driver and very worried. It is supplementing his income as his business has screeched to a halt during this pandemic. There may be a better way to shift the financial burden than passing state laws that drive away business--business that provides jobs. But, that's just me. We are all allowed to have an opinion.