Long term ramifications on Bay Area Real Estate and Economy (San Francisco: neighborhoods, buyers)

[DeanoSF]

Originally Posted by HappyinCali

Just got my appraisal for refinancing my place. I live in the western part of the city. Appraiser said that Sunset/Richmond doing very well. Said downtown condos obviously getting hit, but they are seeing SFH values increase. My house appraised at the high end of what I was expecting based on zillow/redfin.

I just purchased a SFH in the North Bay in late October and can vouch for the fact that prices have steadily risen across the area, after only a slight dip in April, 2020.

We focused on the City, Marin, Sonoma and Napa for my search, starting in mid May, thinking we could casually watch prices come down, only to watch the market gather steam.

Only in the City, did we find any weaknesses in the market. Loft-style condos south of Market and high rise buildings around Rincon Hill had taken a noticeable dive price-wise, and the market seemed saturated with sellers looking to cut their losses. We just glanced at those out of curiosity, mostly--not what we were really looking for. I believe those types of properties are continuing to struggle.

Good properties elsewhere were still going fast and still getting multiple bids, though counter offers were not as inflexible as I have observed in years past. The number of bidders on properties also appeared to be fewer than in years past.

We ended up submitting bids on three properties, and seriously vetted another three, but declined to bid, between May and October. Many sellers were clearly over-valuing their properties, but inventory was extremely tight in the areas we were looking.

We finally had our bid accepted on our favorite property of any we had seen, bidding against one other buyer at just under 99% of asking price. In my estimation, our home was probably priced $30,000-$40,000 over what I believed its real market value (an ambiguous concept, I know) to be, but we love the place and were willing to make a strong bid to win it.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

I just purchased a SFH in the North Bay in late October and can vouch for the fact that prices have steadily risen across the area, after only a slight dip in April, 2020.

We focused on the City, Marin, Sonoma and Napa for my search, starting in mid May, thinking we could casually watch prices come down, only to watch the market gather steam.

Only in the City, did we find any weaknesses in the market. Loft-style condos south of Market and high rise buildings around Rincon Hill had taken a noticeable dive price-wise, and the market seemed saturated with sellers looking to cut their losses. We just glanced at those out of curiosity, mostly--not what we were really looking for. I believe those types of properties are continuing to struggle.

Good properties elsewhere were still going fast and still getting multiple bids, though counter offers were not as inflexible as I have observed in years past. The number of bidders on properties also appeared to be fewer than in years past.

We ended up submitting bids on three properties, and seriously vetted another three, but declined to bid, between May and October. Many sellers were clearly over-valuing their properties, but inventory was extremely tight in the areas we were looking.

We finally had our bid accepted on our favorite property of any we had seen, bidding against one other buyer at just under 99% of asking price. In my estimation, our home was probably priced $30,000-$40,000 over what I believed its real market value (an ambiguous concept, I know) to be, but we love the place and were willing to make a strong bid to win it.

What happened to that condo tower that was quickly sinking on one side? Did the value of those condos plummet?

[davdaven]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

I just purchased a SFH in the North Bay in late October and can vouch for the fact that prices have steadily risen across the area, after only a slight dip in April, 2020.

We focused on the City, Marin, Sonoma and Napa for my search, starting in mid May, thinking we could casually watch prices come down, only to watch the market gather steam.

Only in the City, did we find any weaknesses in the market. Loft-style condos south of Market and high rise buildings around Rincon Hill had taken a noticeable dive price-wise, and the market seemed saturated with sellers looking to cut their losses. We just glanced at those out of curiosity, mostly--not what we were really looking for. I believe those types of properties are continuing to struggle.

Good properties elsewhere were still going fast and still getting multiple bids, though counter offers were not as inflexible as I have observed in years past. The number of bidders on properties also appeared to be fewer than in years past.

We ended up submitting bids on three properties, and seriously vetted another three, but declined to bid, between May and October. Many sellers were clearly over-valuing their properties, but inventory was extremely tight in the areas we were looking.

We finally had our bid accepted on our favorite property of any we had seen, bidding against one other buyer at just under 99% of asking price. In my estimation, our home was probably priced $30,000-$40,000 over what I believed its real market value (an ambiguous concept, I know) to be, but we love the place and were willing to make a strong bid to win it.

East Bay prices have been rising too. Any potential price softness has been offset by limited availability. Very few homes have been on market in the North Oakland-Pinole slice of the East Bay that I like to keep tabs on, so they go quickly and at ever-increasing prices. At least in this area, bidding wars and the like started to ease up in 2018 except for the most sought-after properties in neighborhoods like Rockridge. While bidding wars are not as common now, homes are going very quickly nonetheless. Maybe 10 days on the market? Lots of people with the means to buy now with mortgage rates as low as they are.

Originally Posted by Finper

What happened to that condo tower that was quickly sinking on one side? Did the value of those condos plummet?

Construction to fix Millennium Tower started in November. If you're legitimately interested in what's going on, I've seen one or two videos recently surface on YouTube besides the standard news articles.

[Ultrarunner]

Houses hitting the market are moving briskly at significant gains after just to 2 to 3 years ownership in Oakland hills... clearing 200k+ after all expenses...

So far after a dozen such sales each seller moved out of State...

[DeanoSF]

Originally Posted by Finper

What happened to that condo tower that was quickly sinking on one side? Did the value of those condos plummet?

This video, produced this month, updates the Millennium Tower's status on a lot of fronts, after an in-depth discussion of its history:

https://youtu.be/zxS71614E_0

Discussion of the fix comes at about 9:10 in the video. It goes on to say that the penthouse just sold for $13 million and notes that's "a record" (presumably for that building).

That may be a bit below its potential, as I'd guess that without the controversy, a penthouse in one of the top 2-3 buildings in SF would go for more than that.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

This video, produced this month, updates the Millennium Tower's status on a lot of fronts, after an in-depth discussion of its history:

https://youtu.be/zxS71614E_0

Discussion of the fix comes at about 9:10 in the video. It goes on to say that the penthouse just sold for $13 million and notes that's "a record" (presumably for that building).

That may be a bit below its potential, as I'd guess that without the controversy, a penthouse in one of the top 2-3 buildings in SF would go for more than that.

That’s crazy! Only in SF would people pay millions for a sinking condo in a high earth quake zone.

[TashaPosh]

Originally Posted by Finper

That’s crazy! Only in SF would people pay millions for a sinking condo in a high earth quake zone.

The residents didn’t know when they bought ofc. Joe Montana used to live there & Hunter Pence does. Several well known ppl...especially on the higher floors.

It’s being fixed ofc....but my fiancé is a lawyer & he is aware of a private settlement that each resident will receive because of their damages & the stigma.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by TashaPosh

The residents didn’t know when they bought ofc. Joe Montana used to live there & Hunter Pence does. Several well known ppl...especially on the higher floors.

It’s being fixed ofc....but my fiancé is a lawyer & he is aware of a private settlement that each resident will receive because of their damages & the stigma.

The condos are still selling for millions

[CorporateCowboy]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

It goes on to say that the penthouse just sold for $13 million and notes that's "a record" (presumably for that building).

That may be a bit below its potential, as I'd guess that without the controversy, a penthouse in one of the top 2-3 buildings in SF would go for more than that.

Your information is outdated by about five years (and is relative to only a 'timetable'); but absolutely, comparable ultra-luxury condos/penthouses with top-of-the-market amenities (with near 360 degree views) are in the range of $25-30M (the most expensive/exclusive being in the range of $49M or so).

Though smaller and newer (as a whole), the ultra-luxury market in SF is not that much different than NYC. The size of the unit, the floor, and the views are key components (as well as if it's sold as a blank canvas or not). The new owner you reference re: $13M (in 2016 lol) has publicly stated he bought the unit with confidence (after consulting with lawyers/engineers) to take advantage of what he felt to be a 'deal' of sorts, amidst said 'controversy' and ongoing lawsuits.

That said, not sure what the Millenium Tower (or that particular unit) has to do with 'long-term ramifications' on Bay Area Real Estate, as a whole, per the thread.

Originally Posted by Finper

The condos are still selling for millions

Point being, their property values declined roughly thirty-percent or thereabouts before the (over) $100M fix came into play (with certainty) - and remain slightly lower, though still have come a long way, particularly since 2009. It's been known as the 'leaning tower of lawsuits' locally.

[DeanoSF]

Originally Posted by CorporateCowboy

Your information is outdated by about five years (and is relative to only a 'timetable'); but absolutely, comparable ultra-luxury condos/penthouses with top-of-the-market amenities (with near 360 degree views) are in the range of $25-30M (the most expensive/exclusive being in the range of $49M or so).

Though smaller and newer (as a whole), the ultra-luxury market in SF is not that much different than NYC. The size of the unit, the floor, and the views are key components (as well as if it's sold as a blank canvas or not). The new owner you reference re: $13M (in 2016 lol) has publicly stated he bought the unit with confidence (after consulting with lawyers/engineers) to take advantage of what he felt to be a 'deal' of sorts, amidst said 'controversy' and ongoing lawsuits.

That said, not sure what the Millenium Tower (or that particular unit) has to do with 'long-term ramifications' on Bay Area Real Estate, as a whole, per the thread.



Point being, their property values declined roughly thirty-percent or thereabouts before the (over) $100M fix came into play (with certainty) - and remain slightly lower, though still have come a long way, particularly since 2009. It's been known as the 'leaning tower of lawsuits' locally.

Not "my information" at all. I noted that the video was published this month and that I was quoting the video. The only reason I added it was in response to a specific question about it from that poster about that property and I had seen the video come up in my YouTube que a few days earlier.