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JJ, I dont have any facts for you about West Villages retail growth, just some opinions based upon what I'm seeing...
Publix...I think building a new Publix store in Nokomis on 41 (now under construction) prior to building the one in the West Villages was a mistake. How so? I drive by the next-nearest grocery stores to both sites almost daily...
...Venice Village Shoppes on 41 & Jacaranda is the busiest shopping area I've ever seen. The parking lot is over-capacity (cars parked on grass/dirt) during season, and is still full now in early May. That Publix must be one of the highest revenue producers in their chain. Plus, it has no competition South or East, but lots of population growth in both directions.
...On the other hand, if you drive past all the next-nearest grocery stores to the new Nokomis Publix, they are not nearly as busy, and its actually now become over-saturated with grocery stores (Aldi opening May 10th), AND another Pubix just South AND North (Central Sarasota Pkwy) AND a Sprouts, AND a Wal Mart. I see these all daily, and go into most of them weekly, and they are not nearly as busy as the Venice Village Shoppes area stores are.
Construction should have already begun on the West Villages Publix so it could be open next Season. Maybe the water/sewer or other infrastructure isnt there yet is all I can think of that could be stopping them.
Whole Foods...the demographics in West Villages doesn't match their target market. They need a younger more affluent demo to thrive. They're trying to sell $4.00 heads of organic lettuce to Millenials, Gen X'ers& wealthy Boomers...that Dog won't hunt in WV's. Whole Foods can hardly make it in SRQ. There's not enough retiree's who'll pay those prices for 7 expensive organic grocers to survive. That niche is way overdone, and I predict 3 of them close w/in 1 year from now.
I think they retailers are waiting for the Braves Stadium to get closer to completion before committing $$$'s, with a good chance that the infrastructures isn't there yet either.
Considering the amount of customers Venice Village Shoppes and the Target/Bealls next door gets, I am surprised they are not better maintained and made more attractive. I was at the Target not long ago and the buildings, landscaping and asphalt parking lot looked run down. I ask this seriously.....does the Venice demographic not care about having these centers appear nice and upscale? Are the commercial owners lazy and cheap?
The clubhouses and entrances to Grand Paradiso and Island Walk make the effort. The residents should demand better of the merchants.
And I agree, maybe whole foods isn't right, but how about a nice Detweilers, or a trader joes? Too many Publix around.
From what information is available it is still talk about replacing the Jacaranda roundabout. Of course something will have to done. Many roads were built ten years or more ago and could not anticipate the amount of future growth in the area. Governments tend to do things very slowly because of the red tape involved. Even the shopping center at the Venice Villages could not foresee how the area would grow. With the West Villages someday becoming a mini city within itself it is going to develop its' own commercial areas. A grocery store will be a vital addition. Regarding the poor condition stated about various store fronts keep in mind that the merchants rarely own the property and it is up to the owner of the property to improve things. Of course the merchants could put pressure on them to do so. As long as the baby boomers head South, Florida will have to continue to improve much of its' infrastructure. The current expansion of I 75 inter state to more lanes is just one example. Will the boom continue, slow down or end is a question no one can answer with any certainty.
duffer47, The boom will very likely continue. Florida's great Winter weather, beaches, and low taxes will continue to lure Northerners. Southeast Florida's overcrowded, and the word has spread throughout the Northeastern U.S.. They're now flocking to our area in large numbers like never before. This Season, there were more New York/New Jersey tags on the roads than any other States, and it wasn't even close. I saw large #'s of Vermont, New Hampshire, & Massachusetts too. 25 years ago, this wasn't the case. Back then it was mostly Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois. I can't see any reason for it to stop, or slow down. Now that ultra-high property taxes in the Northeast can no longer be deducted on federal tax returns, the migration will quicken near-term. Our area still has vast amounts of undeveloped land that acts as a magnet. Developers will develop it, politicians will tax it, and we'll say dam#$% it!
JJGittes65, Lack of competition is why the Venice Village Shoppes are run down. Not for long! Within 2 years, they'll start to lose market share, and start to feel it. They'll refurb, but it won't make much difference as shoppers will opt for the brand new retail centers further East. Only residents w/in very close proximity will remain loyal, and even some of those will move a portion of their spending Eastward.
beach43: Things are certainly booming now. However history shows that we go through cycles of boom and recessions. Another recession could occur at any time. Also over saturation of the building market is another consideration. That is why no one can predict with any certainty what will happen 5, 10 or 20 years from now. The development of more infrastructure is certainly going to cause budget issues with the state, counties and local governments that will have to be resolved. And of course we know who ultimately pays for these additional costs.
duffer, no one person can say with any certainty that the Sun will rise tomorrow, but my life's experiences suggest to me that it will. There's not much in this life that's certain...death & taxes perhaps. It's all about probabilities.
While recessions can occur at any time, there's nothing to suggest to me that one is imminent. GDP is trending upward, and since Trump became President, its upward trend has increased. Unemployment is shrinking, and wages have finally begun to slowly increase again. Consumer confidence, if exponentially smoothed, has risen since Q4 2009. If you are the type that just needs something to fret about, then fret about the national debt, and the recent uptick in inflation. You can fret about the Dow taking a 10% dive in the past few months, and it's still historically overvalued, so more dive to come. Most of the major national economic indicators are favaorable...for now.
Did you know that during the great recession, Florida's population growth only took pause from April 2008 to April 2009, and then renewed its 60 year march upward? 59 of the last 60 years it boomed. Last year, Florida trailed only Texas in population growth. So, even taking the great recession into account, we have a 59 in 60 chance of the boom continuing.
Lack of infrastructure is a short term issue that is easily solved. That may have caused some temporary delays in the boom, but nothing a few extra tax dollars can't resolve. Developers and Government working together can always come up with new ways to take our money to fund infrastructure. The latest money grab is called CDD's. Then, there are all the people who willingly vote to increase their own taxes via SPLOST time and time again. Did you notice the downtown SRQ parking garages are not all free anymore? Its called tax creep.
Worry not duffer, there will be no budget shortfall that slows the Florida Boom anytime soon. You underestimate how easy and fun it is to take then spend other people's money. The Government has an insatiable appetite for higher tax revenues, and there's nothing that can stop it. In fact, there are small Army's of special interest group lobbyists pushing for it, and they hand out free money and stuff like you cannot believe.
Think of it like this...you never have to pay off your credit card bill, and when you reach your limit, you can increase it as much as you want immediatly. That IS Government. There can be no budget shortfalls. Sometimes their papaerwork just gets backed up.
I think your strongest point may be over-building. The greedy developers and politicians here could just get ahead of the ability for Northeasterners to get out from under their tax-burdened homes. I know quite a few people who can't sell their homes in the Northeast and move down here due to declining home values caused by over-taxation. One of them can no longer come up with the $30,000 for annual property taxes in Essex County New Jersey, and can't sell their home for enough to pull the equity they once had out. They are now trapped and upside down on a home that once held $200,000 in equity. While this is an extreme case, this kind of thing is playing out all across the Northeast. There are lots of people trapped in their homes and can't get out to retire to Florida. This could cause a housing glut here in the years ahead.
Thanks for acknowledging the condition of the retail areas mentioned above. I've noted it to some people who just shrugged. It seems like they've never lived anywhere that things are kept up. Say what you want about the UTC area (including the Target strip to the west, and the other stores to the north of the main mall) and Lakewood ranch, but they look nice and maintained, and don't make me feel like I'm slumming when I'm there. I wish I could say the same about most of the shopping areas now along the 41 from the Venice Target two-thirds of the way up to Sarasota. I find it bizarre considering the numbers of upscale communities all the way up, as well as multi million $ homes on the water and beaches that are all over the place. It's like there is a disconnect. I've never seen so many Goodwill and Dollar this or that stores.
And could Costco be in a worse location? It's good for Palmer ranch, but nobody else. It ought to be at the 75 and Clark Rd area, or some such....
I hope the salespeople at the west villages are talking to their bosses, who are talking to their upper management, who are talking to the politicians,,about getting things going in the area. "it's coming" gets old.
I could hit a Driver and a 3-Wood and hit Costco's gas station canopy right now...but not for long. I'm sure they are there due to getting a really cheap lease in a failing old Mall. They feel like the consumers will drive quite a ways to get to their stores, and they are probably right.
As close as we are to Costco currently, we don't go there much. We fill gas tanks and perscriptions there, and that's about it. I just can't eat 12 Green Peppers before they go bad, and we currently don't have room for 32 rolls of toilet paper and 16 rolls of paper towels.
Nonetheless, I warned my wife that we are very spoiled by this location, and when we get to our new home, we're gonna feel like Daniel Boone. We'll have to make monthly expeditions back up this way to stock up on non-perishables, and hit the Venice Detweilers for the rest. Along the way, I'll try not to notice the blighted 1970's strip centers. I noticed One of them was just refurbed, and it looks great. Maybe its th start of a trend.
Beach43: I'm glad to hear you have an optimistic view. My life experiences have told me that there is nothing certain. Probabilities only predict what may happen. They don't guarantee it. World wide events can and do affect the economies of the world. A panic in the stock market of one country can affect other countries as well. Catastrophes, wars, weather events are all unpredictable and can change at a moments notice. A major weather event in Florida could have catastrophic results. We lucked out with Irma. Similar events can affect worldwide economies dramatically. We are no longer isolated from the rest of the world and what affects one will often affect others. I am not a doomsday forecaster but historically the stock market, construction and retail development have gone through periods of booms and bust. I certainly hope the economy will continue to grow. But there is no guarantee to such.
Better be very careful before going with Lennar, either in Gran Paradiso or Sarasota National or their other communities. Gran Paradiso just learned that Lennar has been planning to build a Cell Tower right in the middle of Gran Paradiso! Lennar did not tell anyone, the only way residents found out was thru other sources. Gran Paradiso residents are currently fighting to stop Lennar. Sarasota National maybe next as Lennar has set up an LLC called Lencom LLC- with plans to build Cell Towers in their communities! Buyer Beware!!!!
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