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Reasons why its still too soon to draw a firm conclusion that Omicron is an inheritently more mild strain:
1) Very small sample size
2) Very young demographic infected in South Africa.
3) Many in South Africa previously had Delta - and they may have some immune protection from their previous infection. In other words their infection could be less severe but that does not prove Omicron is inheritently milder than Delta.
4) We need to know more studies from larger groups of people including older people, vaxed/unvaxed, previously infected vs. never infected.
It's quite possible that there could be more breakthrough infections with Omicron - but those infections won't be as serious. But at this point it's still conjecture. Im not saying it is or isn't milder - just that there is not enough information to come to a firm conclusion yet. I suppose for those that prefer to look at the glass half full - some of the very early data looks promising. But IMO for reasons that I've mentioned it's way too early to be certain.
Yes, it is too early to be certain. Hence my first post began "Christmas may have come early." The use of "may" indicated a lack of certainty. Never claimed certainty. Always said possibility. Never even suggested probability. Still don't.
In debate your technique of characterizing what I said as drawing a firm conclusion, which it was not, is called the "straw man." You falsely characterize an argument, that is to say create a straw man, and then refute the absurdity you created.
I appreciate your admission, albeit reluctantly, that Omicron "might be less severe." I respectfully suggest one might even say that the preliminary data gives, dare I say it, a glimmer of hope!
In fact, Dr. Fauci, who in the Christmas theme of this discussion one might view as the Grinch, has actually said that while too early to reach a conclusion there is a basis for "optimism." Imagine this, I am arguing that Fauci is right and you are a greater pessimist! He might even lift a travel ban!!!
Here is a Twitter thread (with charts & graphs) that points out many inconsistencies/questions about the "mild narritive" for Omicron. This thread comes from Deepti Gurdasani (Senior Lecturer @QMUL Epidemiology, statistical genetics, machine learning).
1) The current doubling time of cases in Gauteng is ~3 days. Unfortunately, hospitalisations also appear to be rising rapidly - more than doubling every week.
2) What do we know about these hospitalisations?
1. They are much more in young people compared to previous waves. 2/3rds of admissions are currently under 40 yrs of age compared to 2/3rds being in above 60s in the third wave.
3) Whether this is because of earlier spread in younger people, or a level of protection from infection afforded by vaccines where uptake may be higher in older groups is unclear. Watching this pattern over time should provide more clarity.
4) While the severity of cases admitted currently appears to be lower in older groups, it's much higher in young people, including in children. This is worrying.
5) While on the face of it some might suggest this is good because admissions are milder, the reality is v. concerning. 1st, so far mostly young people have been affected. 2nd, even if the no. of patients needing O2 is lower, numbers are rising v. quickly.
6) So this ultimately means that the number of patients needing oxygen are rising much faster than they did with the delta wave. So although requirements may be lower now, it looks like the potential to overwhelm health services is high.
7) If we switch to a log scale, we can better compare the growth rates:
On current trends, patients on oxy (mostly due to Covid) will soon pass Delta trajectory, and numbers in ICU are also heading up fast (obv be wary of extrapolating ICU trend, where data/reporting is bumpy)
8) And contrary to some recent reports, it does look like the vast majority of admissions are *due to* COVID-19, and not incidental.
9) What about deaths?
It's early days, because there is always a lag between hospitalisations and deaths. But early indicators from Tshwane, which is the epicentre of the outbreak suggests that deaths are beginning to rise too, although still low numbers.
10) The pattern of deaths is concerning. In line with admissions being disproportionately in young people, and young children, although numbers are low to detect a clear pattern, they do seem to be occurring across all ages, including young children.
11) This seems to align with what we're hearing from frontline staff in hospitals in SA- and in keeping with the ministry of health moving to increase paeds ICU capacity
There still isn't any conclusive evidence that Omicron will take over vs. Delta in the USA. Anyway Omicron in Florida was to be expected so I'm not panicking about it. It's quite possible prior Covid-19 infection and/or vaccinations will provide protection to "severe disease". But studies are still ongoing.
Omicron in Florida: Tampa hospital reports first patient with new COVID-19 variant
A Tampa Bay hospital announced its first confirmed case of the new COVID-19 omicron variant on Tuesday.
A spokesperson for James A. Haley Veterans’ Hospital in Tampa confirmed the omicron case in a statement to WFLA.
“The patient is experiencing mild symptoms and had recently returned from international travel,” the spokesperson said. “Our providers were able to quickly detect, test, confirm and add this data to our developing understanding of this strain.”
Scientists say they have identified a “stealth” version of Omicron which cannot be distinguished from other variants using the PCR tests that public health officials deploy to gain a quick picture of its spread around the world.
The stealth variant has many mutations in common with standard Omicron, but it lacks a particular genetic change that allows lab-based PCR tests to be used as a rough and ready means of flagging up probable cases.
The variant is still detected as coronavirus by all the usual tests, and can be identified as the Omicron variant through genomic testing, but likely cases are not flagged up by routine PCR tests that give quicker results.
Researchers say it is too early to know whether the new form of Omicron will spread in the same way as the standard Omicron variant, but that the “stealthy” version is genetically distinct and so may well behave differently.
The stealth variant was first spotted among Covid virus genomes submitted in recent days from South Africa, Australia and Canada, but it may already have spread more widely.
This new information out today confirms what I was expecting. The Pfizer vaccine loses some effectiveness against Omicron - but retains some effectiveness. I don't have the exact percentages at the moment - I'll post it later when I come across further details. Also keep in mind that if a vaccine has lower antbody protection it can still offer protection against severe disease because of heightened T-cell and B-cell response. I think the jury is still out on the ultimate outcome in the real world. (This was a test tube study of blood samples).
The research head of a laboratory at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa has termed the ability of newly detected Omicron variant to escape the vaccine and infection-driven immunity against COVID-19 as “robust but not complete,” Bloomberg reports.
In what could be the first lab-based testing on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the variant, the researchers have found that Omicron could partially evade the protection generated by Pfizer and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. In an online presentation on Tuesday, Alex Sigal said that booster shots could still enhance the protection.
Sigal and the team have evaluated the blood samples of COVID-19 vaccine recipients to determine the antibody levels required to neutralize or block the virus.
Last edited by wondermint2; 12-07-2021 at 03:05 PM..
This new information out today confirms what I was expecting. The Pfizer vaccine loses some effectiveness against Omicron - but retains some effectiveness. I don't have the exact percentages at the moment - I'll post it later when I come across further details. Also keep in mind that if a vaccine has lower antbody protection it can still offer protection against severe disease because of heightened T-cell and B-cell response. I think the jury is still out on the ultimate outcome in the real world. (This was a test tube study of blood samples).
The research head of a laboratory at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa has termed the ability of newly detected Omicron variant to escape the vaccine and infection-driven immunity against COVID-19 as “robust but not complete,” Bloomberg reports.
In what could be the first lab-based testing on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the variant, the researchers have found that Omicron could partially evade the protection generated by Pfizer and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. In an online presentation on Tuesday, Alex Sigal said that booster shots could still enhance the protection.
Sigal and the team have evaluated the blood samples of COVID-19 vaccine recipients to determine the antibody levels required to neutralize or block the virus.
I came across some further information:
COVID-19: Antibodies from Pfizer vaccine may be up to 40 times less effective against Omicron, first lab tests suggest
Antibodies from the Pfizer vaccine may be up to 40 times less effective against Omicron than the original COVID strain, the first lab tests on the new variant in South Africa have shown.
But while its ability to escape vaccine antibodies is significant, it's not complete, and that's good news, says Professor Alex Sigal, virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute, who led the research.
The study found antibodies from people who had been vaccinated as well as naturally infected with COVID were significantly more effective against Omicron - suggesting boosters may bring a significant benefit.
Its ability to escape the vaccine was between five and 10 times better than the Beta variant, which was also first reported in South Africa and previously had the best ability to evade the jab.
Professor Sigal, who heads up the team conducting the tests, believes it's likely Omicron has both an immune escape and a transmission advantage over other variants.
The study is very limited, having looked at blood samples from just 12 people, but it's the first evidence we have about how effective vaccinations could be against the new variant.
"For people who had Prior Covid plus vaccination, the preserved Omicron neutralization level (FRNT) likely reflects solid protection. Not seen with 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine, but would expect that a 3rd shot, with its marked effect on raising nAbs, would simulate that"
*Note: The author (Alex Segal) of the SA study out today mentioned that these results are not estimates for "severe disease" - and that information will be coming over the weekend.
The following is an interesting thread that estimates the reduction of the Pfizer & Moderna vaccine on hospitalizations & symptomatic disease with Omicron (assuming a 40-fold reduction of neutralizing antibodies). Keep in mind there is not a lot of real data at this juncture so these are early rough "estimates".
"Summary
Omicron's 30-40-fold reduction in neut. antibody titers will lead to ESTIMATED:
~10-14% reduction in VE HOSPITALIZATION
~40-60% reduction in SYMPTOMATIC INFECTION
Both of these can be mostly mitigated by 3rd dose booster."
*The following was also mentioned in the same thread:
"A fresh Moderna VE (i.e. 1-2 weeks post dose 2) for SYMPTOMATIC DISEASE was ~95% for original WT virus. w/ Omicron, assuming ~40 fold reduction, VE ~52% (35-60%), close to China's Coronavac vaccine.
Similarly, fresh Pfizer WT VE ~93% w/ Omicron: EXTRAPOLATION: 30% (24-37)."
Last edited by wondermint2; 12-08-2021 at 08:19 AM..
IMO it would be a mistake to think that you're well protected against Omicron with only 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine OR only prior covid infection. 2 doses of vaccine WITH prior infection appears to offer much more protection as does a third booster shot (if you have no prior infection).
Also it would be a mistake to consider Omicron as likely comparable to a cold in severity because of the reports of milder cases in South Africa. This is probably due to previous delta infection offering some protection against severe disease. IMO Omicron is probably on par with Delta in terms of inherent virulence.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb explained it this way:
"The reason why you're seeing less severe disease and fewer hospitalizations relative to cases is many people in South Africa had infection with delta," Gottlieb said. "So when they're getting re-infected with this variant, maybe their delta immunity isn't protective against infection but protecting them against symptomatic disease and severe outcomes."
whew, some of you need to take up a hobby like fishing outside here in beautiful Florida -
nobody's going to change anything, other than your own choices and business, nobody here is going to cure cancer, or worldwide poverty. LOL
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