Should have a great tourist season in Sarasota and Venice (Bradenton: condo, houses)

[beach43ofus]

Can you imagine the home heating bills those folks will have up there this Winter? Oh my.

They could leave and set their thermostats at 45 degrees, instead of 75, and use the savings to pay for a good part of their Florida stay.

They are still coming here, bank on it. Of course, they'll avoid the storm ravaged areas, which will increase the numbers of people elsewhere throughout the state.

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

One of the main dictionaries defines a snowbird as a person who vacations in or moves to a warmer climate during cold weather. Nothing mentioned about length of time spent in the warmer climate.


According to the Farmer's Almanac, winter for much of the Midwest and along the East Coast will be "shivery and snowy." The eastern half of the U.S. can expect potentially record-breaking cold to define the season.

This frigid forecast extends to the Deep South and Texas.

Winter temperatures will be colder than normal across much of the country between the East Coast and Rockies.

Snowfall will be greater than normal from central New England through northern North Carolina, from the Lower Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains, from the northern Plains into eastern Washington, and across the higher terrain of the southern Rockies and California.

Freezing temperatures will also bring above-average snow totals to most areas in the eastern U.S. that typically experience snowfall.


If the almanac comes close to being right on their predictions for the winter of 2022 - 2023, snowbirds will be flocking to warmer places such as FL, regardless of Ian. Snow and bone chilling cold have a way of motivating people.

[1rainman]

[1rainman]

Snow birds typically own a house down here or stay with relatives or camp in an RV or tent for several months. They live here. A tourist stays in a hotel usually for a week or two.

But I have to second the statement people are already moving out of this area. I have been here my whole life never seen anything like it. The past year or two almost every working person I talk to is moving out of here for a variety of reasons but the huge increase in rent and overcrowding is the big one. At the same time we have record breaking numbers of people moving in and massive building.

They have always paid poverty wages here and treat their workers like garbage but there's always new suckers just turning 16 and entering the work force or new people moving down so they stay staffed. Yet it all changed recently. Every restaurant I go to is so short handed they have to close on certain days or dining room closed sometimes just a massive labor shortage like I have never seen. Yes it's everywhere in the USA but it's much worse here around port Charlotte and south Florida. They had to offer teachers free housing in fort Myers because teachers couldn't even afford to live here.

I just think two things will happen. The housing market will have to go down at some point and the population growth will have to taper off. Wages will have to rise but Florida hates paying people a living wage so they might find a way out of that.

A lot of people don't know Chinese people all buy real estate as a sort of retirement plan. They build apartments in China that are empty. No one lives in them they just sell the apartments as investments. Well their real estate market collapsed. Now the richer Chinese are buying up Florida driving up a housing bubble here on top of the new yorkers and Californians moving here. But they also drive it up in California.

[JBtwinz]

I think a lot of those tourists or snowbirds headed for the area IAN devastated have already started inquiring for dates elsewhere.

We have a friend who works for the Omni here on Amelia Island and they have already had inquires and have received reservations from those that had reservations on Sanibel. We do get cool here in the winter though.

Years ago when the gulf suffered the oil spills we were slammed with tourists.

It is going to be tough for those areas hit by IAN, first COVID-19 then finally when things start getting back to to normal this happens.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I wonder how long people must stay in Florida to be considered Snow Birds, and not tourists?

I think of tourists as people who stay 1 day upto 6 weeks, 6 weeks being mostly Europeans....remember them?

Tourism will suffer in the Ian ravaged areas, but some snow birds will return if their place down here is okay.

People relocating to Florida full time will just keep coming, but the rate will slow a bit for a while. Not just due to Ian, but also for economic reasons...inflation, recession, stock market dip, & interest rates for those who need a mortgage.

Also got to factor in how many might just leave as well, especially the newer ones who never lived in a hurricane prone area.

I got neighbors down the street who leave whenever a storm approaches. They lived on the east coast during the 2004 season and got hit by Jeanne and Frances. They literally have PTSD from it and got out of dodge when Ian came. Their house from Ian needs a new roof now. They freak out whenever there is a hurricane out there. They're from FL however so it's not likely they will move.

Now many of the snowbirds who have manufactured homes down here will be another story from Venice on down to Naples. Many of them didn't get tossed around like Andrew or Charley because they're secured better but many of them also were heavily damaged with their roofs peeled back like a can of soup or walls blown out. Might have lost those snowbirds by the thousands for this season.

lets say next year a similar storm hits SW Florida once again like a cat4 and does tremendous damage.

What do you think of the future of SWFL if two or three years in a row it's ravaged by major hurricanes that produce massive storm surge like Ian?

The 1920s thru 1940s were some nasty hurricane seasons for Florida. If we had that today FL would be locked in an economic depression. Probably would be a rural state with mostly tourist stuff like hotels. SEFL got pounded a lot.

Excluding the 2004 hurricane season, Florida has been very lucky since the mid 1960s.

[wondermint2]

Tourism efforts resume in Sarasota-Manatee after Hurricane Ian

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...an/8166914001/

"As Southwest Florida begins the long recovery process from Hurricane Ian, tourism officials in Sarasota and Manatee counties are working to make sure visitors know the area is open for business.

Although most of the region's major tourist attractions were spared from Ian's devastation — with a few notable exceptions, like the Venice Theatre — it's tough to explain that to potential visitors, who see images of a wrecked Fort Myers Beach on their television screens and social media feeds."

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Now many of the snowbirds who have manufactured homes down here will be another story from Venice on down to Naples. Many of them didn't get tossed around like Andrew or Charley because they're secured better but many of them also were heavily damaged with their roofs peeled back like a can of soup or walls blown out. Might have lost those snowbirds by the thousands for this season.

Here's an example of a mobile home park in Englewood that got hit hard.

Englewood mobile home park destroyed after Ian

https://www.winknews.com/2022/10/13/...yed-after-ian/

"Mobile Gardens in Englewood was hit hard by Hurricane Ian. Most of the 240 mobile homes there are totaled or have significant damage.

It’s enough for some to think they can never rebuild and that it’s perhaps time to move on. But the community is now rallying around one another, keeping everyone fed, clean and full of hope."

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

What I'm scared of!! My business is in ft myers so even if its up and running by December I'm basically f*cked because of ft myers beach, naples, etc. No spring breakers!!

Could be a 2 year thing too.

Move it to another flea market further North...Red Barn in Bradenton gets great foot traffic.

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by CafeDeLaMaison

Remember, hurricane season ain't over - then there is next year, the year after that, and so on...


It's going to take more than 2 years for most of the area to recover, and housing has SLOWED tremendously throughout the nation.


All of these markets are poised for a backoff if not a correction ...just based on rates, construction costs, labour problems, and just "time" to build or re-build.

I've been hearing the wait for roofs is a year-plus. It was 4-7 months pre-hurricane. People will be waiting 2 years for a roof???

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

I've been hearing the wait for roofs is a year-plus. It was 4-7 months pre-hurricane. People will be waiting 2 years for a roof???

Neighbors down the street lived on the East coast in 2004 when Jeanne and Frances hit. Took them a year to get a roof. Then again FL was hit by 4 storms that year.

A couple people in my sub division already got new roofs! Can't see how insurance approved in that fast unless they had 20k cash to fork over.