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I wasn't there; and about the only person I know on the forum who was is CountrySue (there may be others).
However, I attended 3 National Hurricane Conferences there, two prior to and one right after Katrina. I knew most of the "official" people involved in the preparations - and then the cleanup. This is the information I received from them at the conference following Katrina.
Prior to Katrina, the City of New Orleans had received many Federal grants (they were quite proud of them) to build their response and mitigation thresholds. They had state-of-the-art response vehicles, communication systems, and a fully delineated plan in place to accomodate injuries, illnesses, and housing, feeding, and care of those afflicted by any disaster. (Yes, those school buses you saw on TV were a part of that plan for evacuation.) They were in communication with outlying, inner towns like Baton Rouge for evacuation preps. They really had their stuff together - on paper - and were touted by FEMA as being well-prepared and ready. They knew how long it would take to evacuate, they knew what disasters to prep for - on paper. What they didn't know was:
1)the levees - which they were assured by politicians and Corps of Engineers' reps alike were well-funded for repairs and strong and sturdy - had not been worked on, repaired, or maintained, and that the money given to NO for that maintenance had been spent on other things.
2) That the politicians would ignore the well-drawn-out plans for mitigation and evacuation, and instead 'do what we've always done' - which was put people in the dome and not force them to evacuate. Those plans were all ready to go, very delineated, very precise - at such and such hour of the threat, we'll do this, food and water to be distributed here and here, forced evacuation to start within so many hours - but the politicians refused to implement the plan until it was too late to do so, insisting that "it wasn't going to be that bad" (and then had a ready scapegoat). Although residents were told to evacuate in a reasonable time frame, the attitude of the governing authorities was 'we don't want to panic anyone or force them from their homes for nothing' - and so waited until it was too late.
3) Communication of the impending threat with the people of NO was difficult. The general attitude was - we've never had a bad hurricane before, we'll be fine; or God has always protected the City; or we'll do as we please, government bureaucrats can't tell us what to do. They refused to be evacuated, and instead insisted that they were going to stay. Had the Mitigation team actually communicated the plan, and practiced it with the people (not just within their own net), and informed the people that when they were told to get out they were to do so, and what support plans were in place, they might have had a better response.
4) For two days before Katrina, buses were coming in from cities like Detroit, Chicago, and New York, and dropping off hundreds of people who boldly said that they had come there because there would be no law enforcement and that they could loot without fear of being stopped or thwarted after the hurricane.
All of these situations were a 'perfect storm' of impending doom. There were a lot more - I talked to literally everyone that week, and everyone had a story to share, even the sweet girl who drove the horse-drawn carriage and a cab driver - about what they did, what was done, and who did it (like the 48 FEMA representatives who, after the hurricane, were supposed to be there supervising the cleanup and the assistance to the people, and who were busted for getting drunk, harassing the girls, and tearing up a strip joint on Bourbon Street) - and this much I learned (OK, I knew it already, but this really pointed it out)
No mitigation plan is worth a damn if the information you have is not accurate.
No mitigation plan is worth a damn if you have not repetitively repeated it, practiced it, and made a point of communicating every nuance of it to the people involved.
No politician will tell the truth to his/her constituents, especially in situations where lives are at stake.
No government bureaucrat is ever there to help you, especially after a disaster. They are there to enhance their own lives and job positions. Those 48 people were never prosecuted, because 1) they were in a disaster area where local government had both lost control and facilities, and 2) they were Federal employees and the Feds told the locals they were immune from prosecution.
Many people become vicious, lying, stealing, murderous animals in even the threat of a disaster. Their 'mitigation plan' is to serve themselves, and they will kick anyone and anything out of their way to do so - even before the disaster, but especially afterwards. Unless you know someone very intimately, you never know which ones will turn on you - neighbors, friends, business associates.
Not to be mean but here goes....It should teach people that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
National Geographic, a few years BEFORE Katrina clearly laid out what was going to happen when a CAT3 or better finally got around to hitting NO again. They noted how they destroyed the mangrove buffer against storm surge, how much the city lay below sea level, the rising ocean temperatures (more and stronger hurricanes) and also noted the previous TWENTY SEVEN times it had happened in the previous 200 years or so. They noted that the levees would NOT withstand a CAT3....then when the levees collapse under a massive storm surge people start suggesting they were "blown up" in ignorance.
I mean you could have the ULTIMATE survival layout but if you built it in the shadow of Mt. Saint Helens while it was rumbling a few decades back you died. So, location location location.
The Los Angeles Times also had a lengthy, detailed article several years before Katrina about the vulnerability of New Orleans to a direct hit by a major hurricane. I don't know if it was before or after the National Georgraphic piece, which I don't remember seeing. So as you say, the handwriting was on the wall, but people would rather be in denial. Major hurricanes cause destruction and death, but New Orleans and Katrina represented a greater order of magnitude, and thus a greater monument to human folly, the folly being lack of maintenance of the levees and lack of awareness of the potential. I don't know of any place in the United States more vulnerable to such major destruction and loss of life; even a major earthquake near Los Angeles or San Francisco probably would not cause as much. At least they knew in advance the hurricane was coming, and everyone could have evacuated. But there had been "false alarms" in the past when hurricanes veered away from New Orleans at the last minute.
I grew up along the Central Gulf Coast from 1959 (age 13) through 1988 (age 42). I am a first-hand witness to some of the biggest large-scale disasters (Hurricanes Betsy, Camille and Frederic), and both the best and worst of human responses to same.
Lesson 1: Never depend on government to ensure your survival or well-being.
Lesson 2: Re-read Lesson 1.
^^^^Amen. Especially with oh....2-3 days warning. Katrina was not a sudden event like earthquake, tsunami, tornado etc.
Imagine what a serious event out of Las Palmas would do.....
The Los Angeles Times also had a lengthy, detailed article several years before Katrina about the vulnerability of New Orleans to a direct hit by a major hurricane. I don't know if it was before or after the National Georgraphic piece, which I don't remember seeing. So as you say, the handwriting was on the wall, but people would rather be in denial. Major hurricanes cause destruction and death, but New Orleans and Katrina represented a greater order of magnitude, and thus a greater monument to human folly, the folly being lack of maintenance of the levees and lack of awareness of the potential. I don't know of any place in the United States more vulnerable to such major destruction and loss of life; even a major earthquake near Los Angeles or San Francisco probably would not cause as much. At least they knew in advance the hurricane was coming, and everyone could have evacuated. But there had been "false alarms" in the past when hurricanes veered away from New Orleans at the last minute.
Good post. The difference this time though was that Katrina was so HUGE it couldn't miss new orleans and had a storm surge more like a bad CAT4 just due to the size of the storm.
San Fran is going to get brutalized in my lifetime...especially the whole district built on the fill of the last "big one". St. Louis probably too since they are rare but severe and don't have the earthquake building codes other places do.
National Geographic, a few years BEFORE Katrina clearly laid out what was going to happen when a CAT3 or better finally got around to hitting NO again.
Note to those who do not know. The "again" emphasis in Mathguy's post probably refers to the fact that Hurricane Betsy, back in 1965, did very much the same thing as Katrina. This included one or more levee breaches and flooding in the Lower Ninth Ward.
Now, never mind National Geographic and the LA Times. The New Orleans Times Picayune ran a multi-part story of the likely consequences of a Cat 3 storm, a full two years before Katrina. About a year before Katrina there was even a 1-hour documentary on a major cable network (forgot which one, but I watched it) that spelled out, in words, computer simulations and graphics, the likely consequences.
In other words, what Katrina did to New Orleans and large expanses of the central Gulf Coast (there was 15 feet of water in downtown Mobile AL) was totally predictable; it has happened before.
What happened to the people was the result of the complete failure of government at all levels -- local, state and federal -- to do what it was supposed to do, and in fact had plans to do.
You see, in every city and town there is a portion of the population that cannot self-evacuate. Many of them are poor. Some don't have cars, or access to cars. Some are medically infirm. Some are very old, or very young. These are the ones government must consider, and provide for in some way.
In New Orleans they were mostly poor. In large portions of New York City they would not be, but should an evacuation become necessary they would have to rely on public transportation to get them out. If the cabs, buses, subways and trains were to stop running, hundreds of thousands of gainfully employed and reasonably affluent New Yorkers would be unable to evacuate.
In Katrina this portion of the population was overlooked, ignored, forgotten, or given bad instructions. The news stories and images that came out of the flooded New Orleans neighborhoods, and the Superdome, in the days and weeks after Katrina are a terrible reminder.
The simple fact is that Government failed, and thousands died as a direct result. There is no way to deny it, or draw a smiley-face on it. So, as I wrote before:
Lesson 1: Never depend on government to ensure your survival or well-being.
Lesson 2: Re-read Lesson 1.
-- Nighteyes
Last edited by Nighteyes; 07-18-2011 at 10:17 AM..
Note to those who do not know. The "again" emphasis in Mathguy's post probably refers to the fact that Hurricane Betsy, back in 1965, did very much the same thing as Katrina. This included multiple levee breaches and extensive flooding.
Now, never mind National Geographic and the LA Times. The New Orleans Times Picayune ran a multi-part story of the likely consequences of a Cat 3 storm, a full two years before Katrina. About a year before Katrina there was even a 1-hour documentary on a major cable network (forgot which one, but I watched it) that spelled out, in words, computer simulations and graphics, the likely consequences.
In other words, what Katrina did to New Orleans and large expanses of the central Gulf Coast (there was 15 feet of water in downtown Mobile AL) was totally predictable; it has happened before.
What happened to the people was the result of the complete failure of government at all levels -- local, state and federal -- to do what it was supposed to do, and in fact had plans to do.
You see, in every city and town there is a portion of the population that cannot self-evacuate. Many of them are poor. Some don't have cars, or access to cars. Some are medically infirm. Some are very old, or very young. These are the ones government must consider, and provide for in some way.
In New Orleans they were mostly poor. In large portions of New York City they would not be, but should an evacuation become necessary they would have to rely on public transportation to get them out. If the cabs, buses, subways and trains were to stop running, hundreds of thousands of gainfully employed and reasonably affluent New Yorkers would be unable to evacuate.
In Katrina this portion of the population was overlooked, ignored, forgotten, or given bad instructions. The news stories and images that came out of the flooded New Orleans neighborhoods, and the Superdome, in the days and weeks after Katrina are a terrible reminder.
The simple fact is that Government failed, and thousands died as a direct result. There is no way to deny it, or draw a smiley-face on it. So, as I wrote before:
Lesson 1: Never depend on government to ensure your survival or well-being.
Lesson 2: Re-read Lesson 1.
-- Nighteyes
A lot of people ignored the warnings, didn't\couldn't even do the bare minimum to prep.
In a free country there is only so much the government can actually do without being facist and controlling. We cannot even institutionalize people that aren't a danger to themselves or others and so we have a number of homeless wandering around yelling at trees and sleeping on storm grates.
We cannot make people evacuate or even do the barest minimums like oh...show up to the super dome with $6 worth of food and a jug of free water?
100% agree with not relying on the government....and at the same time though there needs to also be some personal responsibility.
This National Geographic documentary keeps being brought up, I would hope that no one is implying that based on a 1 hour documentary 3 years before this event occurred that the people should have moved? Hmmm let’s take a poll if you went up to your employer and told them "Sir I am taking a month off because on National Geographic they said we are going to die when the next storm hits" you think he would give you leave? Of course not lets not be so neive. We can blame New Orleans Citizens all day long about how they ignored signs, shouldnt have had jobs and been watching National Geoprhic all day! People have lives people i work and go to school and dont watch TV for months sometimes or the news. How dare you tell me because i dont watch TV i deserve to die?! Its the governments fault for not telling those citizens you will die if you stay here. I know they wouldnt have stayed then, and if the government cant force people out of there homes then thats fine....but you really think millions because thats how many people stayed said hmmmm that tv reporter said we are going to die if we stay lets just ride it out! NO they alerted citizens at the last minute that it was a CATERORY 5! Our government has gotten away with alot, and if we blindly sit there and make excuses for there mistakes they will never be held accountable. One thing i know for sure is some people lack a simple human trait on this thread and thats empathy! Let’s see why haven’t all the people who work at Yellow Stone Park stop working there, or the people who live close by? National Geographic had a similar documentary saying it could blow at any moment right! I think its because those people have jobs and lives and can’t just move without planning which can take years.
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This National Geographic documentary keeps being brought up, I would hope that no one is implying that based on a 1 hour documentary 3 years before this event occurred that the people should have moved? Hmmm let’s take a poll if you went up to your employer and told them "Sir I am taking a month off because on National Geographic they said we are going to die when the next storm hits" you think he would give you leave? Of course not lets not be so neive. We can blame New Orleans Citizens all day long about how they ignored signs, shouldnt have had jobs and been watching National Geoprhic all day! People have lives people i work and go to school and dont watch TV for months sometimes or the news. How dare you tell me because i dont watch TV i deserve to die?! Its the governments fault for not telling those citizens you will die if you stay here. I know they wouldnt have stayed then, and if the government cant force people out of there homes then thats fine....but you really think millions because thats how many people stayed said hmmmm that tv reporter said we are going to die if we stay lets just ride it out! NO they alerted citizens at the last minute that it was a CATERORY 5! Our government has gotten away with alot, and if we blindly sit there and make excuses for there mistakes they will never be held accountable. One thing i know for sure is some people lack a simple human trait on this thread and thats empathy! Let’s see why haven’t all the people who work at Yellow Stone Park stop working there, or the people who live close by? National Geographic had a similar documentary saying it could blow at any moment right! I think its because those people have jobs and lives and can’t just move without planning which can take years.
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Moving is a long-term sollution and impossible for some.
The next best thing is preparedness (hence the thread category).
If you don't get the idea of at a minimum gathering some food and water and getting to higher ground as sage council then there is little more I can add.
I feel bad for those that made a tragic mistake in underestimating the danger or that were too sick to be moved or perhaps mentally ill and homeless and so on.
However, most of the deaths occurred DURING the hurricane and the government screwed up in compounding the misery in their timely response.
If Bush etc. had been more on the ball it wasn't going to save some guy that got trapped and drowned in his attic....but it would have helped the people that went hungry and thirsty for days. See, this is what we are discussing....the fact that the government CANNOT always save you.
Just like there are guys out surfing 50 foot waves in CA a couple months back and one of them drowned. Are we to rail against the government for thier lack of nannying the surfers or allow for personal responsibility and freedom?
Not to be nasty, but practically speaking, how many people in Section 8 housing do you think watch National Geographic? Or read long explanatory newspaper/magazine articles on the potential dangers of a hurricane - especially when the sky is blue and the sun is shining, and there's jazz, and tourists throwing money away down on Bourbon Street? Life goes on, bo da dee, bo da do...
You cannot demand that people evacuate. You cannot terrify them - and then have the hurricane pass them by, and expect that they will follow you when you shout "The Sky Is Falling! It REALLY IS - This Time!"
I love all of the Weather Channel's "It Could Happen Tomorrow!" and the National Geographic's apocalyptic end times dissertations, everything from Biblical Rapture to 2012. They are great entertainment. But how many people do you think will sit down for an hour and watch a show about their city or area, and say, "OH CRAP! It REALLY COULD happen! I'm gonna prepare!" C'mon, guys - the people of Pompeii didn't flee even though Vesuvius gave warning for days - warnings that they had all experienced before, with even a devastating earthquake 17 years earlier. Yet the people still kept and rebuilt their town at the mountain's base! We -most of us -are no smarter today.
Most poor people expect government to take care of them since they 'cannot take care of themselves' (or they have been encouraged to believe that they cannot). Did you notice the hundreds of cars in the flooded areas? The people who owned these cars "could have" used them to flee - but they did not, some from stubborness, some from ignorance, and some because they had not gotten their entitlement checks that month and/or had nowhere to go. Many did flee, nevertheless - and many stayed, denying the possibilities, sure that they would be taken care of. You cannot help, you cannot teach, you cannot advise such people. Nor can you save them all, or even most.
In our area after Katrina, we did come up with a way to make people think about staying during impending hurricanes. Our police officers were provided with boxes of permanent-ink Sharpies. As they went door to door, they were advising people to leave. When people refused, the officers would hand them a Sharpie, and ask that they write each person's social security number on their left upper arm, on the inside. When asked why, the officer would say calmly, "So in case the worst happens, we can identify the bodies more easily." That worked very efficiently with a minimum of time and expense. But many people, from 79 AD to the present day, simply will not listen.
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It would have been easy to ignore the warning
Angry at the blatant ignorance
