Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
How aware are you? How finely tuned are your senses of how things are going?
Mine are not always too reliable. So I'm asking the rest of you, because I'm suddenly feeling that things are about to get a whole lot worse, mostly economically. It's just something in the air. It's got me checking on my preps, my extended family, my gardens and livestock. For some reason, I just feel as if we are closer than ever. Closer than I felt about it in 2008.
There just doesn't seem to be any money around. Business is not so good in the northeast. Stores are closing. Fewer new cars being sold. Fewer buyers for real estate. Loans harder to get. More desperation from retailers, to get us to buy.
Anybody else noticing this? If so, what else are you noticing? How is this affecting you personally? Perhaps you haven't noticed anything at all? Take a few moments, if you haven't. That hum, the wheels of business...have you noticed the sudden quiet?
The spring peepers are especially loud this year, by comparison.
I'm no financial guru..... And can't speak for what I think is going on with the economy in general, BUT I think Real Estate is in a huge bubble right now. My wife's co workers are snatching up $300,000-$400,000 mortgages right now like they are candy. We don't have a mortgage, she makes the same (or even more) as them, and we definitely couldn't afford a giant mortgage like that. I don't know where the magic money is coming from....
Everyone's house is going up in value and fast. I spent a few weeks in south Florida this past winter and everyone and their mom is a house flipper again. My friends down there are making hand over fist buying low percentage mortgages, painting them and cleaning them up and re-selling for a nice profit. It's like 2006 all over again, like they never learned. Of course values are going to continue to rise they say. They claim real estate is not in a bubble right now and things are normal and different this time. I don't buy it. The getting is good right now, but eventually people are going to get burned, and bad again.
Even if things are normal..... How does a young person entering the housing market afford these out of control costs? The down payment aside, people are betting they will have good jobs and be able to afford these for the next 30 years. This can't end well. I see lots of foreclosures and a sharp correction on the horizon, but everyone thinks I'm nuts. I want to snatch up a bunch of inexpensive property when everyone is fleeing Alaska due to losing their jobs.
It sure does smell like 2006-2008 all over again to me. I'm sure I'm missing out on all sorts of gains but playing it safe after getting burned in 08.
When everyone is losing their s***, I want to have enough assets to pick it all up on the cheap. I'm also staying debt free right now.
"The trend is your friend, and it continues, until it ends"
Last edited by 6.7traveler; 03-30-2017 at 08:06 PM..
There may be a sudden change in the economy, but it would be on the scale of the Great Depression (nothing to sneeze at, mind you), and not apocalyptic, the end of civilization.
Still, it is the reason people prepare for self-reliance.
I haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary where I live or work. And where I work my company is a supplier to many diverse industrial and commercial customers and producers and business isn't down or slower.. I will keep my eyes out for any analomy.
I have a couple friends and a brother in the building industry, they're pretty slow right now, but my BIL and Nephew do plumbing and they're so busy they can't hope to keep up with renovations and fix ups.
My friends selling firearms have noticed a real decline in sales, but the ones in the restaurant industry are seeing an uptick in their receipts.
My knife and tool sales for the stuff I make are holding steady, and I have a couple big shows lined up that I've been invited to for this summer where I can sell specialty weapons and such.
I know cattle prices have been in the toilet, but then Brazil was found to be bribing inspectors to pass rotted meat and were mixing soybeans and cardboard into their hamburger, so their sales tanked and the US prices went up by about 40 cents last weekend.
A friend of mine that is trying to get a new company off the ground couldn't find investors for the past 8 years, but now they're knocking on his door with cash in hand.
The businessmen I know are looking to invest in things they put off for 8 years, and there are good jobs out there looking for people where for the past 8 years it was tough to find any job outside of minimum wage stuff and part time.
In my primary job alone, there will be about 6 openings in the next couple months, and the starting wage there is in the $18 - $22/hour range with full benefits including pension, full medical/dental/eye insurance, 3 weeks paid vacation to start and 9 paid holidays. This spring alone I have been given 8 temporary workers to try and keep up with the workload in addition to the permanent employees I already have.
In the 24 years I've worked here, I've never seen that kind of hiring frenzy.
My niece is graduating college in May with a degree in Criminal Justice/Paralegal, and there are at least 4 employers already talking to her about positions, and a friend of mine I spoke to yesterday said she would mention my niece to some of her business friends because they've been looking for someone that can navigate in law.
My other nephew is in school for Electrical Engineering, last summer between his freshman sophomore year, he got a paid internship with travel expenses, room and board for the summer from a prospective employer, and he got another internship with the same benefits as last year with another company.
I see a lot of optimism out there, but there is a strong undercurrent of caution as well from folks that survived Obama wanting to be able to work again, but afraid it's just a bubble.
I always play my cards close to my vest, but I see a lot of hope out there.
The economy here is really good. Commercial buildings going up, new residential areas being developed and jobs are plentiful.
Back in 2009 and 2010 I drove over the road in an 18 wheeler and it was very obvious that some areas of the country were being devastated while at the same time some others were doing great. It may just be the queasy time in-between the industrial economy giving way to the consumer economy that we have today because the heavy industrial areas seem the like the most devastated.
The percentage chance of some significate changes coming are high. With a new US administration, the world seemingly at war in many corners that could suck us in at any time, bond market teetering and the stock market at or near all time highs, a smart person would understand that the collapse or worsening of any of these could drag all the rest down. This could start the beginning of the next depression.
Back in 2009 and 2010 I drove over the road in an 18 wheeler and it was very obvious that some areas of the country were being devastated while at the same time some others were doing great.
I agree that this is very location specific. Some areas are seeing crazy economic growth. Bidding wars on houses over the asking price on the first day, construction equipment all over every vacant piece of land in a 30 mile radius,etc. while other areas (without the jobs) are sinking deeper and deeper into recession or worse.
It's all about a relative few economic hot spots, while the rural areas dwindle and get left behind. It's also all about perception. Someone in Seattle probably thinks the economy is better than ever, while someone in BFE Mississippi sees depression on the horizon.
The Northeast is mostly liberal so what you are seeing may be a consequence of their fears about our new administration.
There is a lot of optimism in my area.
There may be a lot to what you say there.
In my state, while rural areas are heavily dependent on agriculture and those variable prices, there are only a couple areas that have strong liberal presence.
I see a lot of business startups in small rural towns from people selling stuff over the internet, new growth in housing, small landholders working niche markets for some odd things, for instance there are several people raising yaks here, and using the shed undercoat for making yarn. Apparently there's a pretty good market for that
We just sold one of our dogs to a lady whose entire business is raising Icelandic Sheep, and spinning yarn for sale to specialty knitters and weavers all over the world. She needed one of our dogs to handle the sheep, so our little specialty kennel selling Heritage Scotch Collies is doing pretty well too. Our next litter is already sold, (not born yet, but sold), and we have inquiries for more dogs as soon as they're available.
A lot of the start ups I see and work with through the Extension Service are folks selling goat cheese or soap, specialty vegetables and fruits, or other things they can raise either the product or make on the farm. One couple I talked to earlier this week just started a business selling cherry juice! Great stuff, and every bottle they can make is being sold through the concessioners at Glacier and Yellowstone parks. They will have to expand before they can even start to keep up with demand.
I talk to other blacksmiths, many of them are busy making things like wrought iron hinges and latches or decorative metalwork for fireplaces or kitchens to order they sell all over the world over the net. Others like me make tools and weapons, I sell by word of mouth only, no advertisement because I only do it part time, but all of us are about maxed out on how much we can make as there is a real demand out there for this kind of thing.
It seems that conservative areas are busting at the seams with optimism and opportunity they want to exploit before it's gone, the liberal areas are more depressed.
Montana is one of the leading states for small business start ups according to the SBA, last year we were #1. There's never a lot of money here, so people hustle and many work 2 jobs or more.
Missoula is the liberal bastion of the state, and Bozeman around the college, both those areas are pretty stagnate, in fact, the friends of mine in construction that are seeing a slowdown are in those 2 cities.
Can't explain it, just what I see.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
