Doesn't sound like Stenger is interested in discussing City-County merger or reunification....

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by Chicago76

It's stuff I compiled as part of a research project for the census. Would be happy to share a map if you're interested, but the data is at the township level (the lowest level) and unlike a lot of the Midwest, where township boundaries are more tangible because they align with school districts, here it seems like they mean nothing to people. So just posting the numbers probably isn't going to help.

With respect to the bigger picture (STL County decline), IMO it boils down to location and housing qualities. Homes in that primary job corridor of Downtown-SLU/SLU Hospital-WashUHospital-Clayton-Olive/270 will hold up pretty well thanks to proximity. Beyond that in the county, neighborhoods need to be able to sell themselves on something other than "newest housing area with all the home bells and whistles preferred in the last 10 years".

Those things change. Post-war housing through 1969 was highly desirable at one time. Now it's not. Homes are bigger. They have more bathrooms, higher ceilings, avoid a split level layout, etc. The only thing keeping people in these communities is relative housing quality vs. the latest stuff. It's not schools. People with means can find a similar district elsewhere, and then the older housing stock district declines with outbound migration. I'm not saying 50s and 60s homes are awful, just that they're not as broadly appealing and we have a ton of them. If they're in a municipality in the middle of the action like a Kirkwood, Brentwood, Webster Groves, Creve Coeur, etc, then they're fine. Otherwise, it's a tough road. 70s housing stock is starting to see the same decline.

All of it happened up in North County first, because there was a visual change to the population. Whites move out for the next best thing. African Americans move in from the city. There is an obvious visual confirmation and people get scared and more leave. In South County its more subtle. More middle class white communities skew more poor and working class white. It's not as obvious, so it doesn't feed on itself as much, but it's happening. And it will likely continue to happen in places that might seem ridiculous today.

Take Ballwin. It's reasonably well off today, but its getting much older and income has dropped in that area relative to a lot of older county areas that are more centrally located.

The future is probably historic city neighborhoods, the central older suburbs and whatever the flavor of the month is in fringe suburban development. That will exclude a lot of STL County.

Thanks. I'm curious what the data shows for Kirkwood. I'm seeing more and more older homes getting knocked down with new very expensive homes going up. I assume it is getting more affluent - but there are also a lot of apartments and still a fairly large stock of smaller, older homes.

And as you've stated it here, I think I agree with you. It's the blanket statements about the entire county declining that I reacted to. It's not. Large parts of it may be.

As for Ballwin, I don't get out that way much, but I'm wondering if you are starting to see the older subdivisions homes there getting replaced with newer, bigger ones or not.

[Chicago76]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

Thanks. I'm curious what the data shows for Kirkwood. I'm seeing more and more older homes getting knocked down with new very expensive homes going up. I assume it is getting more affluent - but there are also a lot of apartments and still a fairly large stock of smaller, older homes.

And as you've stated it here, I think I agree with you. It's the blanket statements about the entire county declining that I reacted to. It's not. Large parts of it may be.

As for Ballwin, I don't get out that way much, but I'm wondering if you are starting to see the older subdivisions homes there getting replaced with newer, bigger ones or not.

Kirkwood was +4 pts over the city. The township to the east that included Webster, Maplewood, Shrewsbury was +6.5 pts. I haven't been to Ballwin recently, but I can't imagine there are teardowns. The location isn't as central and it doesn't have the town center thing going for it. It's a standard suburb you can find all over the metro. It also doesn't have prices that justify the cost. There are very small pockets of homes going for over 600 in Ballwin. Mostly newer, small developments of big homes. Their bread and butter is 150 to 400 and you probably wouldn't see someone willing to buy at 150, pay to demo and grade a site, and then build the only 600k home in a large subdivision. The cost vs final home value difference isn't there.

Not when you can build new in another suburban development a couple miles away in the same school district.

Edit: should also add that the township most of Ballwin is in declined abt 12 pts vs the city IIRC.

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by Chicago76

Kirkwood was +4 pts over the city. The township to the east that included Webster, Maplewood, Shrewsbury was +6.5 pts. I haven't been to Ballwin recently, but I can't imagine there are teardowns. The location isn't as central and it doesn't have the town center thing going for it. It's a standard suburb you can find all over the metro. It also doesn't have prices that justify the cost. There are very small pockets of homes going for over 600 in Ballwin. Mostly newer, small developments of big homes. Their bread and butter is 150 to 400 and you probably wouldn't see someone willing to buy at 150, pay to demo and grade a site, and then build the only 600k home in a large subdivision. The cost vs final home value difference isn't there.

Not when you can build new in another suburban development a couple miles away in the same school district. ??

Edit: should also add that the township most of Ballwin is in declined abt 12 pts vs the city IIRC.

Thanks. What does the scale mean? What does +4 mean? And how is Webster and Maplewood +6?

[Chicago76]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

Thanks. What does the scale mean? What does +4 mean? And how is Webster and Maplewood +6?

It's all relative to St. Louis City. So if Household income went up 10% in St. Louis City, then 4 pts in Kirkwood is the same thing as saying it went up 14%.

Areas in the county that are lagging St. Louis City just a bit (say, they're 0-4 pts below St. Louis City's growth) are still doing relatively well because they are starting from a higher earnings base. It's a lot easier to increase income from 30 to 33K than it is to increase it 60 to 66K. I interpreted things as areas that are really lagging (10 pts or more) from the city are either the spots currently in trouble (like N City) or spots that really need to be on the radar over the next 20 years: decent sized portions of S. County with older subdivisions, not so great locations vs. major employers, and nothing that really sets them apart (like an old commercial district to promote walkability/something out of the "subdivision norm").