The Ongoing Crime Stats Debate (St. Louis, Clayton: rent, crime rate, loans)

[steindle]

In anticipation of my move to St. Louis, I was throwing together all sorts of crime stats in an effort to find a place that is relatively safe while still having most amenities. As my two sources of data, I used the SLPD's Crime Stats (http://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/AAR04MM_20040601.pdf) and the City's most recent (2000) Census data for each neighborhood (City of St. Louis Neighborhood Data Profiles (http://stlcin.missouri.org/nbr/getneigh.cfm - broken link)).

As it stands, the SLPD's "Total Index Crime" struck me as much too simplistic. It is a total tally of crime in each neighborhood rather than a more telling "crime per 100,000" stat. Obviously a neighborhood in which there are 50 crimes and 100 people is rougher than a neighborhood in which there are 300 crimes and 10,000 people!

I realize that my methodology is not exactly scientific, but it's the best thing I have to go on -- I took each of the SLPD's stats and divided them by the # of people in each 'hood according to the Census stats (which may have changed radically since 2000 in some cases?).

Here are a few of my somewhat surprising results (rates in "per 1,000 residents" form):

Central West End
Robbery: 6.86
Aggravated Assault: 3.04
Burglary: 9.9
Larceny: 82.2
Auto Theft: 18.5

Soulard
Robbery: 12.9
Agg Assault: 6.28
Burglary: 13.2
Larceny: 77.5
Auto Theft: 28.2

Clayton/Tamm ("Dogtown")
Robbery: 1.6
Agg Assault: 0
Burglary: 6.87
Larceny: 38.8
Auto Theft: 10.9

Mark Twain
Robbery: 12.0
Agg Assault: 19.2
Burglary: 32.2
Larceny: 37.2
Auto Theft: 23.4

Tower Grove South
Robbery: 6.78
Agg Assault: 6.92
Burglary: 14.5
Larceny: 40.3
Auto Theft: 15.8

Tower Grove East
Robbery: 9.57
Agg Assault: 7.63
Burglary: 29.7
Larceny: 52.3
Auto Theft: 16.9

These results are interesting to me for a variety of reasons.

1) First off, is Clayton/Tamm really THAT safe? It has 1/5 the robbery of its closest competitor and allegedly NO aggravated assault -- is that even possible?
2) Mark Twain has the highest rate of murder in the city and yet is not so dissimilar from other neighborhoods in terms of other crime. Its rate of larceny and auto theft are in fact both vastly lower than Soulard. Why is this? Less REPORTED crime? Less likelihood that there will actually be something worth stealing in an area with a lot of poverty?
3) Are these stats even accurate or am I somehow missing a very obvious mix-up? It seems hard to believe that, for example, 82.2/1,000 -- 8.2%, or one out of every 12 people -- will be the victim of larceny in Central West End. That's a lot of people for what is generally considered to be a desirable neighborhood.
4) There is a lot of talk about Tower Grove South being a safer neighborhood than Tower Grove East...These stats support that assertion, but by a pretty negligible margin. So there is a 0.3% greater chance I will be robbed or a 0.1% greater chance that my car will be stolen there? Is this really a difference-maker?

All in all I don't know whether this all makes me feel better or worse about my decision.

[TGS]

I think that if you don't know the neighborhoods, then the statistics can be misleading.

Tower Grove South/East, Central West End, and Soulard have a LOT of visitors from outside the neighborhoods. Both areas are chock full of restaurants. If those visitors leave something valuable (say a laptop computer) in their car in plain sight, there is a pretty good chance that it isn't going to be there when they get back to the car. Most residents don't suffer from that because they know better. Also, the number of visitors to the neighborhoods vastly increases the "per 1,000" ratio that you are looking at. On an average weekend night, there are hundreds, if not thousands of people visiting those neighborhoods. That is going to affect the ratios a little bit, compared to an area like Clayton/Tamm where there isn't nearly as much of a visitor presence.

Also, Tower Grove South, Central West End, and Soulard are neighborhoods where if anything goes missing (say, a $20.00 potted plant off of the front porch) a report will be written. Compare that to Mark Twain, where the "no snitching" rules are followed.

When comparing Tower Grove South/East, they are both large neighborhoods with nice areas. Most of the crime in Tower Grove South is found right along Grand (car break-ins, mainly) and in the far southern areas along Gravois. Tower Grove East has some areas that are even more problematic along its eastern edge. The "no snitching" mentality is alive and well in parts of Tower Grove East.

Clayton/Tamm really is that safe. It is a mostly working-class neighborhood with only a few restaurants to bring in people from outside the neighborhood. Most criminals much more likely to focus on the areas with a lot of vistors (so people aren't going to question strangers wandering the streets) and a lot of nice things to steal (which fits Central West End to a T).

[aragx6]

I second what TGS said. "Destination" neighborhoods will always have higher crime than sleepy bedroom neighborhoods, simply because criminals go where the opportunity is. You see this in major cities throughout the U.S. I live in Chicago and while I feel plenty safe in my neighborhood, as well as some of the other popular northside neighborhoods, they have considerably more crime than the family-oriented "bungalow belt" on the far northwest side of the city.

Looking at the crime stats for Dogtown's neighboring inner-ring suburbs such as Maplewood will probably give you a more comparable picture, as realistically Dogtown and other outer-ring neighborhoods such as St. Louis Hills, have more in common with the inner-ring suburbs than with the higher density neighborhoods you compared it to.

[Huckleberry3911948]

crime stats are not near as good as talking to your neighbors. like most government agencies police departments are paid based on performance and turning in the "correct" summary reports.

[steindle]

I think that everything mentioned in this thread is absolutely on-point -- it's just good to hear that from people who are on the ground in St. Louis while I'm just walking around blindly 600 miles away in cyberspace!

I finally found some crime stats from my native Pittsburgh in order to compare and contrast, and it all very much supports the "busy neighborhoods have misleading crime stats" theory. In fact two of the three statistically "least safe" neighborhoods in the city (given the "per 1,000 residents" test) are among the busiest and probably least dangerous in most senses.

What is the area of Shaw like? It seems cheaper than TGS but equally as close to the park, a one-mile walk to most of the shops on Grand, and closer to the Metrolink (which will be good since I will be a WashU student). Is there a business district there, and what is the "feel" of this neighborhood?

(Basically, it would be really nice if I could save a few hundred $$$ every month on rent so that I don't have quite such immense loans when school is over!)

Thanks very much for all of your help, folks.

[aragx6]

If you don't mind the 1 mile + walk to the South Grand area, I think you'll be just fine. There's almost nothing but residences though, so it's not as popular a neighborhood as Tower Grove South, which has the quick and easy access to South Grand. It's a nice, safe, tree-lined neighborhood with easy access to Tower Grove Park and the botanical garden, and imo a great way to save a little bit of money.

[MoNative34]

Originally Posted by steindle

1) First off, is Clayton/Tamm really THAT safe? It has 1/5 the robbery of its closest competitor and allegedly NO aggravated assault -- is that even possible?

Dogtown is safe. In my 26 years living in the metro, I've never heard of Dogtown having major crime issues.

[Fishtacos]

Originally Posted by tgs

i think that if you don't know the neighborhoods, then the statistics can be misleading.

Tower grove south/east, central west end, and soulard have a lot of visitors from outside the neighborhoods. Both areas are chock full of restaurants. If those visitors leave something valuable (say a laptop computer) in their car in plain sight, there is a pretty good chance that it isn't going to be there when they get back to the car. Most residents don't suffer from that because they know better. Also, the number of visitors to the neighborhoods vastly increases the "per 1,000" ratio that you are looking at. On an average weekend night, there are hundreds, if not thousands of people visiting those neighborhoods. That is going to affect the ratios a little bit, compared to an area like clayton/tamm where there isn't nearly as much of a visitor presence.

Also, tower grove south, central west end, and soulard are neighborhoods where if anything goes missing (say, a $20.00 potted plant off of the front porch) a report will be written. Compare that to mark twain, where the "no snitching" rules are followed.

When comparing tower grove south/east, they are both large neighborhoods with nice areas. Most of the crime in tower grove south is found right along grand (car break-ins, mainly) and in the far southern areas along gravois. Tower grove east has some areas that are even more problematic along its eastern edge. The "no snitching" mentality is alive and well in parts of tower grove east.

Clayton/tamm really is that safe. It is a mostly working-class neighborhood with only a few restaurants to bring in people from outside the neighborhood. Most criminals much more likely to focus on the areas with a lot of vistors (so people aren't going to question strangers wandering the streets) and a lot of nice things to steal (which fits central west end to a t).

+1

[zach_33]

I sort of liked the analysis steindle. perhaps you could model in the average number of non-resident visitors per day (or something like that) per TGS. Another factor that would be just as troublesome to isolate would be the presence and involvement of police, and perhaps that is related to the relative prosperity of the neighborhood. You see, an affluent suburban visitor to the Central West End feels pretty comfortable having sushi and cosmopolitans at the Drunken Fish on a Friday evening, because there is a police cruiser around every corner and they will pursue wrongdoers with force. Other neighborhoods, though, police presence is more hit or miss, and in the really tough areas, they are too busy to bother with petty crimes, much less protect well meaning citizens. I dunno, but it is interesting, and TGS made some killer points there.

[EyesInTheSky]

Steindle, thanks for collating these crime statistics; looks like you used a reasonable methodology and did some solid work. And TGS, thanks for adding your interpretation of Steindle's work; this is very helpful information as well. I add my kudos to others on the thread applauding what the two of you put together here.

It seems reasonable to adjust Steindle's crime rates for the neighborhood pedestrian traffic factors described by TGS, which suggests many of these crimes are against un-schooled neighborhood visitors (diners, bar-hopping revelers, etc.), as opposed to actual neighborhood residents.

However, there's one Steindle-derived statistic that for obvious reasons probably cannot be adjusted for neighborhood traffic, and that's the burglary rate. The Dogtown neighborhood (Clayton/Tamm) has a burglary rate of 6.87 per 1,000 residents, which is only a fraction (and sometimes a very small fraction) of the compared burglary rates. (The population-adjusted burglary rates are higher by 44% in CWE, 92% in Soulard, 111% in TG South, 332% in TG East, and 369% in Mark Twain.)

These numbers, especially when combined with the other crime rate differences, really do suggest some stark overall differences. Indeed, it seems reasonable to conclude that Dogtown really is safer than CWE, Soulard, and so forth.