Is Tampa Bay in housing bubble? (Dunedin, Safety Harbor: houses, buying, subsidized)

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by 071402

How interesting. Why is that or is that how it is in general?

I would guess it has something to do with flood insurance. If you have no mortgage, I would assume flood insurance is optional. Not sure though. Just a guess.

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by bentlebee

I'm glad to learn more as any new day is a day I can learn at least one or two new things... I guess today what you wrote is the new thing for me as I haven't seen any deal where the seller is paying for points on behalf of any buyer!

We do see buyers ask for paying towards closing costs but not asking for payment for points.

I think he was talking about sharing a closing costs, just used wrong term for the lack knowledge.

By the way the last house we built, the builder offers some closing assistance and people were able to use it towards buying points. We compared builder lender's rates with what others were offering and it turned out we were better going with our lender without builders closing assistance.

[ColS]

This is a pretty helpful thread. Much advice I'll follow when we start our buying process.

[Leenme]

The only way that lower rates (now subsidized at +/-3.6%) work to your advantage is if you can find a real good deal, and buy less not more of a house than you can afford. When rates go up to normal +/-8%, demand will go down, taking a lot of prospective buyers with it. If your house is still affordable to the largest segment of Florida's population, those retirees on fixed income, you will always have a market for your house. Otherwise, like many, you'll be selling it short and taking a loss. Near Free Money from the FED is a false economic stimulator, it will not last. It may put a lot of people in housing, and allow bubbles to be created and grow, but they may never get out intact.
Watch the "Big Short" and see what they say about low wages and rising real-estate prices.
Tiny Bubbles.

[EngGirl]

Calling someone dumb and stupid is out of line. If people feel like they want to pay such a high prices, it's their choice. I was making fun on one specific community in Wesley Chapel when they announced a car line waiting list for grand opening a year ago. I was saying they will not be successful, but as of now they have like 15 houses with living families in it and around 100 (!) under construction with the majority been under contract. And the price range is $400K+


There are plenty of new apartments in Wesley Chapel, where 3b2bath run for $1600. And most are occupied. Renting a decent house is very tough, not only the rent will be around 2500 per months, but you need to be lucky to find a house. So yes, all these people are stupid and dumb and foolish... You are waiting for either increase of interest rates (so cash is the king in your waiting game) or for the collapse of economy which will not be pretty overall.


With so many people migrating to Florida from all over the place including other countries, the prices are well supported. I just don't see who in the world like builder or developer of average Joe will be lowering the prices. Even locals are buying houses too and paying that much.


Yes, I have no idea how other areas are doing but I am very well familiar with Wesley Chapel market.


I had two friend selling houses this year in Tampa, one in Westchase and one in Palm Harbor. They made really good money there, but its not the point. Both homes got offers within a week and ended up with prices higher that asking. All due to low inventory.


If I am a professional with the job and I want to live in Tampa, I will buy a house I like/can afford and will not compare prices to 2010-2011 level. If someone is waiting for the second bottom, you might be wasting the best years of you life waiting.... and this wait might be for nothing.

[Leenme]

I can remember when Wesley Chapel was called gatorville. ;-) I think the first red light one would see, after leaving Pinellas on US 19 was in Hudson.
Wesley Chapel is new, lots of secure enclaves and a goto area for young families.

Most folks, even those selling homes elsewhere tend not to totally pay cash for a house in Florida now, because money is cheap. If you knew the market you could make more elsewhere because the projection of Florida property increases were lower than other investments.

Of course if your buying to roll it over, that's a business not a home. Young families will stay put for their children, unless other market forces like jobs get in the way. Families staying put create stable communities. New Wesley Chapel became attractive. Not unlike the Villages. There was plenty of available senior/retirement communities and housing in Pinellas, but retirees wanted more, they want the control of an HOA, they wanted away from the rising sea, the rising crime and environments that could not be controlled by contract.
Synchronicity for retirees was built in Sumpter County and the cost was inflated but the buyers got what they paid for. The Added Value in an area has to be calculated to derive a accurate assessment.
Many people today, borrowing cheap money, are leveraging themselves into oblivion and they're paying added value prices in areas that do not have real added value.

[Sunscape]

Originally Posted by ColS

This is a pretty helpful thread. Much advice I'll follow when we start our buying process.

[jabbolito]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

If I am a professional with the job and I want to live in Tampa, I will buy a house I like/can afford and will not compare prices to 2010-2011 level. If someone is waiting for the second bottom, you might be wasting the best years of you life waiting.... and this wait might be for nothing.

This is rubbish. ALL markets are cyclical. Only fools buy in a top-heavy market, whether equities, fixed-income, commodities or houses. Houses aren't investments anyway. The housing market is the Bay area show CLEAR signs of being overpriced. Forget the hype. Forget the herd mentality in thinking the market will eventually "validate" an already stupid or ill-conceived decision. This market is overdue for a correction, but the fools in the last boom/bust cycle are the identical fools that are fanning the irrational exuberance of today's market. Some people never learn...about anything...never mind about the housing market, they can't learn the simplest of things about even symptoms of sickness in their own lives or families, they damn sure can't theorize, understand, or predict market patterns, tops, bottoms, troughs, pull-backs, break-outs, resistance, oversold, or overbought conditions. For those of us who fully comprehend business and economic cycles, we know better than to listen to uniformed hyperbole, cheerleading, utter nonsense, chat and noise (about any market, from any wannabe market maven). Tampa Bay's housing market.....Single Family, Multi-Family/Condo, Commercial/Warehouse, Cluster/Paired Villa, and even the "apartment rental market", is nearing the nose-bleed levels that many of us have seen before. Don't be foolish.

[FLHfan]

Originally Posted by jabbolito

This is rubbish. ALL markets are cyclical. Only fools buy in a top-heavy market, whether equities, fixed-income, commodities or houses. Houses aren't investments anyway. The housing market is the Bay area show CLEAR signs of being overpriced. Forget the hype. Forget the herd mentality in thinking the market will eventually "validate" an already stupid or ill-conceived decision. This market is overdue for a correction, but the fools in the last boom/bust cycle are the identical fools that are fanning the irrational exuberance of today's market. Some people never learn...about anything...never mind about the housing market, they can't learn the simplest of things about even symptoms of sickness in their own lives or families, they damn sure can't theorize, understand, or predict market patterns, tops, bottoms, troughs, pull-backs, break-outs, resistance, oversold, or overbought conditions. For those of us who fully comprehend business and economic cycles, we know better than to listen to uniformed hyperbole, cheerleading, utter nonsense, chat and noise (about any market, from any wannabe market maven). Tampa Bay's housing market.....Single Family, Multi-Family/Condo, Commercial/Warehouse, Cluster/Paired Villa, and even the "apartment rental market", is nearing the nose-bleed levels that many of us have seen before. Don't be foolish.

I'm glad you announced it before you posted and for the first time you are absolutely correct.
Everything you posted IS rubbish.

Having several member names and dozens of banned names leaves you with zero credibility.

People that want to move to Florida will find the housing market very affordable.
If they didn't, they wouldn't keep buying.

You can use one of your user names to pat yourself on the back or tell yourself how correct you are but nobody is buying it. Probably the only thing home shoppers aren't buying.

[Tim Tim Tim]

Originally Posted by FLHfan

I'm glad you announced it before you posted and for the first time you are absolutely correct.
Everything you posted IS rubbish.

Having several member names and dozens of banned names leaves you with zero credibility.

People that want to move to Florida will find the housing market very affordable.
If they didn't, they wouldn't keep buying.

You can use one of your user names to pat yourself on the back or tell yourself how correct you are but nobody is buying it. Probably the only thing home shoppers aren't buying.

Agreed