Is Tampa Bay in housing bubble? (St. Petersburg, Sarasota: flat fee, sale, apartment)

[WickedBad]

Sellers aren't doing buyers a favour. Too much product to chose from.


Having a take it or leave it approach, without emotion is far more effective for me, and has been effective.


I'm not looking for a friendly anything. I'm looking for a contract at my terms, fair for them or not. I don't care if
the seller thinks my offer is "unfair". Too bad. I certainly don't care what a real estate hawker thinks about my offer.

[Tampaite]

Originally Posted by dctotpa

My husband and I moved from DC in December and we've been searching for a house. We've been watching the market and prices for about a year and it makes us so nervous to purchase a home here. We have a combined income of $190k and 20% down for a home. We want a home under $420k, but watching prices jump over 30% over the past year gives us anxiety. We lived in Tampa 8 years ago...yes I know times have changed since then....but it's kind of crazy to see what people are listing some homes for. The quality of most homes just isn't there. And sellers are unwilling to budge even a little on price and even overpriced homes (based on looking at sales from past 3 mos) go so quickly. We also can't seem to get any decent help from a realtor. Anyone else feel this way? I wish there was an end in sight.

Same here - we have been looking to buy a new home for the past 2-3 years in the New Tampa/Wesley Chapel area and prices have gone thro' the roof.

Also, checked out new homes being built by CalAtlantic, Taylor Morrison, MI Homes and GL Homes and homes that were to our liking were priced about $500k to $600k and more...

I was telling my spouse that with $500K in my kitty - I might just retire!!!

We plan to wait out another year or two.

[EngGirl]

I honestly don't see prices to go down unless
1) economy collapses and a lot of people will be without job
2) interest rates will increase twice and up

I am not sure why people call today's market a second bubble. What prices are you comparing today's prices to? To the lowest these were in 2010-2011? I am pretty sure these prices were too low and not a norm. You cannot compare any market to that down time.

If you want to compare prices during last bubble vs today's, do it smart. Don't look at houses prices, factor interest rates too. Most people who bought during last bubble, they got different interest which makes their payments higher compare to now. And most people got adjustable rates back than, or even interest only rates.

I would say prices stay pretty much the same for the last couple of years. I didn't noticed any increase in home prices except new construction. But new construction always were more expensive, it's like new car.

Also, if people talk about their "forever" homes, they are investing for at least another 15 years. Nobody knows what will be happening in 15 years. Today's market is not great for investors. but for regular buyers it's been like that for last 3 years. As you can see people are paying listed prices, so no need to drop prices really.

And some areas are hotter for sure. Wesley Chapel is growing, with recently added outlet mall, soon to be open ice forum, the expansion for the hospital, community college campus right there, there are no needs to leave Wesley Chapel unless you walk in Tampa. Sure enough you see overall higher prices in that area.

My rule of thumb is the prices are reasonable with the interest rate around 3.5% if for the house size under 2500 sq. ft. has the price around $115-125 per sq. ft., for house size between 2500 and 3500 sq. ft. the price is $100-115, and for houses bigger that 3500 sq. ft. the price is $90-105 per sq. ft.
Basically the smaller houses are more expensive (per sq. ft.), but are within more affordable price range which is harder to find. And much bigger houses are more expensive obviously and are hard to sell.

Is it a good time to buy houses now? Nobody knows, but prices we saw in 2010-11 might never be there again. As long as you can afford the house it's really a time to buy. New construction homes are more expensive, but you have warranty so it's pretty much no worries.

[Danoz]

We recently bought in South Tampa on a combined income slightly less than what you have. We originally we looking at pre-owned, but decided to look at new builds, as you tended to get more for your money. In the end we went with a small custom builder (Sterling Bay Homes) and built a house just south of Gandy off MacDill.

We ended up choosing a smaller custom builder as they rely on their reputation more than some of the larger scale builders. As a result after looking at some of the houses they were building (only build one or two at a time), the over all quality was far superior than the others we were seeing in the area for that price point (sub 500k).

It ended up being a very personal experience with next to no real issues all the way through. When something did arise, they would be in touch and would be open and honest and discuss options with you.

Tampa is on the up. You only have to look at the rejuvenation going on in South Tampa and down town. The amount of restaurants being backed by big money says a lot about the medium term future of Tampa. South Tampa is quickly being torn down and rebuilt, all speaking to a city on the rebound. Unfortunately this also means that house prices are on the rise.

There have also been several news articles recently indicating that Tampa is one of the fasted growing City's in the US. My employer is in the process relocating potentially 1000+ jobs from New York and other higher cost centers to Tampa. Many of the banks are building operations centers here, Amazon has invested a large amount of money just south etc... It all points to a City on the grow.

So is this a bubble. I personally dont think so. However, it is possible prices are inflated with people trying to exploit the opportunity by asking higher prices. It may take a little time for the market to re-adjust itself. But again, a lot of properties do not stay on the market long, so it shows people are willing to pay here. Banks are lending again, but it still isnt easy just yet to get the loan. House evaluations are also still tough (experienced this in our purchase).

My advice is to assess the different options, explore some of the smaller builders as well as the pre-owned. Be aggressive, but smart in your offers and see what happens. People can only say no.

Good luck.

[kbrkr]

It's supply and demand at is most basic. Tampa Bay area has 50,000 new residents per year; The fastest growing city in the country. Inventory is low, interest rates are low, job growth is good, economy is doing better and all of this translates to higher prices. Will it continue? As long as the 50k per year continues, interest rates remain low, economy remains stronger, inventory remains low, yes this will continue.

Maybe you should look elsewhere?

[Roscoe Conkling]

I love myself a housing bubble.
Buy cheap,sell dear,drink the profit.
Rinse and repeat.

[Tim Tim Tim]

I don't see us as being in a bubble. Sure, prices are increasing but no where near the rate that they did last time. Look around the country, were still not too badly priced compared to most places.

Keep in mind, half of the reason the last bubble burst was due to all of the terrible loans for people that couldn't afford their houses. Those loans are few and far between now with most people opting for 15/30 year fixed loans. To get approved here, you need to actually have the income/credit to make it happen.

My wife is in real estate, Im not one of those that are so blinded by what other "real estate pro's" are saying. they will always tell you "now is the time to buy!!!" but that is usually a load of crap and they are jaded from reality. Every one of the people she has dealt with this year have a 30 year fixed loan. Some USDA and FHA which are the most forgiving your going to get right now.

My advice - get into a house your planning to stay at for a while. Get what will make you happy, in an area that will make you happy. If this is your first house, research first time home buyers programs. I know Hillsborough has a 15K downpayment assistance program and you just have to sit through a class for it. Even if we are in a bubble, its not to the point where its about to burst, if you bought today and a bubble burst, prices wouldn't fall nearly like they did last time (they just aren't that inflated right now)

[jabbolito]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

I honestly don't see prices to go down unless
1) economy collapses and a lot of people will be without job
2) interest rates will increase twice and up

I am not sure why people call today's market a second bubble. Because people are blind and don't understand overbought conditions in any market, whether commodity, bond, or equity markets What prices are you comparing today's prices to? To the lowest these were in 2010-2011? I am pretty sure these prices were too low and not a norm. You cannot compare any market to that down time.

If you want to compare prices during last bubble vs today's, do it smart. Don't look at houses prices, factor interest rates too. Wrong, these factors now are unrelated due to the influx of cash-only buyers. Most people who bought during last bubble, they got different interest which makes their payments higher compare to now. And most people got adjustable rates back than, or even interest only rates.

I would say prices stay pretty much the same for the last couple of years.This is patently false in many price ranges! houses that were offered at 250k in 2014 are now offered at the 280-300k range ! I didn't noticed any increase in home prices except new construction. But new construction always were more expensive, it's like new car.

Also, if people talk about their "forever" homes, they are investing for at least another 15 years. Nobody knows what will be happening in 15 years. Today's market is not great for investors. but for regular buyers it's been like that for last 3 years. As you can see people are paying listed prices, so no need to drop prices really.

And some areas are hotter for sure. Wesley Chapel is growing, with recently added outlet mall, soon to be open ice forum, the expansion for the hospital, community college campus right there, there are no needs to leave Wesley Chapel unless you walk in Tampa. Sure enough you see overall higher prices in that area.

My rule of thumb is the prices are reasonable with the interest rate around 3.5% if for the house size under 2500 sq. ft. has the price around $115-125 per sq. ft., for house size between 2500 and 3500 sq. ft. the price is $100-115, and for houses bigger that 3500 sq. ft. the price is $90-105 per sq. ft.
Basically the smaller houses are more expensive (per sq. ft.), but are within more affordable price range which is harder to find. And much bigger houses are more expensive obviously and are hard to sell. You're completely out of touch in most SWFL markets, the new normal in lots of Tampa Bay, and south down to Venice, Sarasota, and Ft. Myers are priced at 150-170 per sq foot. This is a dramatic increase.

Is it a good time to buy houses now? Nobody knows, I know for SURE that this market is fully valued, and is a seller's market, and is very much overpriced. but prices we saw in 2010-11 might never be there again. As long as you can afford the house it's really a time to buy. This must be one of the most simplistic views of buying a house. Just because a buyer can "afford" the expense (houses are no longer "investments"), it doesn't mean it's a wise and smart financial decision. There is no status in "paying too much". In fact it's pretty stupid.New construction homes are more expensive, but you have warranty so it's pretty much no worries.

That's my opinion

[Tim Tim Tim]

Originally Posted by jabbolito

***************************That's my opinion

A realtors point of view there lol...

Prices ARE going up, without a doubt. It is a sellers market, especially in the sub 200K price range. Once you get higher in price I feel that its more of a level playing field.

[jabbolito]

Nope, I'm not a realtor, but a finance executive, and Wall Streeter.