Official Future Phoenix Thread (map, Pittsburgh, major, development)

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by Daniel NC

Exactly the problem. The runways are situated so you can only come in 2 ways. You eaither have to circle or take a sharp turn. The valley is almost like a bowl, with peaks rising up within, you must avoid these to land. You put it perfectly, which is why many international flights fly into SFO.

Well, it's also where it's located on the map. LA and San Francisco are better markets for flights to Asia and Australia, but Phoenix isn't. On top of that, they're sort of "on the way" from most American cities. Airlines have routing violations and the rule of thumb is you have to go in that general direction; i.e. Phoenix to Europe you have to go north, east or northeast. There are some exceptions, but usually they go by that. I suppose if US Airways wanted to expand to Australia or New Zealand Phoenix would be acceptable as a connection, but it would not service most people on the Pacific coast. Once someone said Phoenix should become a gateway to South America, but I don't think that would work. US Airways uses Charlotte as a hub to Brazil, which makes more sense because South America juts out farther east and from the US, most people would need to generally go east, south or southeast, which makes Charlotte ideal. If Phoenix were to service South America it would really only be able to service the population from Albuquerque/El Paso and everything directly north and west of that. It's kind of confusing, but a big problem is where Phoenix sits on the map. It really would need to get more global to attract more international flights, because I think in general the people here aren't very worldly, there's a lack of major corporations, lack of international companies, lack of international tourists/tourist appeal and with so many domestic flights/codeshare agreements it is easy to fly through another city and connect to go abroad.

[miamiman]

Phoenix's growth has slowed tremendously and will likely NEVER explode the way it did a couple of years ago.

The State of Arizona is doing absolutely nothing to encourage economic development throughout the state. They're too busy passing ridiculous laws that put us on CNN all the time.

Buckeye will not grow to 250,000 or 2,000,000, whatever the latest ridiculous figure is. Maricopa and Queen Creek will continue to be ghost towns that barely grow. Inner suburbs like Scottsdale, Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, and Mesa will continue to fare well, while outer suburbs like Surprise, Buckeye, Tolleson, Litchfield Park, Goodyear Avondale, Gilbert, Apache Junction, Maricopa, Queen Creek will continue to fail. Phoenix, Cave Creek, and Carefree will maintain a slowly growing population.

Transit will falter due to the lack of funds, while freeway projects will get built at a MUCH slower pace than they were built in the past. Traffic will increase, the urban heat island will increase, many of the outer ring taco-bell styled communities will decay, but people will continue to move here.

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by miamiman

Phoenix's growth has slowed tremendously and will likely NEVER explode the way it did a couple of years ago.

I agree with this... but I'm starting to think it's a matter of time until Arizona experiences negative growth.

Originally Posted by miamiman

The State of Arizona is doing absolutely nothing to encourage economic development throughout the state. They're too busy passing ridiculous laws that put us on CNN all the time.

Exactly! I've been telling people the same thing and they think I'm crazy. Even in better economic times it's extremely difficult to find a quality job here. I'm sure there are people in Phoenix who work at high-quality jobs, but they're the lucky ones. In my search I come across a ton of call center positions. How lucrative.

Originally Posted by miamiman

Buckeye will not grow to 250,000 or 2,000,000, whatever the latest ridiculous figure is. Maricopa and Queen Creek will continue to be ghost towns that barely grow. Inner suburbs like Scottsdale, Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, and Mesa will continue to fare well, while outer suburbs like Surprise, Buckeye, Tolleson, Litchfield Park, Goodyear Avondale, Gilbert, Apache Junction, Maricopa, Queen Creek will continue to fail. Phoenix, Cave Creek, and Carefree will maintain a slowly growing population.

I think that Buckeye projection is severely outdated. I also think that because the new trend is to build more anthropocentric cities, including high-density housing and improved public transit, a place like Phoenix is royally screwed. I wish I could find the article, but I remember Arizona leaders saying the game plan is to wait out the recession, wait for people to move back in, then resume construction and sprawl. That, to me, is the final nail in the coffin for Phoenix.

Originally Posted by miamiman

Transit will falter due to the lack of funds, while freeway projects will get built at a MUCH slower pace than they were built in the past. Traffic will increase, the urban heat island will increase, many of the outer ring taco-bell styled communities will decay, but people will continue to move here.

I can't agree with this more. I heard they've been discussing commuter rail for years, linking suburban cities to central Phoenix with limited stops using existing rail lines... but they're really no closer to actually implementing this. I also read that light rail expansion has been shelved due to lack of funds. I wouldn't be surprised if light rail opponents use this time to NIMBY it right out of their neighborhoods. And about that heat island... I live in central Phoenix and have for a couple years, and the last good monsoon season was 2008. I think it rained once in 2009 this time of year, and this year, at least in my part of town, I've only had spritzes, literally.

I think Phoenix has a grim future in general.

[Daniel NC]

Originally Posted by miamiman

Phoenix's growth has slowed tremendously and will likely NEVER explode the way it did a couple of years ago.

The State of Arizona is doing absolutely nothing to encourage economic development throughout the state. They're too busy passing ridiculous laws that put us on CNN all the time.

Buckeye will not grow to 250,000 or 2,000,000, whatever the latest ridiculous figure is. Maricopa and Queen Creek will continue to be ghost towns that barely grow. Inner suburbs like Scottsdale, Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, and Mesa will continue to fare well, while outer suburbs like Surprise, Buckeye, Tolleson, Litchfield Park, Goodyear Avondale, Gilbert, Apache Junction, Maricopa, Queen Creek will continue to fail. Phoenix, Cave Creek, and Carefree will maintain a slowly growing population.

Transit will falter due to the lack of funds, while freeway projects will get built at a MUCH slower pace than they were built in the past. Traffic will increase, the urban heat island will increase, many of the outer ring taco-bell styled communities will decay, but people will continue to move here.

Ok, so check out this link www.phoenix.gov/urbanformproject (http://www.phoenix.gov/urbanformproject - broken link) and then tell me what you think. It is phoenix's plans for downtown. They expect 86,000 jobs, 40,000 new residents, and business growth. Phoenixs economy is not as bad as many people think. During the recession, the skyline has gone from unbalanced and seperated by unused space to full, compact, and balanced. The cityscape towers are still planned, and one is finished. Tempe is planning southbank, a huge retail residential mixed use are. Checkout www.southbanktempe.com for more info. Buckeye is growing, very fast. Buckeye is planning at least 9 more communities, expanding verrado, and already has a master plan for when it does exceed 100,000 people, by 2050. Phoenixs population had a minor boom this past year, mostly with the condos being built in downtown phoenix. Here are some sites to check out:

www.cityscape.com
www.skyharbor.com

Also, the seventh fastest growing city in the world is peoria, one of Phoenix's outer suburbs.

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by Daniel NC

Ok, so check out this link www.phoenix.gov/urbanformproject (http://www.phoenix.gov/urbanformproject - broken link) and then tell me what you think. It is phoenix's plans for downtown. They expect 86,000 jobs, 40,000 new residents, and business growth. Phoenixs economy is not as bad as many people think. During the recession, the skyline has gone from unbalanced and seperated by unused space to full, compact, and balanced. The cityscape towers are still planned, and one is finished. Tempe is planning southbank, a huge retail residential mixed use are. Checkout www.southbanktempe.com for more info. Buckeye is growing, very fast. Buckeye is planning at least 9 more communities, expanding verrado, and already has a master plan for when it does exceed 100,000 people, by 2050. Phoenixs population had a minor boom this past year, mostly with the condos being built in downtown phoenix. Here are some sites to check out:

www.cityscape.com
www.skyharbor.com

Also, the seventh fastest growing city in the world is peoria, one of Phoenix's outer suburbs.

I think it's ambitious, but not likely to happen. No matter what the city plans, there are extreme roadblocks with which Phoenix has to contend. I think the Summit and 44 Monroe's timing was awful, but that could hinder near-future residential development as no one is moving in to that building. I think it will be hard to get private investors/development companies to splurge on a mid-/high-rise when existing residential choices are largely vacant. I suppose there could be state housing, but Phoenix can't afford that right now and that concept would NOT go over well here. People complain about taxes being spent on anything in this city and that idea would be likened to the USSR's housing program.

Phoenix is also notorious for not getting proposed buildings actually built. It's my understanding the developers of Cityscape are under no obligation to build all four towers. What are these buildings you see the city is planning? I looked at emporis.com and only saw four proposals.

Anyway, I'm moving out of Phoenix as soon as possible and a big reason is another hurdle the city has to overcome: quality jobs. Even when the economy was doing well I couldn't find any quality work, just customer service jobs. I really think Phoenix is going to have problems with retention if it doesn't improve its economy.

[Daniel NC]

I couldnt have put it better. Although CityScapes towers were approved by the phoenix city council, and a few hotels have been proposed. On sites like emporis and skyscraperpage, they only show proposals approved by the city council, not every proposal.

[phxgreenfire]

I posted a study on a different thread, which didn't go over well with one guy. I could post it here if you want. Anyway, it just looks at common elements of cities and not the local culture, geography, climate, etc. It shows where Phoenix is on the list compared to a lot of other cities, but doesn't really discuss any problems specific to a city. I think the rankings are pretty self-explanatory. I thought it could really help lead to discussion.

[Daniel NC]

Go Ahead-post it. Im sure it will give us some great info to expand upon

[phxgreenfire]

Ah, okay. Here's the link:
GaWC - The World According to GaWC 2008

It categorizes cities based on what they can offer, including:

Economics: corporate headquarters, international institutions, economic influence, financial output, personal wealth
Politics: political influence, diverse population, expats
Culture: worldwide familiarity, famed cultural institutions/events, media influence, education, tourism, historic significance
Infrastructure: transportation, air travel, health facilities, well-known skyline, availability of services

I think if you compare any of those Alpha cities with Phoenix, it's pretty easy why they are where they are, and Phoenix is where it is. It's been my experience that Phoenix/Arizona leaders aren't really interested in input and suggestions on how to enrich this city... which will really hurt in the future.

[wburg]

Maybe I'm just not searching the right parts of the site, but where do they define their terms (what, in a general sense, do alpha, beta, gamma, high sufficiency and sufficiency mean?)

Originally Posted by DanielNC

Also, the seventh fastest growing city in the world is peoria, one of Phoenix's outer suburbs.

If one of your suburbs is a fast-growing city, it means that city is drinking your milkshake. We have one of those parasites here in Sacramento--it's called Roseville. It is considered a statewide success in rapid growth and expansion, relatively wealthy and safe. But their county is leaking jobs like a sieve, because just about nobody who lives in Roseville works in Roseville, except maybe folks who work at the mall or in the service sector. The people bumping up the city's population numbers and property tax receipts all commute to Sacramento. And every suburban development takes away from potential urban development in the city whose milkshake is being consumed by an adjacent parasite suburb.