Sequestration and Prince George's County (2014, foreclosures, houses)

[UrbanScholar]

Given the high percentage of federal employees in PG county, how do you think this will impact PG in 2013? In the articles below it mentions that the cuts are in line with the percent of revenues contributed to this area (currently 20%) by the Feds). That said do you think the impact to PG will be higher? Will the county go into a deep recession or worse depression as a result of the cuts? How will this impact the plans that the county has for expanding its federal market and commercial base?

Washington region could see 'devastating recession' with sequestration - Washington Business Journal

Part 1: 'It's Complicated': The Federal Government And The D.C. Region | WAMU 88.5 - American University Radio

Part 2: D.C. Area Braces For Impacts Of Federal Budget Cuts | WAMU 88.5 - American University Radio

[adelphi_sky]

Originally Posted by UrbanScholar

Given the high percentage of federal employees in PG county, how do you think this will impact PG in 2013? In the articles below it mentions that the cuts are in line with the percent of revenues contributed to this area (currently 20%) by the Feds). That said do you think the impact to PG will be higher? Will the county go into a deep recession or worse depression as a result of the cuts? How will this impact the plans that the county has for expanding its federal market and commercial base?

Washington region could see 'devastating recession' with sequestration - Washington Business Journal

Part 1: 'It's Complicated': The Federal Government And The D.C. Region | WAMU 88.5 - American University Radio

Part 2: D.C. Area Braces For Impacts Of Federal Budget Cuts | WAMU 88.5 - American University Radio

I think the impact to PG will be catastrophic. This is for the following reasons:

1. PGC's affluence has been propped up mainly by the government. Not only do you have the government workers involved, but those who are employed by the service industries from restaurants, to retail, to small minority contractors.

2. There's not much for PGC residents to fall back on. There is not a large number of scientists or medical professionals here that can weather a government reduction unlike Montgomery county who has a huge biotech industry to help support the blow.

3. Mobility. 58% of PGC residents are underwater. So, they can't move to where the jobs are. And what jobs are left, they probably wouldn't qualify for. You'd see another wave of foreclosures in 2014.


The DC area was shielded pretty much by the 2008 recession. But if this sequestration comes to pass, we'll fee what the rest of the country felt. Probably worse. 31% of the D.C area homes are underwater. This would push everyone off the cliff.

Virginia will get hit hard too because they are mostly DOD contractors. Though they do have the IT corridor to help support them.

If you're an IT contractor, or are in any way affiliated with IT, you may not be affected as much. The government just can turn off systems. Those systems still need to be supported and migrated to other platforms, etc. If you're in cybersecurity, you're about as safe as things can get. The government systems are unbelievably vulnerable to cyber attacks. The hits keep growing. They're not about to reduce their cyber security piece anytime soon. There are other areas of the government that they just can't cut overnight as well.

[UrbanScholar]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

I think the impact to PG will be catastrophic. This is for the following reasons:

1. PGC's affluence has been propped up mainly by the government. Not only do you have the government workers involved, but those who are employed by the service industries from restaurants, to retail, to small minority contractors.

2. There's not much for PGC residents to fall back on. There is not a large number of scientists or medical professionals here that can weather a government reduction unlike Montgomery county who has a huge biotech industry to help support the blow.

3. Mobility. 58% of PGC residents are underwater. So, they can't move to where the jobs are. And what jobs are left, they probably wouldn't qualify for. You'd see another wave of foreclosures in 2014.


The DC area was shielded pretty much by the 2008 recession. But if this sequestration comes to pass, we'll fee what the rest of the country felt. Probably worse. 31% of the D.C area homes are underwater. This would push everyone off the cliff.

Virginia will get hit hard too because they are mostly DOD contractors. Though they do have the IT corridor to help support them.

If you're an IT contractor, or are in any way affiliated with IT, you may not be affected as much. The government just can turn off systems. Those systems still need to be supported and migrated to other platforms, etc. If you're in cybersecurity, you're about as safe as things can get. The government systems are unbelievably vulnerable to cyber attacks. The hits keep growing. They're not about to reduce their cyber security piece anytime soon. There are other areas of the government that they just can't cut overnight as well.

I agree that we are going to take a hit. From my understanding Feds eligible for retirement (approx 50%) will be targeted first as well as contractors. In addition to IT professional in cyber security professionals with clearances should be okay also.

[justtitans]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

I think the impact to PG will be catastrophic. This is for the following reasons:

1. PGC's affluence has been propped up mainly by the government. Not only do you have the government workers involved, but those who are employed by the service industries from restaurants, to retail, to small minority contractors.

2. There's not much for PGC residents to fall back on. There is not a large number of scientists or medical professionals here that can weather a government reduction unlike Montgomery county who has a huge biotech industry to help support the blow.

3. Mobility. 58% of PGC residents are underwater. So, they can't move to where the jobs are. And what jobs are left, they probably wouldn't qualify for. You'd see another wave of foreclosures in 2014.


The DC area was shielded pretty much by the 2008 recession. But if this sequestration comes to pass, we'll fee what the rest of the country felt. Probably worse. 31% of the D.C area homes are underwater. This would push everyone off the cliff.

Virginia will get hit hard too because they are mostly DOD contractors. Though they do have the IT corridor to help support them.

If you're an IT contractor, or are in any way affiliated with IT, you may not be affected as much. The government just can turn off systems. Those systems still need to be supported and migrated to other platforms, etc. If you're in cybersecurity, you're about as safe as things can get. The government systems are unbelievably vulnerable to cyber attacks. The hits keep growing. They're not about to reduce their cyber security piece anytime soon. There are other areas of the government that they just can't cut overnight as well.

I was with you until you said this. Do you know how many contractors the government hires? They are going to be the first ones to go, especially in the DOD. It is more likely the government is going to rely on their resources from within.

Defense cuts could hit civilian workforce - FederalNewsRadio.com

These states also are home to major defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and their construction facilities. Last week, Robert J. Stevens, chairman and chief executive officer of Lockheed Martin, told Congress that the across-the-board reductions could result in layoffs of 10,000 employees from his company of 120,000 workers.

Even though this isn't just IT, a majority of the contracting for the government is IT related. It will definitely be felt.

[adelphi_sky]

Originally Posted by pgtitans

I was with you until you said this. Do you know how many contractors the government hires? They are going to be the first ones to go, especially in the DOD. It is more likely the government is going to rely on their resources from within.

Defense cuts could hit civilian workforce - FederalNewsRadio.com



Even though this isn't just IT, a majority of the contracting for the government is IT related. It will definitely be felt.

True, but there are limits. The government outsourced IT so much that their own staff more than likely won't be able to handle all of the maintenance and current projects. Unless they just end all of the contracts and pays them out? Being in IT all of my life, it is always hard to wind own old systems and transfer knowledge. IF there is a significant reduction in IT, it will be a very slow drain.

[vicnice]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

True, but there are limits. The government outsourced IT so much that their own staff more than likely won't be able to handle all of the maintenance and current projects. Unless they just end all of the contracts and pays them out? Being in IT all of my life, it is always hard to wind own old systems and transfer knowledge. IF there is a significant reduction in IT, it will be a very slow drain.

Concur here. Being a contractor in Cyber is probably a safer bet than being a govvie.

A *real* safe bet is to get some marketable skills that can be used in government or private sector, but as was mentioned I don't think that this is prevelant in PG at all.

[Joykins]

OMG, I'm just hoping they don't do this stupid sequestration thing and last-minute legislate their way out of it. It'll probably tank the national economy if they go forward with it.

[wisedisguise]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

I think the impact to PG will be catastrophic.

2. There's not much for PGC residents to fall back on. There is not a large number of scientists or medical professionals here that can weather a government reduction unlike Montgomery county who has a huge biotech industry to help support the blow.

3. Mobility. 58% of PGC residents are underwater. So, they can't move to where the jobs are. And what jobs are left, they probably wouldn't qualify for. You'd see another wave of foreclosures in 2014.


The DC area was shielded pretty much by the 2008 recession. But if this sequestration comes to pass, we'll fee what the rest of the country felt. Probably worse. 31% of the D.C area homes are underwater. This would push everyone off the cliff.

#2 was dead on. PGC has owed most it's income to federal employment with little else taking up the dredges other than the small businesses that support those who have federal jobs. Private industry does not exist here.

As far as being underwater, I have had several discussions with friends about this point over the past couple of years. Most people claim the present value of the houses they bought 7 years ago don't represent the purchase price which puts them underwater. I contend the economy is in a state of inflation which puts a damper on most of our finances. My house has been paid for but I would never get a price I could bear to take for it so I am entrenched until push comes to shove.

I have raised the fact of the shield or bubble the DMV area has enjoyed when compared to other parts of the country. Lots of people ignore the fact as it hasn't hit home yet and others deny it hit the rest of the nation. You can bet it will hit home sooner or later. Hopefully a lot later.