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I was thinking the same of you. Do you actually live in the District?
I've spent most of my waking hours in DC for over 25 years and lived in DC for over 10 years. I've seen enough positive and negative changes during that time to know that the city's trajectory does not follow a simple path.
I've spent most of my waking hours in DC for over 25 years and lived in DC for over 10 years. I've seen enough positive and negative changes during that time to know that the city's trajectory does not follow a simple path.
Your perceptions seem very dated. Your perspective seems to be that of a suburbanite.
and I agree it will take time but the demographics are changing rapidly in that ALOT more families are staying longer. For example, my wife and I moved to the U street area about 2 years ago. We had the first child ever in our condo development about a year ago. Since then, four other couples have had a kid in the condo building. Admittedly, one moved to the burbs but the others are staying for now.
The school system will be very different in 5 years and certainly in 10 years. It won't be perfect but alot more people will be considering the public schools rather than 30k per year for a private school.
We are certainly planning on staying and will be looking for a bigger place in the next few years.
I'm curious to see how much longer you and the other four couples will be living in the city.
Finding a bigger place in the city will not be easy. The ideal location would be west of Rock Creek Park where the good public schools are. But then you'll need major bread to afford a house over there. We're talking $900,000 minimum. That pretty much rules those neighborhoods out for middle class families.
The other option is to look in cheaper neighborhoods like Brookland, Takoma, Shepherd Park, or Hillcrest. The problem there is that no one stays long enough for the surrounding schools to change. I know I'm not sending my kid to I.B. Ghetto Elementary. It sounds great and all to say, "Once progressive parents like us move to the neighborhood, the sun will come out, and our kids will all join hands in a game of ring around the rosey and all fall down." But there are few people who are soooooo committed to urban living that they'll put their kids in I.B. Ghetto in hopes that similar SES, Obama-voting, Trader Joe-shopping, non-spanking parents will move to the neighborhood in numbers so overwhelming as to completely subdue the existing ghetto element. It's just not going to happen.
Again, my policy recommendation is to open more special admissions schools or increase the size of the existing ones.
This article is about proposed changes to the admissions policies of Philly high schools. The comments are interesting. They make it pretty clear that the magnets are the life support of the city's middle class.
Not to quibble, but the example of your own personal situation only illustrates the key uncertainty, which is whether middle and upper-middle class parents in DC with children under the age of, say, 5 will really stay the course.
Historically, there have been quite a few people in your situation, and they haven't stayed, which is what's reflected in the latest Census data highlighting the decline in school-age children in DC. The school system won't be very different in 5 years because there are 10 new condos on U Street or Mass. Ave. full of singles, couples or even parents of infants who would like to have a nice school in the neighborhood four years later. It will only be different if large numbers of people in your situation don't churn.
Exactly. Anyone who thinks the 200 or so new units in Jenkins Row is going to change the composition and quality of the neighborhood schools is kidding themselves. Five years from now those schools will be just as crappy as they are today.
Your perceptions seem very dated. Your perspective seems to be that of a suburbanite.
Right, and we all live in McMansions, shop at big box stores, eat at chain restaurants and make sure we never, ever come into the big, bad city unless we absolutely have to. I mean, really, that's your best response?
The latest data is what reveals the continued decline in the number of school-age children in the District. If you have a problem with that, attack the Census Bureau, not me, and make a stronger case - based on something more than mere anecdote - that the data will be different next time around. Maybe the Census folks didn't stop by the P Street Whole Foods and missed hundreds of young couples that day who were shopping for a good brand of olive oil with their six-year-olds.
Conversely, if you don't have a problem with the data, you should acknowledge that you really couldn't care less whether there are more families with school-age children in DC, so long as it's a more convenient place for others to live and play.
Right, and we all live in McMansions, shop at big box stores, eat at chain restaurants and make sure we never, ever come into the big, bad city unless we absolutely have to. I mean, really, that's your best response?
People who leave the District and move to the suburbs have a different mindset than people who leave the suburbs to live in the District. The first group generally has a hard time imagining living in the parts of the District that are growing rapidly. Twenty years ago the second group started moving east of Rock Creek Park. They continue to move to areas east of Rock Creek Park. East of the park is quite a bit different than west of the park. People who can't imagine living east of the park, don't understand the people who do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77
The latest data is what reveals the continued decline in the number of school-age children in the District. If you have a problem with that, attack the Census Bureau, not me, and make a stronger case - based on something more than mere anecdote - that the data will be different next time around. Maybe the Census folks didn't stop by the P Street Whole Foods and missed hundreds of young couples that day who were shopping for a good brand of olive oil with their six-year-olds.
The data that I've seen are too aggregated to allow one to draw any meaningful inference. There's a large enough shift in the demographics of the city that one really need to wait to see the data. I haven't seen a report of the change in population of white school aged children. Anecdotally, I see a lot more kid from affluent families living east of the park. Anecdotally we also hear of black families moving to PG county. Their kids would have left the DC system.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77
Conversely, if you don't have a problem with the data, you should acknowledge that you really couldn't care less whether there are more families with school-age children in DC, so long as it's a more convenient place for others to live and play.
Snarky today aren't we. DC is a wonderful place to live -- diverse, vibrant, well educated, and increasingly a magnet for professional families. With all the problems facing the suburbs, I don't see that trend reversing.
There actually have not been a lot of people in prior generations in our situation. I have lived and/or worked within 6 blocks of the White House for 16 years (living here for the first 3 and the last 9 of those), and I have walked the downtown areas a lot during that time. When I moved here, it was very difficult to walk around these areas, and you couldn't really manage without a car. I always wanted more urban living, so I moved to Old Town, Alexandria, which was much more walkable and required much less driving than downtown. But, as 14th street changed and as Penn Quarter emerged and U Street was redeveloped, the city changed. It is now a walkable, dense place that is attractive to many different types. And, the majority of my friends, even many with kids, don't bother owning a car. 16 years ago, there may have been a few professionals who tried to stay, but for the most part, they wouldn't if they actually valued walkability.
If you haven't lived here in some time, I would greatly suggest going on a long walk through Penn Quarter, 14th Street, U Street, Columbia Heights, and Mount Pleasant and think back about 15 years. These places are entirely different now and present a completely different set of circumstances for parents (or anyone) to consider.
Additionally, not all families who are looking for a bigger place will move west of the park. I know several families who are in the process of moving from condos to townhouses in Mount Pleasant.
People who leave the District and move to the suburbs have a different mindset than people who leave the suburbs to live in the District.
They do have a different mindset. People who leave the District to move to the suburbs often have children. Their mindset is safety and schools. People who leave the suburbs to move to the District usually do not have children. Their mindset is fun, beer, and more fun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever
The data that I've seen are too aggregated to allow one to draw any meaningful inference. There's a large enough shift in the demographics of the city that one really need to wait to see the data. I haven't seen a report of the change in population of white school aged children. Anecdotally, I see a lot more kid from affluent families living east of the park. Anecdotally we also hear of black families moving to PG county. Their kids would have left the DC system.
Lol. You must be here simply to amuse us all because you've clearly thrown logic and reason to the wind.
If "their [black families] kids would have left the DC system," then that would have an effect on Pre-K enrollment too, no? It's not like black families only have children aged for Grades 1-12. Why would it be the case that enrollment sank at every grade level with the exception of Pre-K? If middle class white families were moving to and staying in the city, then why don't we see a concomitant increase in enrollment levels in Kindergarten (Age 5)? First Grade? Second Grade? I guess your thinking is that a huge deluge of white families just arrived here and that their kids will be attending DCPS in time. My thinking is that they hit the bricks when their kids reach school age.
People who leave the District and move to the suburbs have a different mindset than people who leave the suburbs to live in the District. The first group generally has a hard time imagining living in the parts of the District that are growing rapidly. Twenty years ago the second group started moving east of Rock Creek Park. They continue to move to areas east of Rock Creek Park. East of the park is quite a bit different than west of the park. People who can't imagine living east of the park, don't understand the people who do.
There are plenty of people who were living east of Rock Creek Park decades ago who later moved to the suburbs. Perhaps some of them have even moved back to the city, but most likely after their kids were grown.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever
The data that I've seen are too aggregated to allow one to draw any meaningful inference. There's a large enough shift in the demographics of the city that one really need to wait to see the data. I haven't seen a report of the change in population of white school aged children. Anecdotally, I see a lot more kid from affluent families living east of the park. Anecdotally we also hear of black families moving to PG county. Their kids would have left the DC system.
Are white school-aged children special? The broader data point is that the number of school-age children in the District declined over the past 10 years. Anecdotes don't tell me much about what the future holds. There were children from affluent families living east of the park and black families moving to PG County 25 years ago.
If one wants to resort to anecdotes, what I see and hear are a fair number of upper-middle and upper-class whites and AAs (and not really anyone who is "middle class" in any meaningful sense of the word) who find living in DC convenient and interesting, but are torn because of the public school system's bad reputation. They are basically hoping that one or two things will happen: (1) lots more affluent families will move to the city so they can collectively "take control" of the public schools or (2) even if the number of affluent families moving to the city doesn't increase, middle-class and poor families (typically AA) will continue to depart for PG County and other Maryland counties, so that test scores will go up and they'll feel better about the perceived reputation of the schools.
That's a tall order; it's not particularly noble to go to bed every night praying that a real estate developer will displace more current residents and build a new condominium (which is why all the talk about the "values" of younger residents is bizarre); DCPS hasn't done a great job to date of managing a school system with unneeded facilities; and a lot of stars have to be aligned to make it happen. It's turned out to be quite a challenge even when DC was flush with federal money, so who knows what will happen if the funds stop flowing quite so freely to DC-area residents?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever
Snarky today aren't we. DC is a wonderful place to live -- diverse, vibrant, well educated, and increasingly a magnet for professional families. With all the problems facing the suburbs, I don't see that trend reversing.
There are issues facing the DC suburbs but, as BajanYankee noted, they continue to grow faster than DC itself in both absolute and percentage terms. Most locales would love to have the "problems" of the DC suburbs.
Last edited by JD984; 05-13-2011 at 10:34 AM..
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