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I am skeptical here. I would need to comb through DC urban policy back in those decades to really find serious incentives. The bottom line is that you are underestimating the effect of public policy incentives with regards to tax credits and subsidies to attract new residents. People don't take the risk of moving to blighted urban neighborhoods unless there was some carrot dangled for the urban "pioneers".
Daily commute from random suburb - 2 hours
Daily commute from downtown - 25 minutes
Choice - downtown
Small Townhome in Dupont - $1,000,000
Medium Townhome in Shaw - $400,000
Choice - Shaw
And you still got ripped off by paying $400,000 for a piece of Shaw. If you scored your property circa 1990, you would have made a killing during the real estate boom of 2002-2007.
Then again, no one who didn't have black skin and a bigger checking account moved to Shaw or any other place east of 16th Street back in the 1980s and 1990s. Why was that?
I am pretty sure people living in the DC region during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were sick of long commutes just like you. Traffic on the freeways was pretty congested back in the 1980s. Mortgages were pretty expensive in MontCo, Arlington and Fairfax too. Apartment rents were digging into young professional incomes. But there wasn't exactly a rush to crash the 'hood in DC during that time. Why was that? Why did this surge of urban dwelling happen around 2000 and after?
Quote:
Originally Posted by KStreetQB
Daily commute from random suburb - 2 hours
Daily commute from downtown - 25 minutes
Choice - downtown
Small Townhome in Dupont - $1,000,000
Medium Townhome in Shaw - $400,000
Choice - Shaw
Lifestyle values changed, Coldbliss. The change has been reflected in places with white people like Bethesda, Arlington, Silver Spring, and now Tysons Corner that have been recreated to reflect those new values, and it's reflected in places that were already urban in design like central DC that didn't have many white people until white people wanted to live in a cramped environment rather than the picket fence. The same thing happened all over the country no matter what color of skin people have or how big or small a city.
You give way too much credit to the power of local government to dictate people's actions.
And you still got ripped off by paying $400,000 for a piece of Shaw. If you scored your property circa 1990, you would have made a killing during the real estate boom of 2002-2007.
I have a four bedroom, three bath corner property in Shaw with a yard, about a block from the metro and walking distance to the golden triangle. My mortgage is less than a 2 bedroom rental in Logan. Are you getting more for your money renting in Silver Spring?
You can keep reforming the world to accomodate your views with stories about millionaires who just can't wait to move the hood to push black people out, but it's bullshlt. At the end of the day, young people who are sacrificing a little safety and comfort to buy in my neighborhood are simply seeking out housing convenient to work that they can afford.
In a few years, they'll own their homes while you'll still be waiting for a communist revolution to give you yours (which has to be in a nice neighborhood of course, because you've said explicitly you can't handle the crime that occurs in the neighborhoods that us silver-spoon gentrifiers are moving to).
Perhaps we're talking past each other, then. If one looks at empirical evidence of the growth rates in the DC region over the past decade, there's little indication that people in this area are abandoning the outer suburbs in favor of urban living in sufficient numbers to call it a "cultural shift":
Growth Rates 2000-10
Loudoun (VA) 84%
Prince William (VA) 43%
Charles (MD) 22%
Howard (MD) 16%
Fairfax (VA) 12%
Montgomery (MD) 11%
Arlington (VA) 10%
Prince Georges (MD) 8%
DC 5%
Emm, developable land? Continued outward shifts in employment (Average commute in LC is 30 minutes per census - from what you read n the NoVa forum, you would think it was 10 minutes). I think that given those factors, the 5% increase in DC, a turnaround from decades of decline is quite dramatic.
SOME of that is a desire to avoid the time and cost of long commutes. SOME of it represents a desire for a certain style of walkable, traditional or neo traditional neighborhood (see the constant requests for such on the NoVa forum, independent of employment location, resulting in regular suggestions of Del Ray, of Leesburg (for Dulles area employment)) which I think are reflective of cultural changes. And SOME of the change is a reflection of the improvements in DC - today folks are wary of DC cause of the public schools - I remember when people were wary of DC cause of ANY possible interaction with DC govt.
Look at how closely DC matches Arlington in housing prices, development, and population growth (note of course, DC still has areas of decline east of the river). DESPITE higher crime rates, despite the contrast in school systems. I think that that suggests some X factor at work.
"The favorable economic environment and profound optimism was there but you didn't see any major shift to urban neighborhoods. In the end, the 'walking" movement didn't happen by demand inertia or by accident. Urban planning researchers at universities and think tanks promoted this "walking" movement to the city officials. "
You dont think rising oil prices or growing consciousness of Global Warming had anything to do with that? I mean did the city officials also start this whole local food thing? or the hybrid cars?
Lifestyle values changed, Coldbliss. The change has been reflected in places with white people like Bethesda, Arlington, Silver Spring, and now Tysons Corner that have been recreated to reflect those new values, and it's reflected in places that were already urban in design like central DC that didn't have many white people until white people wanted to live in a cramped environment rather than the picket fence. The same thing happened all over the country no matter what color of skin people have or how big or small a city.
You give way too much credit to the power of local government to dictate people's actions.
To be fair, Arlington officials have been pushing to accommodate the change since BEFORE it was fashionable, and the changes in Tysons represent a similar, more belated visioning on the part of planners and office holders in Fairfax.
I would say you have an interaction of underlying social/economic forces with local govt "entrepreneurs" pursuing public policies to meet the demand (or failing to do so, such as PG, or not feeling any need to do so, such as LC)
Emm, developable land? Continued outward shifts in employment (Average commute in LC is 30 minutes per census - from what you read n the NoVa forum, you would think it was 10 minutes). I think that given those factors, the 5% increase in DC, a turnaround from decades of decline is quite dramatic.
SOME of that is a desire to avoid the time and cost of long commutes. SOME of it represents a desire for a certain style of walkable, traditional or neo traditional neighborhood (see the constant requests for such on the NoVa forum, independent of employment location, resulting in regular suggestions of Del Ray, of Leesburg (for Dulles area employment)) which I think are reflective of cultural changes. And SOME of the change is a reflection of the improvements in DC - today folks are wary of DC cause of the public schools - I remember when people were wary of DC cause of ANY possible interaction with DC govt.
Look at how closely DC matches Arlington in housing prices, development, and population growth (note of course, DC still has areas of decline east of the river). DESPITE higher crime rates, despite the contrast in school systems. I think that that suggests some X factor at work.
At some point in the process, it becomes a matter of semantics. The data speaks for itself. Not every major city has prospered over the past decade; to the contrary, some cities have continued to decline and become ever-poorer.
In comparison, this region boomed over the past decade, and the bulk of the growth was in the outer suburbs, due to a variety of reasons, some of which you acknowledged.
Accompanying that was a move of a growing number of affluent singles and childless couples to DC, and preferences frequently stated, but less often followed in practice, by a fair number of people for convenient walkable, transit-friendly areas in both urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.
If you or others want to equate that to a "cultural shift," it's OK with me, though I think it's hyperbolic. When major private employers in the area consistently pick a DC location over one near Tysons or Dulles, the number of children 5-17 not in poverty in DC starts to fall rapidly unaccompanied by a similar decline in the suburbs, and people actually start giving up their cars in large numbers (instead of simply responding favorably to survey questions that are designed to elicit their support for particular modes of development or living), I'll join those labeling recent trends a "cultural shift." Until then, it just seems like people making common-sense judgments about what's most convenient for them, recognizing that such judgments can be different depending on factors such as traffic congestion and crime.
I say this as someone who lives in an inside-the-Beltway suburb where people are tearing down the older homes left and right to build new homes in a location that's a tolerable drive to DC, well-served by public transit (buses within blocks and a short drive to a Metro station with a good parking lot), and within short walking distance of a host of restaurants of varying quality. So I don't feel personally left out of whatever bandwagon Brookings or anyone else wants us to jump on, just a bit skeptical and waiting for more hard data.
At some point in the process, it becomes a matter of semantics. The data speaks for itself. Not every major city has prospered over the past decade; to the contrary, some cities have continued to decline and become ever-poorer.
In comparison, this region boomed over the past decade, and the bulk of the growth was in the outer suburbs, due to a variety of reasons, some of which you acknowledged.
Accompanying that was a move of a growing number of affluent singles and childless couples to DC, and preferences frequently stated, but less often followed in practice, by a fair number of people for convenient walkable, transit-friendly areas in both urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.
If you or others want to equate that to a "cultural shift," it's OK with me, though I think it's hyperbolic. When major private employers in the area consistently pick a DC location over one near Tysons or Dulles, the number of children 5-17 not in poverty in DC starts to fall rapidly unaccompanied by a similar decline in the suburbs, and people actually start giving up their cars in large numbers (instead of simply responding favorably to survey questions that are designed to elicit their support for particular modes of development or living), I'll join those labeling recent trends a "cultural shift." Until then, it just seems like people making common-sense judgments about what's most convenient for them, recognizing that such judgments can be different depending on factors such as traffic congestion and crime.
I say this as someone who lives in an inside-the-Beltway suburb where people are tearing down the older homes left and right to build new homes in a location that's a tolerable drive to DC, well-served by public transit (buses within blocks and a short drive to a Metro station with a good parking lot), and within short walking distance of a host of restaurants of varying quality. So I don't feel personally left out of whatever bandwagon Brookings or anyone else wants us to jump on, just a bit skeptical and waiting for more hard data.
1. a cultural shift towards walkable downtown neighborhoods is not incompatible with overall urban decline - in Philly, Chicago and Baltimore (three I am aware of) theres been gentrification downtown and in nearby high density neighborhoods, while decline in more peripheral areas WITHIN city limits continues. Return to downtown/walkable /= revival of the whole city 1a. At least in our region there is movement to walkable neo trad located in areas NOT in the center city - there are examples in many other parts of the country as well.
2. less often followed in practice - duh, cause its expensive. The demand curve has shifted, but theres still price elasticity. It COSTLY pushing a frontier - which slows the rate of push.
3. employment locations - Employers face different sets of locational factors than residents. Though I find it interesting that Living Social does seem to want to stay in the District
4. Children in the city - Im pretty sure the NUMBER of children in poverty in DC has been going down recently, esp relative to PG. The proportion of children in poverty is going to be high because most of the new residents (as someone pointed out on GGW the other day) are childless. You can say thats not a cultural change - to me the increasing assumption that the young and childless will live in certain places and ways, represents a shift (and yes, I know some of us boomers did when we were young too - but the shift has gone further)
5. Giving up their cars. I continue to be befuddled why a turn away from auto dependence is constantly associated with being car free. If a household owns fewer cars, or smaller cars, or simply drives them less, thats a change. An important one.
"At some point in the process, it becomes a matter of semantics. The data speaks for itself. Not every major city has prospered over the past decade; to the contrary, some cities have continued to decline and become ever-poorer."
and in many of those the suburbs, especially the outer suburbs, have done badly as well. ESPECIALLY if you focus on the period from 2006 on.
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