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No news organization ever predicts a lop sided election. I predict Bowser wins by double digits.
I disagree with the "double digit" assessment. If she wins at all, she wins by 3-4%, max. That's my prediction. I personally think Catania could pull off a thin margin upset.
I think Catania is going to win this. I was EoTR the other day and I've seen quite a few people with Catania yard signs and some black folks campaigning for him on Alabama ave. Who knows this race could surprise everyone.
Catania will probably get about 25% of the vote. While Carol Schwartz and the rest of the irrelevant pretenders will split the other 28%.
I predict something very different: Catania 41% to Bowser's 40%. Schwartz and any write-ins split the rest.
My prediction rests heavily on heavier turnout of the "new to DC voter" and perhaps the propensity of new white voters to prop up a gay independent candidate. It really is a toss-up.
The Boweser to Catania ratio looks about right. I doubt the field gets 25%.
This may be a relatively low turnout election as I don't see either Bowser or Catania generating a great following.
Why does Bowser fail to inspire DC voters? This is pivotal time for DC. The city is need of some real direction. The money is flowing, but the problems are still many.
Looking at the polls it looks like Schwartz is a spoiler for Catania.
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