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The CEO of the company we are talking about is building a $20+ million dollar home in DC. There's SOMETHING going on in DC where he would spend time. He could very well build a home in Austin and fly to DC for brief meetings, etc. if there was nothing going on in DC. He wouldn't invest that much into a home that he wouldn't spend that much time in. That's just my opinion.
This is bigger than cover bands and music festivals.
The thing is the Seattle headquarters is not going away. The other issue is the fact that Bezos outright said he wants to spend more time in DC and revive the old Post dinner parties (from all estimates he is spending an increasing amount of time here). I don't think it is going to be built in Austin. That will force him to split time in a way he likely will not be interested in. Likewise the industries that Amazon wants to get into next, namely healthcare, are heavily regulated. Which places the advantage towards DC.
I am not saying DC will be the winner, but I don't think it will be Austin, or Atlanta for that matter.
Likewise in terms of cool, it is usually the cultural amenities the CEO likes that determines a cities location. For example a strike against Atlanta is it lacks a decent fine arts community. Austin may be great for rock music, but stinks in terms of theater (something DC, NYC, and Chicago all have). Likewise Austin lacks a major airport, DC has three. Never mind that either of these places are all that walkable or have decent public transit. People often view cultural amenities narrowly through their interest, without realizing it is much more expansive. Neither Austin or Atlanta has for example the theater scene DC has, nor an equivalent to the Kennedy Center for fine performance art. To get to that tier it is NYC, Boston, and Chicago. Again cultural amenities go beyond rock and pop shows. I do think the shortlist is actually DC, Boston, NYC, Chicago, Philly, and it pretty much ends there. If DC is going to lose out, it will be to one of those cities. You need cities that have a robust public transit core, the right mix of cultural amenities (this means restaurants, museums, fine art, theater, and music), and the right incentives. From what I understand of the cities which I think are leading contenders, only DC and Chicago are really providing incentives. Boston and NYC are not though (they have bids, but no financial incentives).
I don't think DC is doing anything wrong either. Nor do I think the cool factor matters all that much. Remember the top criteria is a heavily educated workforce on par with Seattle. The only two cities outside of Seattle that contend are DC and Boston. Both of which have over 50% of the population with a college education or higher. Being the nerd is to the advantage of DC.
I should note one thing that will need to be considered is what industries amazon is looking to get into the future, and all signs point to various things in healthcare. Prescription drugs, healthcare plans, etc. I would not even rule them out becoming a manufacturer of generic medications. This is a heavily regulated industry, and this is really to the advantage of DC in terms of HQ2. Every other factor is nothing compared to what the business direction of the company will be in the future. If this were just another tech headquarters, I would not rule out the other places. But there are other things going on, and Amazon is not just a tech company. They are a company expanding into other industries, some of which are heavily regulated. That is the thing...one has to look into moves Amazon will be making in the future to grasp why they want the second headquarters. They are not just a tech company.
In all fairness, I think Apple's second headquarters could end up in Austin. Just not Amazons. It has in large part to do with where each company is heading. Amazon is looking towards healthcare (and other industries), and Apple is still going to be primarily focused on software and hardware, and maybe self driving cars.
Right so how do we absorb/change this in the future, for more "cool" "hip" jobs to come to this market in the future. For the life of me I can see how an Austin for example at least on the surface could appear as a more "cool" place especially for a younger person to be, but would choose to live in work in and around the DC metro area 100 times out of 100 over Austin, and that's no slight to that city.
There are a lot of not only cool, but absolutely amazing things about DC.
I really think the media and websites like this one just anoint places titles based on either hype or just choosing to dislike one place over the other.
The problem with DC is our public media image is very different from reality. DC is a very hip and cool city. However, on TV its all about the Government, Spy crap and politics. Movies and TV shows set in DC are always about something related to Government, politics, spy stuff, etc.
That's why people are always presently surprised when they visit. But they have to visit first. Until they do.. they have that false media image in their mind.
Not much you can do about it because NYC, LA and SF are usually Hollywood's "go-to" cities for normal stories they want to tell. DC comes in when the story is about Government, politics or spy crap. Nothing "fun" is ever set in DC. Its a branding issue.
But legal marijuana and a large gay population definitely helps take the edge off a little.
In all fairness, I think Apple's second headquarters could end up in Austin. Just not Amazons. It has in large part to do with where each company is heading. Amazon is looking towards healthcare (and other industries), and Apple is still going to be primarily focused on software and hardware, and maybe self driving cars.
Apple is planning another campus (and it already has one in Austin--its largest in fact), not a second headquarters.
The thing is the Seattle headquarters is not going away. The other issue is the fact that Bezos outright said he wants to spend more time in DC and revive the old Post dinner parties (from all estimates he is spending an increasing amount of time here). I don't think it is going to be built in Austin. That will force him to split time in a way he likely will not be interested in. Likewise the industries that Amazon wants to get into next, namely healthcare, are heavily regulated. Which places the advantage towards DC.
I am not saying DC will be the winner, but I don't think it will be Austin, or Atlanta for that matter.
Likewise in terms of cool, it is usually the cultural amenities the CEO likes that determines a cities location. For example a strike against Atlanta is it lacks a decent fine arts community. Austin may be great for rock music, but stinks in terms of theater (something DC, NYC, and Chicago all have). Likewise Austin lacks a major airport, DC has three. Never mind that either of these places are all that walkable or have decent public transit. People often view cultural amenities narrowly through their interest, without realizing it is much more expansive. Neither Austin or Atlanta has for example the theater scene DC has, nor an equivalent to the Kennedy Center for fine performance art. To get to that tier it is NYC, Boston, and Chicago. Again cultural amenities go beyond rock and pop shows. I do think the shortlist is actually DC, Boston, NYC, Chicago, Philly, and it pretty much ends there. If DC is going to lose out, it will be to one of those cities. You need cities that have a robust public transit core, the right mix of cultural amenities (this means restaurants, museums, fine art, theater, and music), and the right incentives. From what I understand of the cities which I think are leading contenders, only DC and Chicago are really providing incentives. Boston and NYC are not though (they have bids, but no financial incentives).
I don't think DC is doing anything wrong either. Nor do I think the cool factor matters all that much. Remember the top criteria is a heavily educated workforce on par with Seattle. The only two cities outside of Seattle that contend are DC and Boston. Both of which have over 50% of the population with a college education or higher. Being the nerd is to the advantage of DC.
I should note one thing that will need to be considered is what industries amazon is looking to get into the future, and all signs point to various things in healthcare. Prescription drugs, healthcare plans, etc. I would not even rule them out becoming a manufacturer of generic medications. This is a heavily regulated industry, and this is really to the advantage of DC in terms of HQ2. Every other factor is nothing compared to what the business direction of the company will be in the future. If this were just another tech headquarters, I would not rule out the other places. But there are other things going on, and Amazon is not just a tech company. They are a company expanding into other industries, some of which are heavily regulated. That is the thing...one has to look into moves Amazon will be making in the future to grasp why they want the second headquarters. They are not just a tech company.
In all fairness, I think Apple's second headquarters could end up in Austin. Just not Amazons. It has in large part to do with where each company is heading. Amazon is looking towards healthcare (and other industries), and Apple is still going to be primarily focused on software and hardware, and maybe self driving cars.
Good points.
MoCo does have a large biotech industry, NIH, FDA and is trying to expand on the east side of the county with the FDA. THat COULD be why MoCo made the final list.
Crystal City or Rosslyn could really wind up the winner here.
I'm not so sure about that especially with their height limits because of the airport. They will always be height capped because of that. Plus Crystal city would need major redevelopment, you would have to tear down a lot of buildings for Amazon to go there. Too many 1960s era class C office buildings in Crystal city, the area just looks very depressing and nothing vibrant about it.
As for Rosslyn, not sure they have enough space (didnt the county planning say its at build out?)... and again the height limits because of the FAA.
I really think Amazon wants downtown Bethesda, it doesnt have a real height limit cap like Rosslyn, only the idiots on the Montgoemry planning board are getting in the way, artificially manipulating the height limits in the county but Bethesda could easily support 600+ Foot tower. Bethesda has a shot if not better than Rosslyn.
Same goes for downtown Silver Spring which doesnt have any real height limit issues but is arbitrarily and artificially capped by the planning board and county. Silver Spring is also the most truly diverse urban district in the whole DC area. For Bezos to give a DACA donation of $33 million (more than that house in DC), why not walk the walk if you're going to talk the the talk and pick Silver Spring/Montgomery County which has far more diverse in population and demographics than northern Virgina. Silver Spring would also have the only ready and turnkey office building that's Class A and over 500,000 square feet in the DC area, that's designed for a corporate user. Silver Spring actually has more land for development for 8 million square feet than any of the other urban districts in the area.
If Amazon doesn't choose DC I think it will be brand name related.
In other words.. "hidden criteria" might make DC lose. Hidden criteria is always present. There are always preferences that sound too absurd to say out loud, so you stick to the logical ones on paper while still holding a bias. That's a big possibility.
Dating sites are a good example. You list the qualities you want, but most people won't say something like: "Must have all your teeth". That would be a "hidden criteria".
Let's say Amazon wants a "hip city". While DC is more hip than it used to be, it can't rival Austin, NYC or even Philly in that way. DC has a unique brand name like all the other cities on the list. But DC's image might not be what Amazon wants.
Playing devils advocate though.
D.C. still lacks that entrepreneurial spirit, it mostly worker bees in the area, there's just something about the atmosphere here that lacks ambition and being competitive, especially as a collective. D.C. proper is still focused on generating revenue with parking tickets, arbitrary speed cameras, fees and taxes on residents hunting them down to squeeze money out them any chance they can get. I've never seen so many vehicular cameras in other parts of the country like in DC proper/ and Maryland. This will be a shock to many who move here from other parts oft he country and a big reason why millennials dont want to stay in the DC area, the costs dont outweigh the benefits. You really aren't getting any services for what you have to fork over from your hard earned money.
Despite having the leg up and a head start northern Virginia could never grasp an environment anywhere near silicon valley despite it's "Internet Capital of the world" mantra which quickly faded after AOL became just a shell and disappeared entirely and Sprint who moved their headquarters out of northern Virginia. Despite decades of efforts, Maryland's biotech industry is mostly a bunch of fledgling firms with not one independent anchor with market value of even $30 billion+, even with NIH and the FDA within its bounds. D.C. proper only has 1 fortune 500 and the strong sting of failed companies like Living Social means the that the tech scene is not as robust as some would like to believe, D.c. proper is still a government leasing and K street attorney's town.
The Nanny state with the goal to control every aspect of your life and lack of entrepreneurial spirit in the region will be the underlying/hidden/unspoken "feature" as to why the D.C. area is not picked. The irony of liberals who cry "live free or die".
Last edited by TheJetSet; 02-09-2018 at 10:39 AM..
H Street Festival, Broccoli city, Trillectro, to name a few. I still miss DC Caribbean carnival down GA Ave. DC has plenty of "hip" stuff, but never gets the recognition associated to it's name like other places. I think that's because those cities seek to brand themselves as "hip" or "cool".
DC area lacks the ability of collective promotion when there is a critical mass and synergy. So many famous people have come from the area "(How does Maryland get no recognition for raising a founder of Google from youth?) but there is that "you think you're better than us now that you're made it big" mentality that holds this area back too.
MoCo does have a large biotech industry, NIH, FDA and is trying to expand on the east side of the county with the FDA. THat COULD be why MoCo made the final list.
The more I think of it, if we are talking healthcare, not only does Montgomery County have those things but also has the the Mid-Atlantic States headquarters of Kaiser Permanente and despite being bought by Aetna, Coventry Healthcare still has a presence in north Bethesda. There is a lot of drug manufacturing space and know-how in the County as well as the only FDA approved data center in Silver Spring which can properly protect health records.
D.C. still lacks that entrepreneurial spirit, it mostly worker bees in the area, there's just something about the atmosphere here that lacks ambition and being competitive, especially as a collective. D.C. proper is still focused on generating revenue with parking tickets, arbitrary speed cameras, fees and taxes on residents hunting them down to squeeze money out them any chance they can get. I've never seen so many vehicular cameras in other parts of the country like in DC proper/ and Maryland. This will be a shock to many who move here from other parts oft he country and a big reason why millennials dont want to stay in the DC area, the costs dont outweigh the benefits. You really aren't getting any services for what you have to fork over from your hard earned money.
Despite having the leg up and a head start northern Virginia could never grasp an environment anywhere near silicon valley despite it's "Internet Capital of the world" mantra which quickly faded after AOL became just a shell and disappeared entirely and Sprint who moved their headquarters out of northern Virginia. Despite decades of efforts, Maryland's biotech industry is mostly a bunch of fledgling firms with not one independent anchor with market value of even $30 billion+, even with NIH and the FDA within its bounds. D.C. proper only has 1 fortune 500 and the strong sting of failed companies like Living Social means the that the tech scene is not as robust as some would like to believe, D.c. proper is still a government leasing and K street attorney's town.
The Nanny state with the goal to control every aspect of your life and lack of entrepreneurial spirit in the region will be the underlying/hidden/unspoken "feature" as to why the D.C. area is not picked. The irony of liberals who cry "live free or die".
As much as I don't want to agree with you, I can't really come up with a counter argument to this.
Though I think DC is better than it used to be and on a steady path to improvement in most of the areas you mentioned. I also think DC wants to be competitive as a "world class city" and this requires that the city pulls the stick out of its butt ASAP. Millennials increasingly have little patience for stiffness and overly conservative work environments.
We will also see more changes locally and nationally as Millennials become more active voters and actually "drain the swamp" for real. Someone is electing these Government stiffs after all. Once the older generation releases their death grip on the steering wheel of power via death, retirement or getting voted out, that's when you will start to see real change.
I'm not so sure about that especially with their height limits because of the airport. They will always be height capped because of that. Plus Crystal city would need major redevelopment, you would have to tear down a lot of buildings for Amazon to go there. Too many 1960s era class C office buildings in Crystal city, the area just looks very depressing and nothing vibrant about it.
As for Rosslyn, not sure they have enough space (didnt the county planning say its at build out?)... and again the height limits because of the FAA.
I really think Amazon wants downtown Bethesda, it doesnt have a real height limit cap like Rosslyn, only the idiots on the Montgoemry planning board are getting in the way, artificially manipulating the height limits in the county but Bethesda could easily support 600+ Foot tower. Bethesda has a shot if not better than Rosslyn.
Same goes for downtown Silver Spring which doesnt have any real height limit issues but is arbitrarily and artificially capped by the planning board and county. Silver Spring is also the most truly diverse urban district in the whole DC area. For Bezos to give a DACA donation of $33 million (more than that house in DC), why not walk the walk if you're going to talk the the talk and pick Silver Spring/Montgomery County which has far more diverse in population and demographics than northern Virgina. Silver Spring would also have the only ready and turnkey office building that's Class A and over 500,000 square feet in the DC area, that's designed for a corporate user. Silver Spring actually has more land for development for 8 million square feet than any of the other urban districts in the area.
It won't happen in downtown Bethesda because the wealthy NIMBYs would be out in full force. Bethesda is old money and wouldn't care a wit what millennials want or need. As they get up in age, they become more resistant to change. You bring in 50k young employees to their backyard, there will be weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. Moreso than with the Purple Line. You already have Marriott moving into Bethesda. Amazon HQ2 would be too much too soon. Also, downtown Bethesda is all work and no live/play. The result is that most of the workers would be commuters. Commuters = traffic and congestion. A double-negative. Height? We had people in University Park balk at a 33 story building at the Mall because they said it would block out the sun in their neighborhood.
Downtown Silver Spring would be a better choice, but there would be some eminent domain that would chew up some single-family homes as downtown Silver Spring has been about 70% redeveloped already with residences. THere is little transition from the towers in DTSS to the single-family residences that surround downtown. There's just no space without pushing out current older businesses and residences. The Amazon buildings would have to be spread out. You could get higher towers than in Bethesda, but you may get pushback from the neighboring single-family home neighborhoods which are adjacent to the downtown area [That damn shadow]. Traffic would be a nightmare even with the Red and Purple Lines as people using George Ave. and 16th Street to get to DC from the Beltway and points North and Silver Spring and Bethesda from points East.
WHite Flint, though further out, has the breathing room at least. Even though the traffic impact will be the same no matter where Amazon HQ2 lands.
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