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Now that it’s officially April …I though weather watchers in the USA and southern Canada would be interested to see what the spring forecast (April 1st to June 1st) looks like in terms of temps and precipitation:
As we move through April certain features start to make their appearance in the USA and southern Canada on the daily weather map:
1) In the northern tier of the USA/southern Canada… precip becomes more localized and spotty in nature (due to the increased heating and rising air).
2) Across the southern subtropical tier – the subtropical highs start increasing in size and strength and move toward the lower West and East Coast of the USA: The Pacific High moves to the latitude of the central California coast, so storm tracks move northward and precipitation becomes less across southern California. The Bermuda High/south Atlantic High also moves closer to the mainland and intensifies, so storm tracks move northward, rainfall becomes less, and the heat starts building in the Gulf and south Atlantic states. The dry season and fire danger really ramp up in Florida in April.
3) The thermal low begins to reappear in the Desert southwest/northern Mexico – so heat and dryness return to the American Southwestern states.
4) The path of polar highs from northwestern Canada into the USA Midwest/Great Plains slowly becomes replaced with highs moving from west to east across the Pacific Ocean, so the number of sub 32 F (0 C) nights starts to fall quickly in the northern USA and southern Canada. During the month of April – the solar angle moves ten degrees northward to about 15 North (the latitude of Guatemala and Honduras).
According to NOAA, spring 2011 (April 1 to June 1) looks like it will warmer than normal across much of the southern tier (southern California to South Carolina)…and cooler than normal in the Western High Plains and Pacific Northwest. In terms of precipitation – much of the same areas that look to be warmer than normal look to be drier than normal:
Just for balance - here are the forecast highs for Saturday - …most areas close to climo, although places in the southern Plains/Rockies (Denver, KC, ..etc) will be above normal, and it looks like the thermal high is getting started early in the Desert Southwest – Phoenix may get close to 100 F:
Typical La Nina pattern. Tends to be drier and warmer in the southern half of the country, cooler and wetter in the northern tier. The NWS has been forecasting this model since last fall.
The forecast for being dryer than average is certainly troubling considering the drought conditions across the south. Looks like there has been some improvements, but who knows how long they'll last. Seems as though Louisiana, for example, has been in a drought for quite some time. Florida could certainly use more rain as well.
It feels the weather hasn't really warmed up much this way.. 46F high in Seattle as evidence of this on that map.. I do feel the higher solar angle though if that's any consolation.
It feels the weather hasn't really warmed up much this way.. 46F high in Seattle as evidence of this on that map.. I do feel the higher solar angle though if that's any consolation.
A University of Washington professor made a really good point about the Pacific Northwest spring (which should also include the southwest part of British Columbia)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Clifford Mass
In the eastern part of the U.S. there are frequently big storms in March---remember the old saw of March coming in like a lion and going out like a lamb? For us, March should be replaced by February.
But we pay for our early spring in a strange way...it never ends! Our spring often lasts into early July, while in the east summer-like weather starts in May and June.
The forecast for being dryer than average is certainly troubling considering the drought conditions across the south. Looks like there has been some improvements, but who knows how long they'll last. Seems as though Louisiana, for example, has been in a drought for quite some time. Florida could certainly use more rain as well.
Yeah, it's been like that since early last year, maybe even longer. It's interesting that much of central/southeastern Mississippi has received plenty of rain while northern Louisiana just across the river is in a severe/extreme drought. My only possible guess since I'm not a meteorologist is that, since last year, rain-producing systems haven't been fueled by the Gulf of Mexico until they come across the Mississippi River.
Here's an example of what I mean: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/jan/W...r_rainfall.png
Some rainfall on March 8th-9th. Southeastern Mississippi received flooding rains while much of northern Louisiana didn't receive half an inch.
Interesting, and not a major surprise! April 3rd and we had rain/sleet/hail/huge snowflakes plus a thunder/lightning, too this a.m.! Spring in the midwest!
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April 3rd and we had rain/sleet/hail/huge snowflakes plus a thunder/lightning, too this a.m.! Spring in the midwest! 
