Are very long-term or seasonal forecasts any good? (record, temperatures, days)

[AdriannaSmiling]

What do you think of seasonal outlooks that call for above or below average temperatures or precipitation? What is their track record? How about the Old Farmer's Almanac vs. modern day scientific approaches to predicting an entire season's temperatures and precipitations in comparison to normals within a given region?

[alex985]

No they are not, especially Farmer's Almanac.

[Glacierx]

Farmer's Almanac is junk science. Even the scientific ones aren't much better than chance when it comes to predicting the seasons.

[Full Overcast]

When the BOM issues long term seasonal forecasts, more often than not the exact opposite happens

[Ethereal]

Long term forecasts are usually bull.

I think only 3 days forecast is the most accurate (95%). 5 days is good too (90% accuracy). 7 days isn't bad (80%).

10 day weather forecast (and more) is not always accurate as conditions can change in the last minute.

[elnina]

Everything over 10 days is absolutely unreliable, and most forecasts over 3 days are only a good guessing.
Heck, often a forecast for the next day is wrong...

[Jas182]

To be fair. The British weather is so changeable that nobody knows what the day will bring, yet alone months in advance! (Though the Met Office does try!)
Today was forecast sunny, but instead it's mostly cloudy!..
Also some old man told me. That if it rains one day, there is a 70% chance of a fair day the next, this is because the fair day is between Atlantic weather systems... But not sure if I believe that to be honest...

[MeteoMan]

I don't think so. Whenever I see somebody trying to release a forecast any more than about two weeks in advance of a time I have a little laugh and say "guesswork would be as accurate" - because it's true.

[Anhityk]

I think forecasts over 10 days are quite unbelievable.

[tenkier7]

Agree with all the above, 10 days forecast is the maximum that's fairly reliable, usually they change in every hours though.