Climate talk: Europe (hot, record, temperature, days)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It was only 30~32°C when I checked the forecast last time, very shocking at the sudden change, maybe glitched or overestimating the model?
Perhaps there is a possibility to record the highest temperature in May since 1944.
26.0C the high in Bingley today, which equals our record high for May. We're predicted mid-20s and sunny tomorrow so we could easily go a bit higher - it's probably the easiest record left to break.
We've already broken our record for the highest overnight low in May this month at 14.1C, and the forecast lows for the next three days are 14, 15 and 14. Not bad
Location: Segovia, central Spain, 1230 m asl, Csb Mediterranean with strong continental influence, 40º43 N
3,094 posts, read 3,575,683 times
Reputation: 1036
I can't wait for Stofex forecast for today at the evening:
Spain, Portugal, the Bay of Biscay, NW-France and SW-UK ...
An EML plume spreads north from NW Africa all the way to far S-Ireland. Mid-level lapse rates approach or exceed 8K/km over Spain with less magnitude further north. Mid-level lapse rates regionally offset meager BL moisture, which improves somewhat over SW-France and NW Spain during the forecast. Overlap of both ingredients assists in widespread 800 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE over NW Spain and similar values over far W-France.
The grazing trough brings stronger winds to NW-Spain and N-Portugal, where DLS exceeds 20 m/s during the day. Further south over Spain, DLS remains aoa 15 m/s with lower values over W-France.
Initiation will be bound to the approaching upper trough, which pushes a cold front east. Ongoing storms over N-Portugal and NW Spain from the previous night continue during the day. A few organized storms are well possible before noon over far NW-Spain and N-Portugal with 800 J/kg MLCAPE and 20 m/s DLS. Large hail will be the main hazard.
As the cold front approaches and pushes east around noon and during the afternoon, widespread CI occurs in the highlighted region (level 2). CAPE/shear overlap favors well organized multicells/a few supercells. Large hail can be expected and an isolated very large hail event (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm) can't be excluded. The severe wind gust risk restricts itself to maturing storms with cold pool driven gusts. Betimes, as storms enter N-CNTRL Spain, a deeper mixed subcloud layer may enhance the overall wind gust threat and an organized MCS may push east over N-CTRNL Spain. We expanded the level-1 area further north to include extreme SW France, which could be affected by that MCS, probably weakening due to increasing CIN. After night, departing forcing to the north and lowering CAPE/increasing CIN lowers the thunderstorm and severe risk over N-Spain, too.
The level 1 was expanded far south to CNTRL-Spain, where similar CAPE and 15 m/s DLS support organized multicells/isolated supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazard. CI decreases from N to S due to weaker forcing.
Over W-France/SW-UK, the air mass stays capped until sunset. Thereafter, initiation is expected over the NE-Bay of Biscay and far NW-France as the trough and front both approach from the SW. Forecast soundings show elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1 kJ/kg with 15-20 m/s DLS. Thunderstorms grow upscale into an organized cluster of storms quite fast. This cluster crosses the W-English Channel and affects SW-UK during the second part of the night, where large hail will be well possible. In addition, low to mid-tropospheric winds strengthen over that region during the night to 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Elevated nature of storms should limit the overall severe wind gust threat, but we can't exclude the chance for stronger downdrafts to penetrate through the stable layer. Therefore strong to isolated severe wind gusts are also forecast. Heavy rain is possible over NW-France but confidence decreases for SW-UK due to the progressive nature of the cluster and its late arrival.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
