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Well one of the analog years I heard mentioned was 1976-77. That winter would blow last winter out of the water, at least in my area. Not sure about Chicago though.
If this winter resembles 1976-1977 it would be nearly as cold as last winter
What's striking about the coldest winter on record for Chicago in 1903-04, those measurements were taken on the lakefront. Imagine how much colder the inland stations were (Midway airport did not exist until 1928)
But January of 1977 was actually the coldest month on record here. Just look at these temps and averages across the metro area
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 10-06-2014 at 09:19 AM..
Whoa, it looks like portions of the gulf states took a beating during the winter of 2009/2010, can't really tell the anomaly intensity all that well for 2002/2003 but I know that winter in Indianapolis saw 46.9 inches of snow and the coldest low temperature was -9 degrees Fahrenheit below zero, 2009/2010 if I recall correctly saw extreme morning lows that never even went below zero degrees
Whoa, nice stats! Yup, 2009-10 1°F was the lowest there. Last year -15 but not in Top10 coldest minimum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Well one of the analog years I heard mentioned was 1976-77. That winter would blow last winter out of the water, at least in my area. Not sure about Chicago though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
If this winter resembles 1976-1977 it would be nearly as cold as last winter
For here, there were 17 other winters colder than last year. Yes.. 17 other ones and only since 1948. lol
Last year wasn't cold by my standards. Sure we had a few arctic spells and I hadn't seen the Long Island Sound freeze like that since the 1990s but it wasn't cold compared to what we used to go through.
If this winter resembles 1976-1977 it would be nearly as cold as last winter
What's striking about the coldest winter on record for Chicago in 1903-04, those measurements were taken on the lakefront. Imagine how much colder the inland stations were (Midway airport did not exist until 1928)
But January of 1977 was actually the coldest month on record here. Just look at these temps and averages across the metro area
I heard somewhere that a cold October is a sign of a warm winter and vice versa. Does anyone know how accurate that is.
They did a statistical sampling of this for Washington DC
Quote:
Graph showing the 47 snowiest D.C. winters (seasonal totals ≥ 20”) and the average temperature anomaly recorded during the prior October. The blue bars display the snow totals and the red bars (at bottom) display the October temperature anomaly (positive and negative values representing the distance from the normal temperature). The overwhelming majority of anomalies are negative, reflecting a colder-than-normal October.
Quote:
The map at left shows cold October temperatures (compared to normal) prevail over the D.C. area and eastern third of the U.S. prior to the snowiest Washington winters. Only the October temperature anomalies prior to the snowiest winters since 1949 are reflected in the map given plotting data limitations. At right, I show the November-March composite 500 mb anomaly pattern for the same subset of snowiest winters. Note the blocking high pressure (yellow, orange, and red colors) extending from Alaska to Greenland. This type of blocking pattern is actually a better indicator of winter snowfall potential, but cannot be reliably predicted until after October.
I heard somewhere that a cold October is a sign of a warm winter and vice versa. Does anyone know how accurate that is.
Actually that does not apply to Philadelphia. 82% of winters that follow an October with a mean temp anomaly of 3F or more end up being warmer than average.
Oh thank God. Something to look forward to during this God forsaking month where I cant drop below mid 40s and my highs are still in the 70s.. Should be snowing 12 months a year! (can you tell I been edgy today??? LOL)
"As we head toward the snow season NWS NY will occasionally and briefly post experimental snow graphics for this upcoming season."
According to the October Pattern Index (OPI) another COLD winter could be coming.
October is a BIG month for forecasters as it's a month that usually sets the tone for the entire winter.
I've stumbled upon a theory/index known as the October Pattern Index which is said to be almost 90% accurate in predicting the Arctic Oscillation.
During the winter months we want to see a NEGATIVE Arctic Oscillation which tells us the main polar vortex is weak thus allowing for cold air to push into the United States. When the Arctic Oscillation remains positive the cold air is trapped at the poles thus creating a milder pattern across the eastern United States.
The OPI was created by an Italian meteorologist by the name of Riccardo Valente along with his colleagues who looked at upper-air patterns in October.
If the OPI stays in a negative mode through the rest of October (which it is in now) the chances increase that we may sustain a negative Arctic Oscillation through the winter months.
Check out the correlation between the Arctic Ocillation and Valentes' OPI
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