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what non natives are you worried about? mango's, Bananas,etc? hey didn't you guys get to freezing in 2010? here it depended in what neighborhood you were. My area got close to it, temp fell to 34f(1c) we had frost and all but my coconut and mango's tree's survived. in the southwest though where my aunt lives the temp fell to 30f and killed her coconut tree. I don't want any other winters like that.
That's odd. It got down to 29F is Jan 2010 and 26F in Dec 2010, but it seems like most of the coconut palms around here survived. Mangos and bananas are alright, it's just the troublesome invasive plants you have to worry about.
That's odd. It got down to 29F is Jan 2010 and 26F in Dec 2010, but it seems like most of the coconut palms around here survived. Mangos and bananas are alright, it's just the troublesome invasive plants you have to worry about.
Latest CFSV2 run blasting the east and south east this winter with deep anomalies
So when the worst model out there agrees with your climate bias you are all for it lol. If that was showing the opposite you would rip it apart. Can't have it both ways. Either the model sucks or it doesn't.
Did you know out of 10 Weak Ninos Central Park NYC only got over 25 inches of snow 3 times. 1969-70, 1977-78, 2004-05 Most were in the teens only (below normal)
Atlanta got 1"or more 5 times.
Knoxville TN above normal 7 of the 10.
Richmond Virginia got double digit snowfalls in 7 of the 10 years. Normal is 10.3"
Bridgeport, CT flip flops, there were some horrible years(little snow), some normal years, and 2 well above normal years. 57" in 2004-05 and 52" 1977-78.
Hartford, CT same mix as Bridgeport except they had 74" in 2004-05 and 93" in 1977-78.
Almost feels like by a quick check that snow favors SouthEast more than Great lakes. Weird. Will have to dig deeper though.
According to a study done by Ralph Fato, during a "weak" El Niño, many winters have brought above-normal snowfall for cities such at New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford and Chicago. However during strong El Niño winters, snowfall trends to well-below average
Moderate and strong El Ninos are not favorable for snow here....
SST's now resemble Modoki, not an traditional El Nino
Here are the current SST's
If 1976-77 and 2009-2010 are two analog years..... We might be in for above average snow here. I wish I was able to identify other winters that had Modoki to get a better picture
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-25-2014 at 07:58 AM..
Moderate and strong El Ninos are not favorable for snow here....
If 1976-77 and 2009-2010 are two analog years..... We might be in for above average snow here. I wish I was able to identify other winters that had Modoki to get a better picture
Yeah, weak Ninos favor coastal storms which means maybe less snow for Great Lakes area but more for TN Valley/SouthEast... Also means rains possible for the coast. Kinda funny how we are just getting the coastal systems started with 2 in the past 2 weeks.
There's a fine line here between how far it stays off shore. SUCKS! Too far and we get too little snow, too close and we get rain. Ugh
Moderate and strong El Ninos are not favorable for snow here....
SST's now resemble Modoki, not an traditional El Nino
Here are the current SST's
If 1976-77 and 2009-2010 are two analog years..... We might be in for above average snow here. I wish I was able to identify other winters that had Modoki to get a better picture
Hey George, you might want to check out the latest Sept Jamstec. Or maybe you already saw it, as Bastardi has, but don't want to show it.
It calls for above normal temps in my neck of the woods this winter, and below in yours. Also, the Southeast looks normal to just slightly below with small anomalies (probably due to high precipitation forecasted). The largest anomalies are in your neck of the woods.
I'm curious how Bastardi will somehow twist this to say we will still be cold in the East, or somehow this is pointing to 1976-77 lol. Those anomalies are nothing at all like 1976-77. But he will do it due to his huge cold bias in everything he writes.
I will tell you though, that the Jamstec was completely off with their forecast last September. These long range models all seem to be way off this far out if you ask me.
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