Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (tornadoes, snow, warm, temp)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Ugh, I can't even look at the models now, way too much zonal blowtorch flow. I guess I have to wait until December for anything interesting.

Check out the EuroEns after next week. On road now, will post later. Grab coffee before you look. Lol

Something brewing my interest after the 8th.

[nei]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Ugh, I can't even look at the models now, way too much zonal blowtorch flow. I guess I have to wait until December for anything interesting.

By December, El Niño's impact should be apparent; should help continue the zonal flow.

[ral31]

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

By December, El Niño's impact should be apparent; should help continue the zonal flow.

Its the dips and the timing you have to watch for.

Overall more warm days but what happened last time will happen again.

But my comment was more for storms rather than snow although gets close

[ral31]

On the edge of a tornado warning right now.

It says confirmed tornado.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by nei

By December, El Niño's impact should be apparent; should help continue the zonal flow.

Not the only factor, but will be a player in the game. AO, NAO, and PNA will still be important as well.

[Cambium]

K.. here we go.. Latest Euro Ensembles..

Using small images since there's a lot & it's showing an active pattern

1. Tomorrow storm moves from South (the one RAlex is getting) and exits Virginia. No rain north of NY. Top edge is close! Mostly Mid Atlantic Rains Monday. Light.

This Frame is for Tuesday 1am



2. Mid Week. Storm goes from Plains to Canada.

This frame is for Thursday 7am (12z = 7am now with new time change) Use the blue dotted line as the Polar Jet stream and snow is north and west of that line.. Big push from south with warmth into the Eastern U.S, snow for Manitonba



3. End of week. More of a front than a storm

Friday 1pm. Not much on the cold side but cold is dropping down behind it. Warm in East.



4. Next weekend.

Storm comes from the South, enters Ohio Valley and strengthens into New England.. Rain for everyone but as it Exits New England coast Sunday night moisture still left behind and is very cold so it snows in New England and snow showers across NY & MA.

Sunday 7pm



5. BOOM. Very long range so probably BS. Big Nor Easter Thursday November 12th. Notice the dotted blue line... no where near.. All rain and very strong winds.

But what happens to this Nor Easter? It doesn't keep moving...



It backs into Maine with cold air filtering in.. So snowstorm for New England... How much? Mountains could get some big accumulations by mid Month if all this pans out




Here's the snow total for all the storms but the last 2 are the ones that really produce the most for New England.

[SFX]

Saw this blog thought of this topic

Early Clues for 2015-2016 Winter Weather | PropaneBuzz.com
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[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

5. BOOM. Very long range so probably BS. Big Nor Easter Thursday November 12th. Notice the dotted blue line... no where near.. All rain and very strong winds.

So that Euro shows the Nor Easter November 12th. Check out the GFS just out. A Great Lakester? (??) November 13th. Huge storm. Blizzard for Wisconsin, Michigan, & Chicago!

LaLaLand folks But 2 different models pick up on a big storm in same time period.. Fun Fun. GFS would bring snow shows into Kentucky.

[Cambium]

That's a fierce line of storms in Louisiana & Mississippi right now. Tornado Warnings in Red. Flash Flood in Green. It's going from nothing to darkness and storms in minutes for some.