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For us this above normal pattern has only been around since the end of August. So not even a month.
Plus, Bastardi already forecast this winter to be back loaded with most of the cold and snow at the end of January and into February and March, so I'm preparing myself for a "Dixie" Christmas and New Years as was the case during the 82' El Nino. That December we had an average high which would be normal in for Philly.
However sometimes patterns can change on a dime. Check out the summer and fall of 1983, and then look at December.
That map for the typical Christmas daytime high temperatures looks too warm. It has 60 degree as an average high getting up to almost Atlanta in GA when the average high on Christmas Day in Atlanta is 53 F, it has Nashville as over 50 degrees when the average high there is 47 F, and it has Downeast Maine as 40-50 F as an average high?
That map for the typical Christmas daytime high temperatures looks too warm. It has 60 degree as an average high getting up to almost Atlanta in GA when the average high on Christmas Day in Atlanta is 53 F, it has Nashville has over 50 degrees when the average high there is 47 F, and it has Downeast Maine as 40-50 F as an average high?
I noticed that too. Lines seems to be a little too far north. Mean max here on Christmas Day is 36 F/2 C.
I noticed that too. Lines seems to be a little too far north. Mean max here on Christmas Day is 36 F/2 C.
The 60 F as average high line for Christmas should stop in South GA about 50-60 miles north of the FL border (in inland areas). The 50 F high should stop on the GA/TN border (or the AL/TN border) and the 40 F average high on Christmas should stop south of Boston which has an average high of 38 F on Christmas.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
804 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVERING AND CROSSING THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. EASTWARD PROPOGATION OF LINE TIMES IT INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND STATE COLLEGE AREA BETWEEN 830 AND 900 PM. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWLY WANING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA AS OF 8 PM...AND EVEN THE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE UNABLE TO INITIATE ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS OF THIS HOUR. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WSR-88D WIND PROFILES SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED BELOW 1800 FEET OR SO. AS SUCH...WIND GUSTS IN MOST
SPOTS PEAKED IN THE 30-38 KT RANGE...FAR BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND WE GET EVEN FARTHER FROM PEAK
HEATING...IT WOULD STAND TO REASON THAT THE STRONGEST FLOW FROM THE DYING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL OFF THE DECK.
NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY ENVELOPING THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AS TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY DIVING INTO THE 60S IN
OHIO
Current 850mb temps.. A lot of times you can see or get an idea where the front is by where the cooler edge of the trough is... Single digits entering Kentucky and Pittsburgh. That's when you start to see and feel the temp difference.
In the 50s already in Indiana and Illinois.
Pittsburgh 81F to 63F in last couple hours.
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