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Old 11-16-2015, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
5,706 posts, read 3,779,714 times
Reputation: 1417

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Just looked at the models for early next week...hmm...not sure what to make of it. GFS calling for more maritime bull**** like this weekend (which produced highs in the upper 70's and lows in the lower 70's). However even though winds are NNE (off the ocean) 925mb uppers drop to around 13C while uppers this week were around 19C. I wonder if that correlates to daytime temps in the 60's. If it indeed does then I welcome this pattern with open arms. If not then I'll be really pissed as it just will mean more humid upper 70's with stratoform and drizzle. Cambium, any ideas?
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Old 11-16-2015, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
5,039 posts, read 4,358,928 times
Reputation: 1287
Multiple tornado reports across Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.

Currently there is a warning for a confirmed large tornado moving toward the Dodge City, KS area.

NWS Dodge City

* AT 641 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTEZUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THE HAGGARD ELEV AROUND 650 PM CST.
ENSIGN AROUND 700 PM CST.
HOWELL AROUND 710 PM CST.
DODGE CITY AROUND 715 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
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Old 11-16-2015, 06:59 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,235,718 times
Reputation: 6959
This is quite the alert map.



Seattle:

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE OLYMPICS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD TO
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH. TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER BULLSEYES.

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

* WIND...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EXCEPT NEAR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WHERE THE
STORNG WINDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

____________________________

North Dakota:

...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

.VERY HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND
OUTDOOR WORKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.

WINDS...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE
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Old 11-16-2015, 07:01 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,235,718 times
Reputation: 6959
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAlex View Post
Multiple tornado reports across Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.

Currently there is a warning for a confirmed large tornado moving toward the Dodge City, KS area.

NWS Dodge City

* AT 641 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTEZUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THE HAGGARD ELEV AROUND 650 PM CST.
ENSIGN AROUND 700 PM CST.
HOWELL AROUND 710 PM CST.
DODGE CITY AROUND 715 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
Sheesh. Meanwhile just to the west there's blizzard warnings:

...DANGEROUS BLIZZARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
...TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED AND MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...
...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...

.A VERY STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT AND
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE PLAINS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 76 TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. THE BLIZZARD WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EAST TOWARDS LIMON AND
AKRON. IN THESE AREAS ROAD CLOSURES ARE LIKELY DUE TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND DRIFTING OF HEAVY SNOW. SOME PLACES WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH.
IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 76 SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL LIKELY PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18
INCHES
...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST DENVER SUBURBS
TOWARD DEER TRAIL AND LIMON.

* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH
BY LATE EVENING. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
EAST SIDE OF DENVER WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN RURAL AREAS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES DURING THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AND STRONG WINDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
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Old 11-16-2015, 07:29 PM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
12,278 posts, read 9,463,859 times
Reputation: 2763
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAlex View Post
Multiple tornado reports across Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.

Currently there is a warning for a confirmed large tornado moving toward the Dodge City, KS area.

NWS Dodge City

* AT 641 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTEZUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.
No longer tornadic. Here's the radar from Kansas as far back as it goes (7:20 CST):

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Old 11-16-2015, 08:55 PM
 
Location: New York
11,326 posts, read 20,346,450 times
Reputation: 6231
I don't get why mobile homes even exist in the plains.
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Old 11-16-2015, 11:24 PM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,191 posts, read 11,377,564 times
Reputation: 3530
Forecast for tomorrow is 85/78. Utterly disgusting for this time of year. At least some rain and wind, I guess. I'm ready for some cool and dry weather though. Doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon.
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Old 11-17-2015, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
5,039 posts, read 4,358,928 times
Reputation: 1287
Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92 View Post
I don't get why mobile homes even exist in the plains.
I guess people who live in mobile homes in the plains often have a storm shelter.
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Old 11-17-2015, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
5,039 posts, read 4,358,928 times
Reputation: 1287
Warm and very humid this morning with some gusty winds. Dewpoint of 71F and the temp stayed in the low 70's last night. It even warmed slightly overnight.

I'm in the "enhanced" risk of severe today with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible later this afternoon.
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Old 11-17-2015, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Michaux State Forest
1,275 posts, read 3,417,857 times
Reputation: 1441
Ok, what is it going to look like for the Northeastern U.S. for Thanksgiving? I love the cold weather and so far our temps in PA have been much warmer than usual, I am dying for some cold and snow. Yesterday I heard the U.S. model was predicting a ridge in the west then bringing cold to the Northeast around Thanksgiving however the European model was showing the opposite with continued warmth for the eastern U.S.. Anybody???
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