Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (Pennsylvania, snow, record, temperatures)

[Cambium]

Its trending towards a pattern to support it.

Ridge over Gulf of Alaska = Eastern U.S trough. Wheres that blob when I need it!!

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...22631327690752

[BullochResident]

Will I drop below 40 F?
Will St Simons drop below 50 F?
Will Orlando drop below 60 F?

We'll find out tomorrow morning around 6-7 AM.

[BullochResident]

NOAA/NWS is calling for patchy frost Saturday night, but I doubt it's going to be cold enough. Forecast low is 36 F.

[ral31]

Pretty nice today. Currently 63F and partly sunny. Forecast high is 64F.

Highs remain in the 60's this weekend and lows in the 40's. Warming up early next week as a storm system comes. Heavy rains and a severe threat next Tuesday.

MOISTENING AND WARMING SOUTHERLIES RETURN FOR THE NEW WORK-WEEK AS
COOL LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATTER FEATURE
SPAWNED BY MID/UPPER TROF ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY.
ORIENTATION OF STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DEEP
TROPICAL PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE EXCEEDS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM.
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A
50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND
SOUTHEAST QUAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET EDGES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

[ral31]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

NOAA/NWS is calling for patchy frost Saturday night, but I doubt it's going to be cold enough. Forecast low is 36 F.

NWS can issue frost advisories even when it's as warm as 36F. The ground temperature might be cooler than the official measurement which is made 6 feet above the ground.

[Zephanoa]

Happy Friday!!!!

Keep seeing posts about possible severe weather next week from everyone but NOAA. Interesting.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0222 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

High pressure will remain in place to start the weekend though it
will start to slide to the east in response to a vigorous upper
level system that will approach the west coast. This will allow
for a nice start to the weekend as highs climb into the lower 60s.

A change in the weather pattern will begin through the day Sunday
however. The upper level pattern will begin to shift the upper
level ridge east and develop southwesterly flow aloft. This will
allow moisture from the Pacific to make its way into the southern
plains and the Ozarks heading into Sunday night. As the upper
level trough deepens and digs into the southwestern CONUS,
southerly flow on the western edge of the surface high pressure
will allow Gulf moisture to begin to lift north as well.

This combination and the strength of the upper level storm system
will bring a period of showers and scattered storms to the region
from late Sunday night/early Monday morning through the middle of
next week. The primary concern however will be the amount of
moisture and the duration of the rain expected as instability
looks to be limited. Models have begun to show a potential period
of heavy rainfall through the Monday through Wednesday period.

Will continue to monitor the model trends through the next few
days but the start of next week looks rather wet.

[ral31]

Originally Posted by Zephanoa

Happy Friday!!!!

Keep seeing posts about possible severe weather next week from everyone but NOAA. Interesting.

Right now NOAA is showing the severe risk most probable over Oklahoma/Texas on Monday and eastern Texas/Louisiana on Tuesday.

...DISCUSSION...
LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH AND ITS EWD PROGRESSION INTO THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL DIG INTO THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY DAY4 THEN ROTATE
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DAY5. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...SLY LLJ
WILL INCREASE ACROSS TX/OK AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-40.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ADVANCES INTO THIS REGION.

[Zephanoa]

Originally Posted by RAlex

Right now NOAA is showing the severe risk most probable over Oklahoma/Texas on Monday and eastern Texas/Louisiana on Tuesday.

You're right, I saw that on the SPC page. I am wishing it would seep to the north more. I could use an extended freeze, snow, or at least some Thunder.

This year hasn't been so exciting in these parts for weather phenomena.

Here is the AccuWeather assessment of that system.

[Wildcat15]

Definitely feels colder with the winds. Still gusting to 25mph+.

[Cambium]

My sister just called me from Southeast of Buffalo. Says its all white on the ground there. heavy snow. Checked map.. wow! Lake Effect snows.

Strong West wind off Lake Erie and -4C at 850mb. Surface wind chill of 24°.

NWS Buffalo says the -4C is not enough to have snow fall near the Lakes but just inland it's snow.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
504 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND -4C ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...BUT JUST INLAND THE SNOW HAS STARTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
STEADY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
SHORTWAVE. THE BAND SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME DISORGANIZED
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM...BUT UNTIL THEN LOCALIZED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND GRASSY SURFACES. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
WAVES OF HEAVIER SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR VERY
SLICK CONDITIONS. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.