El Niño is essentially a big hype over nothing (hot, records)
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We've had one smaller snowstorm so far this winter and many rain storms. This never happens in Minneapolis in mid to late December (I plow snow and could tell you everytime it's snowed in the last 10+ years) We've also only had about 3 or 4 days in December where the high temp was below 32. We're also going to be setting an all time record for latest ice over on the Twin Cities area lakes and it is not gonna be happening anytime soon. All the massive outdoor lake hockey tourneys, festivals have to be worried now. My current business is gonna be starting to feel the pain of this El Niño.
I'd rather not be so sure of myself so early in the season. I've said it many times before, but IT'S NOT EVEN WINTER YET. Sure, this fall has been noticeably drier than past El Nino years, but again, it is still too early to pass judgement on it's effects once all is said and done. I don't put too much faith in the long range outlooks that NWS puts out either, however I don't believe they are meant to be more than just averages based on current conditions compared to past patterns. The atmosphere is much more complicated than that and who knows, the slightest variable with this years Nino compared to past ones could mean huge differences in when, if, or where precip. falls on the West Coast.
The PNW is definitely getting pounded this fall, but there isn't a strong correlation with below average precip in that region during an El Nino Fall. More of a winter pattern from January on.
From what I've noticed, typical El Nino years in SoCal mean a dry fall, wet from November or so until December, then a lull in January. From February on it seems like the wet season just goes on an on, sometimes leading to storms in May/June. It's happened before.
I'm fully aware of what El Niño is, and I'm not saying there isn't a strong El Niño in place right now. The point of this thread is to bring to light how much of a hype the NWS and the media are making over the EFFECTS of El Niño. Practically all year long, the so called experts have been squawking about how wet of a winter it will be in the southern tier of states, particularly in southern CA and the SW. Well, look around: all the precipitation has been going north to the Pacific NW ... a region which was predicted to have near to below normal precipitation this season. The effects so far have been a big hype over nothing!
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I'm beginning to think the same way. If that's the case, then why has the NWS been so confident about an above average rainy season this winter in CA & the SW? As it stands now, I have ZERO confidence in the National Blather Service! Quite frankly, I think the NWS should be defunded. The only thing they can do pretty well is keep records, but they are seldom correct about long range outlooks, or even 7 to 10 day outlooks (especially regarding storms & precipitation).
Jeez, it's only December! Repost your rant in March.
And yes, it's been extremely wet in the PNW and dry in the SW, but there are still three rainy months left in California, so it's a bit early to proclaime the long-term forecast a complete bust.
I'd rather not be so sure of myself so early in the season. I've said it many times before, but IT'S NOT EVEN WINTER YET. Sure, this fall has been noticeably drier than past El Nino years, but again, it is still too early to pass judgement on it's effects once all is said and done. I don't put too much faith in the long range outlooks that NWS puts out either, however I don't believe they are meant to be more than just averages based on current conditions compared to past patterns. The atmosphere is much more complicated than that and who knows, the slightest variable with this years Nino compared to past ones could mean huge differences in when, if, or where precip. falls on the West Coast.
It will officially be winter in two days, and the forecast is still very sketchy for any kind of significant storm systems in our region in the near future. I have kept up with historical weather data, and based on past El Niño events, we would have seen the effects of a strong El Niño by now in the form of increased frequency of storm systems (particularly along the subtropical jetstream). Do you know why this weather phenomenon was named El Niño? It's Spanish for "the child", specifically the Christ child ... and it was named as such because the effects from this warm Pacific current are first noticeable in December, which is the time when the Christ child was supposedly born.
I am pretty confident of what's going to happen in the January through March/April timeframe: CA and the SW will receive precipitation, and everybody will be hyped up & claiming this is all the result of the all mighty, super powerful El Niño ... when in reality, it will simply be the result of NORMAL WINTER STORM SYSTEMS.
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Originally Posted by NativeOrange
From what I've noticed, typical El Nino years in SoCal mean a dry fall, wet from November or so until December, then a lull in January. From February on it seems like the wet season just goes on an on, sometimes leading to storms in May/June. It's happened before.
Yeah, well we'll see what happens. All I know is I distinctly remember the last "strong El Niño" that came about in 1997-1998. The NWS and the media were all hyped up about that one too, claiming that CA & AZ would have an abundance of rain & snow that winter. We were even advised to buy sandbags for the strong chances of widespread flooding. Here in AZ, the season turned out to be only slightly above normal with the majority of the precipitation occurring in February/early March, but no widespread flooding occurred. Overall, it wasn't a big deal like they said it would be.
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Originally Posted by ProtoStrata
Jeez, it's only December! Repost your rant in March.
And yes, it's been extremely wet in the PNW and dry in the SW, but there are still three rainy months left in California, so it's a bit early to proclaime the long-term forecast a complete bust.
I'm basing my opinion partly on what happened last year. The weather experts were predicting that last winter would have more rain & snow than normal across CA & the SW because of El Niño. HA! It was yet another dry winter (and much warmer than normal). It might be a bit too early to call it a complete bust, but I'm going by how the NWS makes all these wild predictions in their long range outlooks, and they turn out to be inaccurate the majority of the time. So far, the predictions for a wet December here in the SW have been way way way off!
El Nino is great for us in Alberta, Canada. The warm air keeps the snow and cold away. We have freezing rain instead of heavy snowfall. And lots of sunshiny days.
It is also great for New England. We are getting a fair amount of rainfall with mild temperatures. Love it when the jet stream stays north and keeps the arctic air in the arctic where it belongs.
It is also great for New England. We are getting a fair amount of rainfall with mild temperatures. Love it when the jet streams stays north and keeps the arctic air in the arctic where it belongs.
Why do people say Arctic air belongs in the Arctic, when for as long as forever Arctic air has come down well south into North America. It always has, and it always will. It is just the freak nature of winter in North America.
The joke is the two professions where you can be wrong most of the time and not lose your job are the weather and psychology
Very true, and that applies to practically any kind of government funded job. The bozos at the NWS supposedly use the latest technology to make their long range outlooks ... but in reality, it's the same effect as sticking their wet fingers in the wind. They can make any kind of predictions, be completely wrong, and still keep their jobs. If & when they're criticized for their inaccuracy, they often make all the lame excuses in the book. What they won't do, however, is admit to screwing up.
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Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer
I'm sick of the rainy days already. It's been way more wet then other recent years.
You live in a drought stricken area with mandatory water restrictions, and you're griping about rainy days??? It really hasn't been all that rainy in southern CA lately (at least not what we would expect from such a strong El Niño), and most locations are well behind on annual precipitation. If I lived anywhere in southern CA, I'd be outside doing rain dances instead of bellyaching about a little rain.
Practically all year, we have heard about the super strong El Niño developing in the Pacific, and how it will impact weather across the globe. The biggest hype has been how most of California (especially the southern half) and the Southwest U.S. will have a wet, stormy winter, and it would benefit the drought stricken region significantly. According to the NWS, the effects from this powerful El Niño would begin in November, and be especially noticeable in December through March. At the very least, according to all the weather experts, this region has an almost certain probability of above normal precipitation from November through March.
That's not what I read; I read the effects of El Niño wouldn't felt in California till mid to late December, and be strongest January and later.
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Yeah, well we'll see what happens. All I know is I distinctly remember the last "strong El Niño" that came about in 1997-1998. The NWS and the media were all hyped up about that one too, claiming that CA & AZ would have an abundance of rain & snow that winter.
They were right; it was among the wettest winters in California
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