El Niño is essentially a big hype over nothing (temperatures, rainfall)
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Good point. But the "cold phase" is not based on previous patterns that can be accurately assigned to this particular low sun activity cycle - still conjecture. According to what has been actually put down on record, it is thought that the (almost absent) solar activity during what should have been a maximum could lead to a cool down. But the data is incomplete. I wouldn't just yet buy a ton of stock in 3M. Let's look out 10 to 20 years and see what happens. There just isn't enough reliable data on what brought on the little ice age. And in the meantime, weather has been quite variable in spite of solar activity or the wobble of Earth's polar axes. I see no consistent relation to these things so far.
Obviously each weather year is different. ENSO (El Niño and La Niña cycles) are only one element of sensible weather. Others involve North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as the position of the polar vortex.
Some of these can come together in almost random fashion to produce anomalous results. For example the winter of 2010-11 was cold and snowy in the Northeast despite a strong La Niña and negative or neutral PDO. The last time that happened was during Jefferson's presidency. Also, El Niño summers are generally rainy and cool in the Northeast. This past summer, as well as 1987 were decided exceptions to that rule. Even 1969, which was generally rainy and cool featured a few notable heat waves, including some with record-setting temperatures. Some of those records were tied (though not exceeded) in 1991. The point is that El Niño is not blather; its effects are not predictable.
OP, you need to come up here to Washington state if you think there's no El Niño. We've just had 5 large storms in a row and another is due in today, although Portland, OR, will get the brunt of this one.
I never said there wasn't an El Niño presently, but the effects from it are overly exaggerated. A typical El Niño delivers less precipitation to the Pacific NW, and more moisture laden storm systems to California & the SW. The exact opposite has occurred thus far, so you basically proved my point about how the so called meteorological experts have been wrong about their predictions thus far.
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Originally Posted by DCMann2
El Nino is most certainly having an effect on weather all across the globe. Just because it's not raining in the desert SW yet doesn't mean it's a total bust. The NWS have mentioned more than once that the rain isn't really supposed to kick into gear in the SW until after the new year and last through March and into April, and their predictions of warmer temperatures from the west coast through New England are clearly accurate, as are the predictions of wetter weather across the Deep South.
Oh sure, after seeing how wrong they've been so far, the NWS has recently pushed back their predictions of heavy storms hitting CA & the SW to begin in January. During the summer & fall, they said that there was a good possibility they'd begin in November, and most certainly in December. Note the map below:
And if that isn't proof enough for you, the caption below that map stated the following:
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Shaded areas indicate regions where NOAA believes there is a greater-than-average chance that the total precipitation from Dec. 1, 2015, through Feb. 29, 2016, will rank among the upper or lower one-third of all winters in the 1981-2010 climatological reference period.
I hope I'm wrong about what I've said about the effects of El Niño because California and the SW desperately need the increased moisture. I'm wondering, however, what excuses the NWS will come up with if January ends up being average or below average in precipitation throughout this region.
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Originally Posted by DCMann2
Calling them the "national blather service" shows a lack of maturity, and calling for them to be defunded only reinforces that lack of maturity. Models are only tools that help give us a picture of what situation is more or less likely to happen, and no model is 100% accurate. Even if the NWS show a 99% chance of something happening there's still a 1% chance that it won't. It would behoove you to understand that.
Accusing somebody of having a lack of maturity is not very mature on your part. Pardon me if I'm concerned about the drought & the water situation throughout the SW region. And pardon me if I'm expecting accuracy from so called weather professionals when they sound highly confident about a wet winter in this region, and even go as far to warn people about the heavy storms that will most definitely batter the coast this season. When they give a high probability of weather events occurring, we should expect them to be as accurate as possible. Unfortunately, they have been inaccurate quite a few times in their long range models. It may not be a complete bust yet, but it is very discouraging so far.
Maybe I can put it another way: suppose your company gave a high probability of everybody getting pay raises, but the end result was nobody received any raises. The CEOs could hang on to the claim that they didn't give a 100% probability it would happen ... however, they still sounded promising at first, and got people's hopes up, but they ended up letting everybody down. I'd say that you and everybody else would feel extremely disappointed & perhaps even angry ... and who could blame you? Same thing could be applied to the NWS. They have raised people's hopes for a very wet winter across CA & the SW which would provide drought relief. So far, the bulk of the Pacific moisture has gone northward, and short range models indicate more of the same will occur in the immediate future.
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Originally Posted by carnivalday
I need to stop being surprised how dumb people can be. Just because a weather event isnt affecting YOU in your backyard, doesnt mean its not affecting others. As was said, El Nino isnt a storm. It is most definitely affecting weather across the globe right now.
First of all, calling people "dumb" doesn't show much intelligence on your part. Second of all, shouldn't we expect the "experts" to be correct more often than not, especially when they make such a big deal about how strong & frequent the storm systems are supposed to along the west coast & the SW region??? It seems like the only thing the NWS can be correct about here in the SW is "mostly sunny & dry". When it comes to long range outlooks, storm systems, and precipitation predictions, they are often way off base. This is why I'm calling for them to be defunded. Seems like a waste of taxpayers' money to fund a bureaucracy that doesn't have a very accurate forecast record.
Well, if you're concerned about the drought, then you might find it to be good news that the Sierra is now at 112% of normal snowpack thus far, with another storm coming through this week.
I don't get it why some people go completely berserk if a forecast doesn't come to fruitition. After all the meteorologists are predicting the future. I repeat. They. Are. Predicting. The. Future. Do you go nuts if a fortune cookie's or a Gypsy card reader's predictions are incorrect? No, because we all know it is impossible to know exactly what the future brings. It's always speculating, guessing and hoping. The weather forecasters are not superhumans who can travel forward in time, otherwise the NWS would've predicted smog in NYC on 11 September 2001. Weather, especially precipitation, is extremely difficult to predict outside the tropics or in areas with extremely regular monsoonal patterns. How good the meterologists and the computer models might be - it's just impossible to know for sure.
Write down in detail your next week's schedule and predictions what will happen. If you don't get a single surprise or unexpected event, you're either lucky or a genious. You can only guess and make rough predictions, but you don't get it 100% right. Exactly what the weather forecasters are doing. Cut them some slack.
His comment that the forecaster were predicting a wet fall for California isn't even true. The seasonal forecasts were generally forecasting a dry-ish fall.
It’s worth noting that seasonal forecasts have strongly hinted at precisely this evolution for many months now–showing a dry autumn, and equivocal December, and subsequently a very wet January-March period for all of California. Right now, model solutions for the first 2 weeks in January are converging on just such an outcome.
I've been a little skeptical for my own reasons, mainly just the fact that we can never rely on correlations, even strong ones, to accurately predict what an entire season will bring. I've noticed some longer range models showing more of a southerly storm track into early/mid January. Time will tell if that holds true.
Either way, here in SoCal, it was a nice surprise with the storm on Monday/Tuesday. Forecast called for 0.10-0.30 in., but what we got instead was about 24 hours of light rain which resulted in 0.50-1.00 in. readings across the region.
I don't get it why some people go completely berserk if a forecast doesn't come to fruitition. After all the meteorologists are predicting the future. I repeat. They. Are. Predicting. The. Future. Do you go nuts if a fortune cookie's or a Gypsy card reader's predictions are incorrect? No, because we all know it is impossible to know exactly what the future brings. It's always speculating, guessing and hoping.
So basically, you're comparing the forecasts from NOAA/NWS to a fortune cookie or a gypsy fortune teller??? There's a huge difference in that the NWS is supposed to be a reliable outfit comprised of people who are meteorological experts, and they supposedly use state of the art technology for their forecasts. Also, the NWS is funded by government money (our tax dollars), whereas fortune tellers are not. Having said all that, I would expect the NWS to be a hell of a lot more accurate than some phony psychic card reader!
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Originally Posted by Ariete
Write down in detail your next week's schedule and predictions what will happen. If you don't get a single surprise or unexpected event, you're either lucky or a genious. You can only guess and make rough predictions, but you don't get it 100% right. Exactly what the weather forecasters are doing. Cut them some slack.
Your comparisons are senseless, and I don't think you understand the seriousness of what's being discussed here. I didn't start this thread for the sole purpose of saying that all NWS meteorologists are a bunch of incompetent idiots. I'm highly concerned about the drought which has plagued California and much of the western/southwestern U.S.
When the weather experts go on national TV & websites and state with high confidence that CA & the SW will have a very wet winter, they are raising people's expectations that drought relief is on the way. Personally, I hardly ever believe what the so called weather experts say because they don't have a very high accuracy rate ... however, so far they have been letting down a lot of Californians who actually believed what they were saying. I hope for everybody's sake that I'm wrong, and that heavy moisture rich Pacific storms are on their way in January through March/April/May, but I have strong doubts.
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Originally Posted by nei
It’s worth noting that seasonal forecasts have strongly hinted at precisely this evolution for many months now–showing a dry autumn, and equivocal December, and subsequently a very wet January-March period for all of California. Right now, model solutions for the first 2 weeks in January are converging on just such an outcome.
The caption says the total from Dec 1 to Feb 28 — you don't know the total yet.
Yep, another web blog stating with a great deal of confidence that we're still in store for a very wet winter. Yeah right, we'll see about that. I'm only HOPING they're correct and that I'm dead wrong about this El Niño, but there's no evidence so far of any major changes happening. Oh, and just for the record, CA and the SW will need to be hammered with a lot of record setting precipitation totals in the next two months to even come close to being on track what the NWS predicted for the December 1st through February 28th timeframe.
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Originally Posted by NativeOrange
^Very reassuring article nei. Thanks.
I've been a little skeptical for my own reasons, mainly just the fact that we can never rely on correlations, even strong ones, to accurately predict what an entire season will bring. I've noticed some longer range models showing more of a southerly storm track into early/mid January. Time will tell if that holds true.
Either way, here in SoCal, it was a nice surprise with the storm on Monday/Tuesday. Forecast called for 0.10-0.30 in., but what we got instead was about 24 hours of light rain which resulted in 0.50-1.00 in. readings across the region.
While it's very possible that more precipitation will occur in January, keep in mind that it's only a normal weather pattern for this to happen, and has very little or nothing to do with the effects from El Niño. Based on how much ridiculous hype this super powerful El Niño has gotten in the news media, I wouldn't be surprised if El Niño is credited (or blamed) every time it does rain during the rest of the winter season.
Again, precipitation is NORMAL this time of year (December through March) in southern CA & AZ. Quite honestly, I'm really only expecting the normal seasonal rains, and nothing too major attributed to this all mighty El Niño. I don't trust the NWS and their long range outlooks. Remember, this is the same outfit which predicted a wet winter last year for our region, and it was yet another dry one.
This was their precipitation outlook for last winter:
Well those are probabilities, not high certainties... a 24% chance of below normal wasn't that unlikely. And that's what came. Even this season, the chance above average is 50-60% for central California.
So basically, you're comparing the forecasts from NOAA/NWS to a fortune cookie or a gypsy fortune teller??? There's a huge difference in that the NWS is supposed to be a reliable outfit comprised of people who are meteorological experts, and they supposedly use state of the art technology for their forecasts. Also, the NWS is funded by government money (our tax dollars), whereas fortune tellers are not. Having said all that, I would expect the NWS to be a hell of a lot more accurate than some phony psychic card reader!
Your comparisons are senseless, and I don't think you understand the seriousness of what's being discussed here. I didn't start this thread for the sole purpose of saying that all NWS meteorologists are a bunch of incompetent idiots. I'm highly concerned about the drought which has plagued California and much of the western/southwestern U.S.
When the weather experts go on national TV & websites and state with high confidence that CA & the SW will have a very wet winter, they are raising people's expectations that drought relief is on the way. Personally, I hardly ever believe what the so called weather experts say because they don't have a very high accuracy rate ... however, so far they have been letting down a lot of Californians who actually believed what they were saying. I hope for everybody's sake that I'm wrong, and that heavy moisture rich Pacific storms are on their way in January through March/April/May, but I have strong doubts.
Yep, another web blog stating with a great deal of confidence that we're still in store for a very wet winter. Yeah right, we'll see about that. I'm only HOPING they're correct and that I'm dead wrong about this El Niño, but there's no evidence so far of any major changes happening. Oh, and just for the record, CA and the SW will need to be hammered with a lot of record setting precipitation totals in the next two months to even come close to being on track what the NWS predicted for the December 1st through February 28th timeframe.
While it's very possible that more precipitation will occur in January, keep in mind that it's only a normal weather pattern for this to happen, and has very little or nothing to do with the effects from El Niño. Based on how much ridiculous hype this super powerful El Niño has gotten in the news media, I wouldn't be surprised if El Niño is credited (or blamed) every time it does rain during the rest of the winter season.
Again, precipitation is NORMAL this time of year (December through March) in southern CA & AZ. Quite honestly, I'm really only expecting the normal seasonal rains, and nothing too major attributed to this all mighty El Niño. I don't trust the NWS and their long range outlooks. Remember, this is the same outfit which predicted a wet winter last year for our region, and it was yet another dry one.
This was their precipitation outlook for last winter:
Well, even normal would be a welcome relief from the last few years. Either way, the southwest is not the place you want rain to be falling if you want to put a major dent in the drought. NorCal is where the reservoirs are, where the snowmelt goes, etc.
If you've been paying attention, much of NorCal is now above normal for this time of year, and that happened after 1 strong storm. That's how variable it can be here in CA, you could be below normal by the end of January, and one good storm can put you right back in the positive. That's why worrying about how close to normal we are, this early in the season is pointless.
Also, if you read nei's blog post, he clearly states that the storm track has been slowly shifting southward, first aiming at the PacNW in early fall, now closer to aiming storms at southern Oregon/Northern California. It doesn't really matter whether they are classic El Niño storms that come in from due west yet, because the ocean even in the North Pacific is warm and sea levels are high. Gulf of Alaska storms can still tap that ample moisture.
I don't understand people who complain about hype. That just shows that you put too much faith into popular opinion and were disappointed. It makes this whole thread just seem like an excuse to vent or bash the media/NWS/etc.
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