Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
That's a good and valid question. It's doubtful that NOAA would get much praise when their long range outlooks turn out to be correct. After all, that's their job, isn't it? Why should anybody get special honor and recognition simply for doing their jobs? Do you or I receive praise and special awards just for showing up for work and performing our jobs? Our "praise" and "rewards" are a regular paycheck, benefits, and job security, and that should be good enough.
In the case of NOAA, they continue to receive government funding regardless if their forecasts are accurate or not. The difference is: if we make serious mistakes on our jobs (continuously), our butts would be kicked right out the door in most cases. The fine folks at NOAA still have their government funded jobs no matter what ... and worse yet, won't be held accountable.
They are forecasting the weather, not setting it in stone, simple prognostication. They cannot guarantee where or how much weather we get, but they are nearly always right on the ten day forecast, even up to two weeks. Most of our jobs are based on our productivity, theirs is upon their forecasting the weather. How can you hold them accountable for the weather , you think they have some sort of control over it? See the difference? You and I and many others have control over our jobs and its output. Forecasting the weather does not mean they should be responsible for it not happening, they do not have control over the weather.
Why do you keep focusing on long range outlooks as if that is the sole purpose of NOAA?
Maybe you should stick to the short term discussions (7-10 day outlooks). They are always at least 90% accurate.
It depends on what you define as "accurate". I read the forecast discussions on a regular basis, and in doing so, I have come to the conclusion that they are indeed highly accurate when it comes to "sunny, warm, and dry" type of forecasts in our region ... however, when it comes to approaching storm systems & precipitation, that's when they often fall short on accuracy. Here are a few examples from the Phoenix NOAA page last month.
February 8th:
Quote:
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. RAIN IS IN
THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE BEYOND THIS
7 DAY FORECAST.
February 10th:
Quote:
PERHAPS A GLIMMER OF HOPE STILL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...GFS/PARA-GFS/NAEFS ARE STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST SOME RAIN
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST.
None of the above came to fruition. February actually turned out to be the driest on record at Phoenix Sky Harbor, with a precipitation total of a whopping 0.00. March is turning out to be the same way thus far. This is why the NOAA offices in CA and the SW really should eliminate all long & short range outlooks, and replace them with a permanent forecast stating: SUNNY, WARM, AND DRY FOR ETERNITY. In that case, they would be accurate at least 90% of the time.
It depends on what you define as "accurate". I read the forecast discussions on a regular basis, and in doing so, I have come to the conclusion that they are indeed highly accurate when it comes to "sunny, warm, and dry" type of forecasts in our region ... however, when it comes to approaching storm systems & precipitation, that's when they often fall short on accuracy. Here are a few examples from the Phoenix NOAA page last month.
February 8th:
February 10th:
None of the above came to fruition. February actually turned out to be the driest on record at Phoenix Sky Harbor, with a precipitation total of a whopping 0.00. March is turning out to be the same way thus far. This is why the NOAA offices in CA and the SW really should eliminate all long & short range outlooks, and replace them with a permanent forecast stating: SUNNY, WARM, AND DRY FOR ETERNITY. In that case, they would be accurate at least 90% of the time.
Well, to begin with the storm track went far north of where it was predicted to pass over the west coast, instead of centalizing over Central California down to L A, it ventured so far north that us up here in the Humboldt area were mostly on its southern edge. They had thought that the storm track that was set up for El Niño was going to leave us on its north side. Arizona lost out on this El Niño this time. There is no guarantee that storms will do as predicted. In the long range, it had looked like you all were set up, including Los Angeles, can you really fault and blame NOOA for it not coming through as you expect their predictions to? Blame El Niño, blame climate change, blame that Blob that was sitting over the north Pacific, but how can you blame people for the weather? El Niño happened, it just did not happen over you.
Last year the snow pack was barely 20% of normal, this year it is surely well above 100% by now, many of the reservoirs are filled up by the spring and summer snow melt, not by rain. The best comparison is Lake Shasta in December of 2015 till now, it went from 29% to 73%, Trinity was 19% and is now at 41%, Folsom went from record lows to now having to have the flood gates kept open to avoid overfilling it and not having the capacity for flooding events. Statewide our snow pack is at 79% of normal, for April 1st, and this is March 11th with 20 more days to go. Comparing last year to this year is like comparing a donut hole to the donut., without the frosting.
But National Weather Service Meteorologist Alex Tardy urges Southern Californians to be patient. March and April are likely to be unusually wet.
“El Niño has definitely not gone,” he said in a video last week. The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is very warm and temperature differences increased again last week.
“Some of our wettest months are February and March,” he stressed. “March can be a very wet month. Be careful about prematurely giving up.”
On the other hand, a more recent report from a Phoenix news station pretty much says the opposite:
The latest El Nino update released from NOAA Thursday morning brings some bad news to a drought stricken southwestern United States.
“El Nino is on its way out," said Paul Inguez, the Science and Operations Office at the Phoenix National Weather Service.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
, you think they have some sort of control over it? See the difference? You and I and many others have control over our jobs and its output. Forecasting the weather does not mean they should be responsible for it not happening, they do not have control over the weather.
