Why do TV Weathercasters not admit when they blew the forecast? (hot, warm)
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The Weathercasters on television get it wrong often but after the forecast turns out wrong they never tell us what happened. They never say "I was wrong" or even formally aplogize. Why can't they be honest with their viewers?
Because they are predicting the future, and those can never be 100% correct. And if you are forecasting Sunday's weather on Wednesday, there's many days possible for things to change.
Outside the tropics convective rain is almost impossible to forecast more than maybe 6-12 hours ahead.
You have to take all forecasts with caution, just like all predictions about the future.
Yep a forecast is only a "best guess" there are so many variables to take into account & some areas have far more unpredictable weather, so I don't think they should have to apologise if they don't get it right all the time...
For example here in Malta summer is easy enough to forecast as it's hot & sunny just about every day as the weather patterns here are very stable during the summer, on the other hand in the UK it is anything but stable during any time of the year... Also as Malta is so small it is very difficult to accurately forecast rain as a slight movement can see it miss us completely...
Because they are predicting the future, and those can never be 100% correct. And if you are forecasting Sunday's weather on Wednesday, there's many days possible for things to change.
Outside the tropics convective rain is almost impossible to forecast more than maybe 6-12 hours ahead.
You have to take all forecasts with caution, just like all predictions about the future.
But they talk with so much confidence when they go on the air and announce to a million people watching that Saturday and Sunday is going to be sunny and 70 degrees. Then when it is rainy and 50 degrees and just plain miserable, there is no discussion about how they could be so wrong. They say- IT IS GOING TO BE 70 DEGREES AND SUNNY. What they should say instead is: "OUR BEST GUESS FROM OUR COMPUTER MODELS IS IT IS GOING TO BE WARM AND SUNNY."
Don't want to start a war here but I don't think that the forecasts are any more accurate today than they were 60 years ago when there was less weather "technology."
As to the OP's original point, failing to acknowledge the incorrect forecasts is one thing, but there was a weather man on local station for many years who was very arrogant with his predictions, smug the following day when he nailed it, but silent when he missed.
They say- IT IS GOING TO BE 70 DEGREES AND SUNNY. What they should say instead is: "OUR BEST GUESS FROM OUR COMPUTER MODELS IS IT IS GOING TO BE WARM AND SUNNY."
You should read it like that. Stock analysts, sports betting experts and others aren't always right either. They assume that you understand it's a guess, as they are just predicting, nobody can know the future with a 100% certainty.
But they talk with so much confidence when they go on the air and announce that Saturday and Sunday is going to be sunny and 70 degrees. Then when it is rainy and 50 degrees and just plain miserable, ."
Exaggerate much? Or are you comparing a forecast you never followed up with a week later?
Atmosphere and storm track change all the time, so things can change within 36hrs but forecasting 70° couple days before then actually being 50° is nothing but an exaggeration.
Temperatures are more known than precip and many times be off a few degrees from actual....
Most of the problem is the public not understanding how to stay on top of forecasts or why its a probability, not a guarantee. You don't have a location so I can't help more..
Stop looking at exacts like "They said 72°, it was 75°", they were wrong. that will always happen. Understand why. Refresh the forecasts every 6-10hrs and you should see the changes.
But if you're talking about no rain vs actually raining then you need to read some discussions which mention the possibility of things changing that it could rain.
Local meteos have a lot to say and most of the time scripted by the network so a lot goes unsaid..
Get on social media ASAP and start looking at the whys, what ifs, and whens.
It's not just weather people...how often do any media go back and "apologize". Unless the error was REALLY blatant and/or caused undue harm to someone, their job is to report the now and the "future", not what they said yesterday.
Read your local discussions. CHANGES ARE MADE EVEN HOURS BEFORE. Stay on top of things rather than saying "they are wrong"
Here's NWS Philly mentioning they adjusted precip amounts, temps, & winds all within hours of actually happening.
In other words.. THE FORECAST CHANGED. Weather & Atmosphere NEVER guarantee things.
but someone who saw a forecast from 2 days ago or even yesterday from a local meteo will say "hey, they were wrong, whats up with them"?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, BRINGING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES, TIMING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AS WELL AS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS.
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