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Discussion: Near 90 for NYC with sun today before the next front passes through. Then............ Once again a NW flow drying things out. Awesome summer!
Rip Currents at the Beaches
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
408 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes this morning moves
across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
.NEAR TERM UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING... A broad upper trough across eastern North America will send a
cold front over the eastern Great Lakes this morning across the
area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Some mid levels clouds will move across the area this morning,
otherwise mostly sunny skies. Highs will generally be 3 to 5 degrees above normal, ranging from the low to mid 80s in the suburbs, to near 90 NYC metro. SW winds will gust up to 25 mph
this afternoon, highest near the coast.
There is a moderate risk of rip current formation at Atlantic
Beaches today into this evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
An early evening shower or thunderstorm will be possible with
the passage of the cold front. NW winds will transport less humid air into the region with dew points falling into the 50s overnight with near or just below seasonable temperatures.
Wow, I'm now under a slight severe risk today. Interesting to see it in Arizona as well.
Quote:
...Louisiana into Alabama...
12Z soundings at SHV, JAN, and BMX indicate ample low-level moisture
with pronounced drying above the PBL that is contributing to large
values of DCAPE greater than 1300 J/kg. Strong heating is occurring
over central parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama to the
south of ongoing convection, with a well-defined outflow boundary
evident in visible imagery moving southward into central Louisiana
and Mississippi. Storms are expected to continue developing and
intensify this afternoon within an environment favorable for wet
microbursts with potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts.
Spoiler
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected from the central Plains to
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States, and across New England.
Localized damaging wind gusts are most likely, with large hail most
probable over the Plains. Isolated storms producing strong-to-severe
wind gusts are possible across southern Arizona as well.
...Extreme eastern New York into New England...
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough lifting northeastward
across the lower Great Lakes toward New England. This feature is
enhancing large-scale ascent with scattered thunderstorms occurring
from northern/eastern New York into western Maine. Visible imagery
shows a corridor of limited clouds from southeast New York into
Massachusetts and southern parts of New Hampshire and Maine which
will promote stronger diabatic heating this afternoon. Although 12Z
soundings exhibit weak mid-level lapse rates across the region,
surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s and steepening low-level
lapse rates will contribute to some destabilization with SBCAPE
reaching 1000-1500 J/kg.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing this afternoon
ahead of an advancing cold front. Moderate westerly flow aloft
coupled with 35-40 kt deep layer shear will support organized storm
structures including potential for short bowing line segments.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing strong-to-severe wind
gusts into the evening hours.
...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...
Strong heating is occurring across this area with surface
temperatures approaching 90 degrees. 12Z sounding at GSO indicated
the moisture over the Piedmont was relatively shallow suggesting
that current surface dew points in the lower 70s over this area may
mix out this afternoon as steep low-level lapse rates develop.
Storms are expected to develop within a weakly capped environment
over the higher terrain and spread eastward along the southern edge
of stronger westerly winds in the mid-levels. Deep layer shear of
20-30 kt will be sufficient to support organized multi-cell storm
structures including short line segments. Stronger storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts through the evening hours.
...Louisiana into Alabama...
12Z soundings at SHV, JAN, and BMX indicate ample low-level moisture
with pronounced drying above the PBL that is contributing to large
values of DCAPE greater than 1300 J/kg. Strong heating is occurring
over central parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama to the
south of ongoing convection, with a well-defined outflow boundary
evident in visible imagery moving southward into central Louisiana
and Mississippi. Storms are expected to continue developing and
intensify this afternoon within an environment favorable for wet
microbursts with potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southern Arizona...
12Z soundings at PHX and TUS exhibit very deep mixed layers with
precipitable water values around 1.2 inches and layers of stronger
easterly component winds in the low-to-mid levels. Intense diabatic
heating will support development of thunderstorms over the mountains
of southeast and east central Arizona this afternoon and evening,
with potential for cells to propagate westward toward the lower
deserts. The deep mixed layer and dry sub-cloud environment will
promote generation of strong-to-severe wind gusts later this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains...
In the presence of moderately strong north/northwesterly flow aloft,
storms appear most likely to develop across parts of Nebraska this
afternoon in vicinity of a surface low and weak front with storms
also potentially spreading into portions of western and central
Kansas. Modest amounts of buoyancy and deep-layer shear could yield
isolated severe storms capable of severe hail and wind mainly late
this afternoon into evening.
..Weiss/Mosier.. 07/08/2017
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