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New Euro is out and here is the snow total from this new update... This storm should be fun to watch!
Ed says it best although I wouldn't say "classic" since it's not coming up the coast. More like 2 storms meeting off the coast and just hanging out. But yeah, Rain, Snow, Wind, Flooding, Gusts, wind swept rain then sideways snow... Should be fun.
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018
By late Thursday, a digging northern stream shortwave/vorticity max
will begin to interact with a southern stream shortwave/vorticity
max. The interaction of these two pieces of energy will occur across the Ohio Valley with a broad low pressure developing at the surface.
Secondary low pressure begins to develop along the Middle Atlantic
Thursday evening helping to enhance warm advection and isentropic
lift across the region. The secondary low begins to intensity early Friday morning south and east of Long Island and will become the dominant low by day break as the upper trough amplifies and closes
off.
As the secondary low intensifies early Friday, easterly winds will
increase with gusts near the coast around 25-30 mph.
Models in the last 24 hours have come into very good agreement with a deepening, nearly stationary low near the benchmark (40N, 70W)
Friday, then tracking it slowly SE Friday night into Saturday. This
will result in a multitude of hazards across the area Friday into
Friday night, including heavy precipitation, high winds, and coastal
flooding.
A shearing out upper low over the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday
phases with northern branch jet energy digging across the Midwest,
eventually closing off an upper low to the west of the area Friday
morning, which then takes a track to the south across the northern
Mid Atlantic States. This results in significant cyclogenesis to the
south and east of Long Island. The low remains nearly stationary
during the day and eventually occludes as it gets wrapped under the
upper low. The system then progresses slowly to the SE Friday into
Saturday.
There look to be multiple bands of heavy precipitation with this event as it transition from isentropic lift to comma head and trowal dynamics. These details at this point in time can be difficult to
resolve, but a moderate to heavy rainfall event across the region is
seeming more likely and have liquid equivalent amounts have been
increased to on average around 2 inches. This coupled with wet
antecedent conditions and a record wet February set the stage for
potential flooding. The most vulnerable area looks to be across NE
NJ, where flood guidance values are lower, and the smaller rivers
and stream are quicker to respond. That being said, due to the
aforementioned conditions and the highly anomalously easterly jet
with this system, rainfall amounts could be higher in upslope area
across the interior. In addition, coastal flooding at the time of
high tide could exacerbate the flooding effect. Thus, a Flood Watch
has been issued for all but Orange county in the Lower Hudson Valley
(due to possible wet snow).
As for any snowfall, the most likely location for any accumulating
snow would be across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, in
particular Orange county, where 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is
forecast. The cold air supply for this event is marginal and is mainly driven by dynamics with deep-layered lift. These type of events with the upper low are always a challenge and the details on the accumulating snow will likely change over the next 24 hours.
Right now, this event looks to fall short of the 6 inches for a
watch. This will still have to be closely watched. Unlike, 24 hours
ago, now that the guidance is more in agreement with the location
and magnitude of the low, they all at some point show a warm
seclusion with warm air wrapping to north of the deepening low and
into the interior. This couple with a warm boundary layer will allow
for rain to start. The question is at what point does the transition
with snow or a mix occur. At this time, it appears to be after
daybreak into the afternoon hours. It`s also not out of the question
to see a period of west snow at the coast Friday evening.
Strong to damaging winds are expected with this storm from Friday
through Friday night, and possibly into Saturday morning over far
eastern portions of the CWA. This is in response to a 60-75 kt 950- 850 hPa jet and steepening low level lapse rates to the NW of the surface/low level low centers. The strongest winds should occur from
late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours Friday night, mainly
over coastal zones. Based on this have issued a high wind watch for
NYC, Long Island, Coastal S CT, Hudson County, E Union and Essex
Counties and S Westchester County from 12z Friday-11z Saturday, for
the potential for wind gusts around 60 mph and a slightly lower
chance for sustained winds of around 40 mph. Elsewhere, wind
advisory conditions are likely Friday-Friday night, with gusts in
the 45-55 mph range and sustained winds 25-35 mph. If confidence
continues to increase, a wind advisory could be issued for all or
part of this area with future forecasts.
Typically a storm will come up the coast. This one is not and that's why its a rain to snow senario. Cold is catching up with the coastal and because you have Atlantic blocking theres time for precip to change over. Question is how much!
NWS predicting 3 tidal cycles at 15ft at Boston Harbor. That is about what the January cyclone did, but this will be over 3 tidal cycles so the coast might get blasted.
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