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While this topic was extremly unpopular, which is an understatement actually, I was checking the 10hPa vortex just now, and compared it to the 2018 pattern, and they are so similar, which was odd enough to make me post about it.
Shows clearly the same pattern from previous years, leading to massive cold for the US
Yes, there are clear similarities. Apparently Dec/Jan 2000 is another analog.
The truly epic and prolonged cold outbreaks are often also associated with a SSW event. Not certain yet that this is going to happen although it can't be ruled out.
December/January 2000, not good. If I remember correctly 99% of the places on my freeze monitoring list had a colder than normal coldest winter temperature, and some places in South Florida even got freak freezes.
On the upside, if that happens it will probably lead to good last freeze monitoring because of using up all the cold air. Following it some places had very good monitoring, like Augusta Daniel Field getting a record early January 26 last freeze.
After far too long looking at the polar vortex and the surface temperatures, it seems there isn't just one pattern that leads to arctic air intruding on our lovely warmer climates.
After far too long looking at the polar vortex and the surface temperatures, it seems there isn't just one pattern that leads to arctic air intruding on our lovely warmer climates.
I call it the low latitude fail effect for many areas of the eastern US. That is why even with warming climate, you can throw those "stable" concrete plant hardiness zones out entirely based on certain arctic air intrusion scenarios.
For a second I didn't understand what you meant by "concrete plant hardiness zones". I'm like, concrete plants are effected by extreme cold? They can't make concrete in the winter?
For a second I didn't understand what you meant by "concrete plant hardiness zones". I'm like, concrete plants are effected by extreme cold? They can't make concrete in the winter?
Plant hardiness zones aren't set in stone, the extreme variability of arctic air intrusions will burn gardeners every 5-10 years if they try growing warmer hardiness trees and plants in a transitional humid continental/humid subtropical area.
I know all about that. Including watching the Florida citrus industry destroyed by an increasing number of impact freezes, until there was no more citrus grown except in south Florida. And watching the coconut palms all die.
Along with every other unprotected tropical tree and plant.
The current stratospheric vortex once again shows how much the upper atmosphere affects what happens down below.
There is no "warming event", it's just what happens when it's extremely cold, and these multiple cortices combine to send the coldest air down, which means very strong jet streams, and based on the model, it's going to be a "cold outbreak", which of course will end up being blamed on warming.
While it seems to be a different pattern than the mid February 2021 cold outbreaks, it's not actually that different. Looking at the 10 hPa layer.
Sometimes just eyeballing the model output reveals all kinds of interesting patterns.
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. If I remember correctly 99% of the places on my freeze monitoring list had a colder than normal coldest winter temperature, and some places in South Florida even got freak freezes.
