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Hey mate. Best of luck on that exam. Thunderstorm chances for then have dropped considerably over the past several hours, though there is a risk still.
Thanks. Looks like even being couped up in a hall for the arvo is not enough to spark off the fun. Never mind, I did get a good drenching from slate grey Melbourne skies waiting for the tram afterwards. So Melbourne, so s***.
Dude, WHY have storm chances gone to hell yet again, yet again, YET AGAIN, YET AGAAARRRRGGGGHGHHHHHHH Im about to blow up
Lincoln England gets a November thunderstorm once every 15 Novembers, making it the least thundery month of the year. However, something interesting could happen in the next few days. Will we see some November thunder here in Lincoln England for the first time since 1991? I hope so, even if it means eating my calculator.
TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK issued on Friday November 7 2008 at 15:15GMT
A rapidly developing Atlantic depression will push a well-marked cold front (the leading edge of a cold Canadian airmass) across the British Isles through Saturday afternoon and evening. Weak instability is forecast immediately ahead of the front across central and southern Eire, Wales, and England south of the Mersey to the Humber. In addition, strong forced ascent is indicated along the leading edge of the cold 'dome' of air. Thus, both free and forced ascent seem quite likely, leading to a squall line, and this will occur within an environment characterised by strong kinematics (wind shear), favourable for the production of severe weather.
0-1km shear values of 30-50 knots are progged to accompany the front, which may well lead to the development of a line-echo wave pattern (LEWP) effect, with embedded misocylones. Such features can lead to locally enhanced winds, perhaps bringing 50-60mph gusts, locally higher. In addition, low-level buoyancy may be sufficient, especially in southern coastal counties of Eire, Wales, and England, for the development of tornadoes. There is a small risk of an outbreak of tornadoes.
Further severe convection looks likely in the following airmass, most likely for N Eire, N Ireland, and W Scotland, where strong wind shear and instability will overlap. Here, the primary threat will be damaging winds.
On Sunday, further convection is likely, and with a continuation of strong kinematics, further severe weather is possible. However, it looks like a surge of modest moisture and a developing cold front/wave will complicate things, but may also lead to an enhanced risk of severe weather.
Forecaster: RPK.
Could we really get a November thunderstorm? I will have my camera out at the ready, and it will be a momentus youtube video, just because of how rare it is to get November thunder here in Lincoln England. Of course, the storm will probably be very week.
So, for the next few days in Lincoln:
Saturday 8th November: 10% chance of a thunderstorm
Sunday 9th November: 35% chance of a thunderstorm (very high for November)
Monday 10th November: 35% chance of a thunderstorm
Tuesday 11th November: 31% chance of a thunderstorm
Dude, WHY have storm chances gone to hell yet again, yet again, YET AGAIN, YET AGAAARRRRGGGGHGHHHHHHH Im about to blow up
Reason is timing. Everything was right through your area until the wind shifted slightly which changed values in the atmosphere at different points and ceased thunderstorm development. Good chances still ahead though!
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Saturday Afternoon: Generally yesterday saw isolated thunderstorms in the northwest and southwest, and also in the northeast in the afternoon. No thunderstorms are expected this afternoon.
Sunday: No thunederstorms are expected across Victoria as a high pressure system dominates.
FURTHER OUTLOOK
A high pressure system is likely to cause no thunderstorms on Monday. Another unsettled period with high moisture levels and the help of troughs appears on the guidence from Tuesday, persisting on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on any of these days though mostly in the west and north at this stage, however these particular days will be assesed when we get to them.
Reason is timing. Everything was right through your area until the wind shifted slightly which changed values in the atmosphere at different points and ceased thunderstorm development. Good chances still ahead though!
Let me guess, the wind shifted to a SOUR WETERLY direction??? Causing a triple wammy - Boring old rainband, COLD, no storms... :m ad:
It was being harped on so much about, just like the one before it, and what do we get, NOTHING.
I won't expect anything next time everything looks "ideal" for storms. Next time the BOM says "scattered storms", I'll laugh sarcastically like an idiot. I'msick of the constant dissappointment, so the only remedy is to give my hopes up and not bother with expectations.
I love it how the BOM says scattered storms for a few days ahead, but then change it to boring "showers" in the last minute.
Forecast for next Thursday is "scattered storms". YEAH RIGHT WHATF'KN EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
It might be better then if you are not expecting anything then you will get a suprise!
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Saturday Evening: No thunderstorms are expected this evening or overnight.
Sunday: No thunderstorms are expected across Victoria as a high pressure system dominates.
FURTHER OUTLOOK
A high pressure system is likely to cause no thunderstorms on Monday. Another unsettled period with high moisture levels and the help of troughs appears on the guidence from Tuesday, persisting on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on any of these days though mostly in the west and north at this stage, however these particular days will be assesed when we get to them.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Sunday: No thunderstorms are expected across Victoria as a high pressure system dominates.
FURTHER OUTLOOK
A high pressure system is likely to cause no thunderstorms on Monday. Another unsettled period with high moisture levels and the help of troughs appears on the guidence from Tuesday, persisting on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on any of these days though mostly in the west and north at this stage, however these particular days will be assesed when we get to them.
Lincoln England gets a November thunderstorm once every 15 Novembers, making it the least thundery month of the year. However, something interesting could happen in the next few days. Will we see some November thunder here in Lincoln England for the first time since 1991? I hope so, even if it means eating my calculator.
TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK issued on Friday November 7 2008 at 15:15GMT
A rapidly developing Atlantic depression will push a well-marked cold front (the leading edge of a cold Canadian airmass) across the British Isles through Saturday afternoon and evening. Weak instability is forecast immediately ahead of the front across central and southern Eire, Wales, and England south of the Mersey to the Humber. In addition, strong forced ascent is indicated along the leading edge of the cold 'dome' of air. Thus, both free and forced ascent seem quite likely, leading to a squall line, and this will occur within an environment characterised by strong kinematics (wind shear), favourable for the production of severe weather.
0-1km shear values of 30-50 knots are progged to accompany the front, which may well lead to the development of a line-echo wave pattern (LEWP) effect, with embedded misocylones. Such features can lead to locally enhanced winds, perhaps bringing 50-60mph gusts, locally higher. In addition, low-level buoyancy may be sufficient, especially in southern coastal counties of Eire, Wales, and England, for the development of tornadoes. There is a small risk of an outbreak of tornadoes.
Further severe convection looks likely in the following airmass, most likely for N Eire, N Ireland, and W Scotland, where strong wind shear and instability will overlap. Here, the primary threat will be damaging winds.
On Sunday, further convection is likely, and with a continuation of strong kinematics, further severe weather is possible. However, it looks like a surge of modest moisture and a developing cold front/wave will complicate things, but may also lead to an enhanced risk of severe weather.
Forecaster: RPK.
Could we really get a November thunderstorm? I will have my camera out at the ready, and it will be a momentus youtube video, just because of how rare it is to get November thunder here in Lincoln England. Of course, the storm will probably be very week.
So, for the next few days in Lincoln:
Saturday 8th November: 10% chance of a thunderstorm
Sunday 9th November: 35% chance of a thunderstorm (very high for November)
Monday 10th November: 35% chance of a thunderstorm
Tuesday 11th November: 31% chance of a thunderstorm
NO!NO!NO!NO!NO!NO!
Well this cold front is moving through now, bit of wind, bit of rain, but as for convection or thunder, a dud
It could not be more boring. I guess it's just that difficult to get thunder in November
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Sunday: No thunderstorms are expected across Victoria as a high pressure system dominates.
Monday: No thunderstorms are expected.
FURTHER OUTLOOK
Another unsettled period with high moisture levels and the help of troughs appears on the guidence from Tuesday, persisting on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on any of these days though mostly in the west and north at this stage, however these particular days will be assesed when we get to them.
Well this cold front is moving through now, bit of wind, bit of rain, but as for convection or thunder, a dud
It could not be more boring. I guess it's just that difficult to get thunder in November
Sounds like what usually (ALWAYS) happens here
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. Thunderstorm chances for then have dropped considerably over the past several hours, though there is a risk still.
