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Old 03-04-2013, 04:19 PM
 
2,634 posts, read 2,668,878 times
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Interesting blog post on Nate Silver's 538 blog about Arizona demographic changes. While there are BIG uncertainties how future elections turn out, the demographic shift towards democrat-leaning minorities is a fact and unstoppable. So will Arizona vote a Democrat presidential candidate in 2016 already? - Not likely, but by 2020 the presidential elections will be competitive in Arizona IMO.

Can Democrats Turn Texas and Arizona Blue by 2016? - NYTimes.com
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Old 03-04-2013, 08:48 PM
 
Location: Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ
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Hmmm, so are we trying to re-open this closed topic here:

//www.city-data.com/forum/arizo...d-arizona.html

or add on to the end of this well hashed out topic here:

//www.city-data.com/forum/arizo...isolation.html

?
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Old 03-05-2013, 12:16 AM
 
Location: East Central Phoenix
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After what a mess both the Bush and Obama administrations have made, more people are actually registering as independent or third party. Democrats will not take over Arizona anytime soon. In fact, independents now outnumber Democrats in this state, and are gaining on the number of registered Republicans.

Even though there are strong pockets of blue in Arizona (most notably Tucson, Flagstaff, some parts of metro Phoenix, and the Indian Reservations), this state will most likely not turn blue in the next election. Obama's job approval rating is below 50% once again ... so after all this administration's many failures (stimulus package, Benghazi, fiscal cliff, sequestration, etc.), I have doubts that a Democrat will be elected as President in 2016. Not that the GOP is any better, but the majority of people are not satisfied with the direction this country is headed.

Last edited by Valley Native; 03-05-2013 at 12:26 AM..
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Old 03-05-2013, 02:13 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
Interesting blog post on Nate Silver's 538 blog about Arizona demographic changes. While there are BIG uncertainties how future elections turn out, the demographic shift towards democrat-leaning minorities is a fact and unstoppable. So will Arizona vote a Democrat presidential candidate in 2016 already? - Not likely, but by 2020 the presidential elections will be competitive in Arizona IMO.

Can Democrats Turn Texas and Arizona Blue by 2016? - NYTimes.com
who cares about your opinion?
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Old 03-05-2013, 03:28 PM
 
Location: Phoenix Arizona
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
Interesting blog post on Nate Silver's 538 blog about Arizona demographic changes. While there are BIG uncertainties how future elections turn out, the demographic shift towards democrat-leaning minorities is a fact and unstoppable. So will Arizona vote a Democrat presidential candidate in 2016 already? - Not likely, but by 2020 the presidential elections will be competitive in Arizona IMO.

Can Democrats Turn Texas and Arizona Blue by 2016? - NYTimes.com
Maricopa County has the majority of people in the state and it's been heading toward 1/3 Republican, 1/3 Democrat, and 1/3 Independent so we may see some changes in the political climate in Arizona in the next few years.
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Old 03-05-2013, 06:30 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
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Originally Posted by CinSonic View Post
who cares about your opinion?
Apparently YOU cared enough to read it.



Ken
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Old 03-05-2013, 06:40 PM
 
20,524 posts, read 14,446,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valley Native View Post
After what a mess both the Bush and Obama administrations have made, more people are actually registering as independent or third party. Democrats will not take over Arizona anytime soon. In fact, independents now outnumber Democrats in this state, and are gaining on the number of registered Republicans.

Even though there are strong pockets of blue in Arizona (most notably Tucson, Flagstaff, some parts of metro Phoenix, and the Indian Reservations), this state will most likely not turn blue in the next election. Obama's job approval rating is below 50% once again ... so after all this administration's many failures (stimulus package, Benghazi, fiscal cliff, sequestration, etc.), I have doubts that a Democrat will be elected as President in 2016. Not that the GOP is any better, but the majority of people are not satisfied with the direction this country is headed.
Uh: a "blue" before 1970 is called a "red" today and a blue today is a radical it seems. But I doubt Arizona will go "Cali" blue like you all but said.
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Old 03-06-2013, 05:25 AM
 
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It is funny how folks who escaped a regime, like CA, Mexico, south america, want that same regime in their new place...
Slow learners i guess.....
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Old 03-06-2013, 06:16 AM
 
3,591 posts, read 8,147,280 times
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Originally Posted by corydon View Post
It is funny how folks who escaped a regime, like CA, Mexico, south america, want that same regime in their new place...
Slow learners i guess.....
One of the blogs that I read suggests that red states like Texas and others that attract refugees from California, New York, Michigan have a welcoming committee. Give these people a packet of information explaining why the state they left doesn't have jobs, has high taxes or is generally falling apart. Keep these people from voting for the same party that caused those once great states to decline.
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Old 03-06-2013, 11:42 AM
 
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I think we have to segregate immigration and organic shifts. Both Virginia and North Carolina have become competitive states recently due to immigration from blue states. The 538 article alleges that the demographic shifts in Arizona will be from within the current population as more and more minority children will grow up and vote - rather than us receiving an influx from "true blue" states.
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