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Ok, I'll bite the bait from a low ender. There are nukes involved. No one is going to occupy anyone else. The US and China will keep taiwan the way it is...a Republic of China that's running itself but has no real diplomatic heft.
The only clincher will be when a retard green politician decides to rock the boat. A pointless declaration of de jure independence for the ROT will come out, and China will be forced to take action. The US will scream and most likely the green politician will be eliminated and status quo re-established.
If taiwan"invites" the US in, or ask the US for admission to the union, that will trigger a Chinese invasion under the Anti-Secession law. The US will force taiwan to retract that request, guaranteed.
If it does not, then there will be war, China will be defeated but only after the US also suffer major damage. Nuke exchanges will be averted only when each side backs down. Taiwan will be decimated. Greyholic will be among the stream of destitute refugees clamouring onto rickety boats. I will be watching with my popcorn in front of my flatscreen.
To the Promised Land for Taiwanese of Japan had to say it
The US Seventh Fleet sailed into the Taiwan Strait after ROC retreated to Taiwan and PRC controlled coastal Mainland China.
They are not officially allies since US ended official diplomatic relations with ROC.
The US Seventh Fleet sailed into the Taiwan Strait after ROC retreated to Taiwan and PRC controlled coastal Mainland China.
They are not officially allies since US ended official diplomatic relations with ROC.
The Seventh Fleet won't be sailing anywhere near Taiwan with the deployment of the DF-21D.
The price for "defending taiwan", whatever that means, is getting steeper with each passing year. The US has plenty of wiggle room to define the Taiwan Relations Act to suit its own self interest, and I think both China and the US know this. The only fool in the room may well be a green taiwanese president who grossly miscalculate (or who wants to prove his machismo) and ignite a war that, in the end, both China and the US don't want. The one known fact is that China will react fully to a taiwan provocation, and regardless of who (China or the US) wins, the one certainty is that Taiwan as an island will be completely destroyed.
Just a clarification about the Taiwan Relations Act. It does say that the US is obliged to help the ROC to defend itself. But no where in the act does it refer to the ROC as an "ally" of the US. It is NOT a mutual defense treaty that many mistaken it to be. If the government on taiwan actually sign a real defense treaty with the US, the Anti-Secession Law in China will kick in and oblige China to directly attack taiwan immediately and resolve this ridiculously dragged out little civil war, regardless of the consequence. And the result will be the same as the previous scenario.....no matter who wins, taiwan will be utterly devastated.
China's military power is only strong enough to bully much weaker neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines. Against the US, they will be destroyed.
Is it true that America has tons of warships in the South China Sea, so that if Taiwan is attacked, our ships can move northward and defend Taiwan? Is that the idea?
There have been conflicts between China, Vietnam and the Phillipines. Is the US trying to be the police down there, or is it just there so it can move towards Taiwan if needed?
It may also have to do with sea piracy which is large in Malaysia. Is America being the police against the piracy? Which the book mentioned very little.
There is a need to define the difference between intention and capability. They are 2 very different things.
Firstly, PRC's intention cannot be denied.
They have very specifically written a very specific Anti-seccession Law into their national constituition.
That means an iron-clad law; which says that if ROC declares independence, PRC will go to war.
Thus, intention here is already clarified.
The next thing to consider is capability; can the PRC win a war with Taiwan? The short answer is yes, via overwhelming superiority.
But can the PRC win a war with the US? No.
Even if we include the changes created by the anti-carrier DF missile, the PRC is not even a close competitor of the US.
Purely on a conventional basis, China will definitely lose. But that is a prospect they are already well-prepared for.
China's military power is only strong enough to bully much weaker neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines. Against the US, they will be destroyed.
1.First of all the might of the US army is very much an illusion since it is built on BORROWED money.
2.How did the great American army fare in Vietnam? The American army got owned by a bunch of gurilla fighters. How are things going in Iraq and Afghanistan btw?
China's military power is only strong enough to bully much weaker neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines. Against the US, they will be destroyed.
This is true of any country currently, short of nuclear mutual suicide. Given that the US has been a military hegemon, with a military budget several times bigger than the combined budgets of the next few countries, and the perpetual wars and the real live practices that American "War on XYZ" whatever afford, it's not hard to see why the US can easily kick China or anyone else's butt. China hasn't been in any kind of war for a very long time and its military modernization was delayed at the expense of other sector modernization through the 90's. It's only now that the Chinese government is making up to the PLA for lost resources through that delayed modernization process. China is a big country and it should have a competent military to defend its interests. Given that it's a major economy and has trading relationships with practically everyone, it's not surprising that it wants a capable navy, not one that can defeat the US necessarily, but at the very least one that can get the respect that it deserves.
All this bruhaha about the Chinese threat all have political motives. The Japanese want to hype up the Chinese threat because it wants to become a "normal" country with the ability to project offensively overseas. Other countries also have their political and territorial motives. All those little countries in the SCS all want to keep their little islands because of resources. They know that their claims are only just as good as China's, but they stand no chance unless they drag the US into the mess. It's all politics, folks. In the end, so long as China stays united and continues to develop, I don't see how the SCS ultimately will not become a "CHinese lake". It's just a matter of time.
1.First of all the might of the US army is very much an illusion since it is built on BORROWED money.
2.How did the great American army fare in Vietnam? The American army got owned by a bunch of gurilla fighters. How are things going in Iraq and Afghanistan btw?
.
With each year of delayed conflict, the Chinese make up ground and close the distance. They also focus on non-conventional warfare, because they follow SunZi's dictums. Let's just hope that the US and China are not pushed or forced into a showdown. It wont be good for anyone, including taiwan, which will be totally destroyed no matter what the outcome of the US-China war. Seriously, I find the childish chest-thumping from some taiwanese "nationalist" so laughable; they don't realize that their bravado, no matter how it's twisted and spinned, will end up with the complete destruction of their little island. China may well lose to the US, but it will leave taiwan completely useless and uninhabitable for anyone.
China also needs to ramp up its nukes in terms of numbers. They have far too few, and the only reason the Russians are more "respected" by the US is because of the sheer number of Russian nukes and delivery systems. Much of Russia's conventional arms are in very bad shape. China has surpassed Russia on many fronts.
Last edited by Oldhag1; 05-03-2015 at 06:15 AM..
Reason: Edited quote
With each year of delayed conflict, the Chinese make up ground and close the distance. They also focus on non-conventional warfare, because they follow SunZi's dictums. Let's just hope that the US and China are not pushed or forced into a showdown. It wont be good for anyone, including taiwan, which will be totally destroyed no matter what the outcome of the US-China war. Seriously, I find the childish chest-thumping from some taiwanese "nationalist" so laughable; they don't realize that their bravado, no matter how it's twisted and spinned, will end up with the complete destruction of their little island. China may well lose to the US, but it will leave taiwan completely useless and uninhabitable for anyone.
China also needs to ramp up its nukes in terms of numbers. They have far too few, and the only reason the Russians are more "respected" by the US is because of the sheer number of Russian nukes and delivery systems. Much of Russia's conventional arms are in very bad shape. China has surpassed Russia on many fronts.
Not really.....I do a lot of follow-up on this issue and developments.
Moderator cut: not English20 cargo plane currently uses Russian D-30 engines, although media releases by Moderator cut: not Englishsaid that later versions will use locally produced WS-20 engine (albeit Russian clones too)
Nearly half of PRC's Moderator cut: not English submarines are Russian purchases or based on Russian designs.
two-thirds of the fight planes in use by PLA Moderator cut: not English are built on Russian designs too.
Probably another 20-30 years before PLA can catch up with Russia.
Last edited by Oldhag1; 05-04-2015 at 05:38 AM..
Reason: Fixed formatting/removed non-English words
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