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If CCP collapses today this will result in at least 100 million emigrants in America alone. We're talking about over a billion people most of which can't just go to a capitalist country. The next effect will be American companies getting hold on the Chinese resources, which is what happened in eastern europe in the 90s since the fall of communism.
IMO better of two evils. It's like, would you rather be in Communist China or a Corporate China? At least Corporate China would pay me better given my skill set and not kill me because I made a 'wrong' post on some social media
^ The real question here I think is: is it possible at all? From my anecdotal experience with East Asia they have a "group mentality" which may seem alien to those among us from the west. In fact even Japan and Korea were very feodal and communistic until they got the western influence in the 20th century.
If China is left without communism it may result in several countries each of which becoming a poor wilderness, think like Mongolia today.
If CCP collapses today this will result in at least 100 million emigrants in America alone. We're talking about over a billion people most of which can't just go to a capitalist country. The next effect will be American companies getting hold on the Chinese resources, which is what happened in eastern europe in the 90s since the fall of communism.
Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123
^ The real question here I think is: is it possible at all? From my anecdotal experience with East Asia they have a "group mentality" which may seem alien to those among us from the west. In fact even Japan and Korea were very feodal and communistic until they got the western influence in the 20th century.
If China is left without communism it may result in several countries each of which becoming a poor wilderness, think like Mongolia today.
I'm still here in China. These are my observations...
1. The virus is not properly "under control," things aren't totally back to normal. And that's not a bad thing. The CCP will say it's been beaten back completely to save it's economy, save face, and try to maneuver around the US/EU while they are down, but everyone is still staying in and avoiding large gatherings.
2. China is still, at its core, a mercantilist nation and can't risk infuriating those places too much - their recovery depends largely on the state of the rest of the world. They rolled back publicly giving space to anti-US conspiracies after the US ramped up anti-China rhetoric and the EU started to push back as well. I think they were testing the waters to see if they could get away with it, as generally the US/EU barely or don't acknowledge China's bombastic statements. They've also rolled back some of their "world savior" posturing, which was in full effect a couple weeks ago. The danger in pushing this narrative is that while on the one hand you will gain some ground among Western malcontents and developing nations who have an axe to grind with the West, this also crates a reaction where other elements constantly remind everyone where the crisis originated, and the negative sentiment from wealthier nations will likely be more detrimental to China's recovery than trying to control the global narrative.
3. The CCP may have taken a hit from this, but no, it's not going to collapse, not any time soon. XJP looked really bad early on but has limited his time publicly, in large part to let other officials take any risks to their reputation in the event that anything goes sour, but he can (and will) swoop in to claim any victories all the same. The over-the-top praise of him heaped on in the period of time after the peak was met with a lot of sarcasm from the Chinese public, but very little has changed. The CCP has spend decades obsessively shoring up power with intensity increasing exponentially over the last decade, and implemented a sprawling electronic security and surveillance apparatus for this very issue. The grand pronouncements, the banners of him holding his hand out benevolently against a red flag and a clear sky, the photo ops of him meeting fawning medical staff in Hubei, etc, aren't going anywhere, but in my estimation, fewer people feel energized by them.
There's certainly been a difference in many people's attitudes - the CCP basically has a covenant with its people, that they sacrifice liberty and some degree of autonomy in exchange for a promise of uninhibited growth and security. The bargain has looked increasingly skewed towards the party lately. But there's a sense that not too much can be done anyways, and that all anyone can do is sit tight until this is all over. For China, it being "over" depends on when the rest of the world gets over it, too.
Also of note, a few hours ago, Shanghai announced they are re-closing bars, clubs, and KTV's again as there have been more reported cases (the govt claims they were all "imported" which I find somewhat unlikely).
Also of note, a few hours ago, Shanghai announced they are re-closing bars, clubs, and KTV's again as there have been more reported cases (the govt claims they were all "imported" which I find somewhat unlikely).
Thanks so much for the updates. Much appreciated, and stay safe!
I'm still here in China. These are my observations...
1. The virus is not properly "under control," things aren't totally back to normal. And that's not a bad thing. The CCP will say it's been beaten back completely to save it's economy, save face, and try to maneuver around the US/EU while they are down, but everyone is still staying in and avoiding large gatherings.
2. China is still, at its core, a mercantilist nation and can't risk infuriating those places too much - their recovery depends largely on the state of the rest of the world. They rolled back publicly giving space to anti-US conspiracies after the US ramped up anti-China rhetoric and the EU started to push back as well. I think they were testing the waters to see if they could get away with it, as generally the US/EU barely or don't acknowledge China's bombastic statements. They've also rolled back some of their "world savior" posturing, which was in full effect a couple weeks ago. The danger in pushing this narrative is that while on the one hand you will gain some ground among Western malcontents and developing nations who have an axe to grind with the West, this also crates a reaction where other elements constantly remind everyone where the crisis originated, and the negative sentiment from wealthier nations will likely be more detrimental to China's recovery than trying to control the global narrative.
3. The CCP may have taken a hit from this, but no, it's not going to collapse, not any time soon. XJP looked really bad early on but has limited his time publicly, in large part to let other officials take any risks to their reputation in the event that anything goes sour, but he can (and will) swoop in to claim any victories all the same. The over-the-top praise of him heaped on in the period of time after the peak was met with a lot of sarcasm from the Chinese public, but very little has changed. The CCP has spend decades obsessively shoring up power with intensity increasing exponentially over the last decade, and implemented a sprawling electronic security and surveillance apparatus for this very issue. The grand pronouncements, the banners of him holding his hand out benevolently against a red flag and a clear sky, the photo ops of him meeting fawning medical staff in Hubei, etc, aren't going anywhere, but in my estimation, fewer people feel energized by them.
There's certainly been a difference in many people's attitudes - the CCP basically has a covenant with its people, that they sacrifice liberty and some degree of autonomy in exchange for a promise of uninhibited growth and security. The bargain has looked increasingly skewed towards the party lately. But there's a sense that not too much can be done anyways, and that all anyone can do is sit tight until this is all over. For China, it being "over" depends on when the rest of the world gets over it, too.
Great info. Since you are on the ground there a couple of questions:
China reported having only 82,000 thousand positive cases with under 10,000 dead, and the cases completely stopped growing sometime in March with no new cases. Yet I've read several articles which say that China is lying, that the REAL count is probably well over a million positive cases, with closer to 100,000 dead. Seems like a huge disparity between the two. What say you?
Plus if the million is more accurate, with new cases still popping up, we learn that China is re opening the economy, and the lockdown has been lifted. How exactly is that working out? Are people still going to back to life as usual, knowing that the virus is still growing?
But i see very little point of posting here as it is filled with China haters, who just spend all day wishing that China will collapse.
You can call me a China hater, only because they tried to hide all this from the get go. Remember what they did to the doctors who tried to sound the alarm? put him in jail and he died. Just for trying to do his job. Had China been more proactive earlier who knows how this might have ended differently. And we all know that they are lying about the virus being completely stopped. Yet again. This is why China has zero credibility in my eyes, and the eyes of many others too.
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