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You're making the Putin-esque mistake of taking the gripes of people who enjoy all the benefits of political freedom as political weakness and/or willingness to accept a foreign occupier. Talk is cheap, and so are polls.
Ukraine should dispel any such misapprehensions. The political disputes of the Ukranians made them appeared divided and weak to Putin, just as Taiwanese legislators punching each other on the debate floor used to make Xi salivate.
Put a Russian boot on Ukranian soil or a Chinese boot on Taiwanese soil and watch that illusion of division and unwillingness to defend their homes vanish like the morning mist over Huangshan.
So it seems like China simply needs to encourage division in Taiwan and then fund the opposition most loyal. Encouraging a civil war or uprising, all to get loyalist in power. That would be genius. Don't even have to fight a war. They will have plenty of examples to follow, this has been the U.S strategy since WWII.
So it seems like China simply needs to encourage division in Taiwan and then fund the opposition most loyal. Encouraging a civil war or uprising, all to get loyalist in power. That would be genius. Don't even have to fight a war. They will have plenty of examples to follow, this has been the U.S strategy since WWII.
Yes, that was the strategy before Xi and was working quite well.
But he got impatient and couldn't tolerate that the party he funded lost the election, so he punished Taiwan ensuring that Taiwanese do not want economic partnership anymore and then he doubled down by cracking down in Hong Kong.
All this nonsense about the “fatal flaw of liberal democracy” and the “demise of the West” keeps getting parroted around the internet. As if authoritarian regimes like the CCP and the Saudis are something to emulate. The truth is authoritarian, totalitarian states will never be able to achieve the level of cooperation and mutual respect necessary to have a meaningful influence in the modern globalized world. Given the choice, almost every country will choose to side with the West each and every time.
All this nonsense about the “fatal flaw of liberal democracy” and the “demise of the West” keeps getting parroted around the internet. As if authoritarian regimes like the CCP and the Saudis are something to emulate. The truth is authoritarian, totalitarian states will never be able to achieve the level of cooperation and mutual respect necessary to have a meaningful influence in the modern globalized world. Given the choice, almost every country will choose to side with the West each and every time.
Absolutely correct, but the CCP's money is the now the apple in the garden. The CCP lures big business CEO's and stars into their "den of iniquity". They're really good at it and do it all the time. See the NBA and LeBron James for reference. Money buys loyalty, silence and capitulation and when that fails, more money helps.
US companies put their souls up for sale and the CCP has the cash to buy them. Originally the CCP went down to Georgia looking for souls to steal. but that didn't work out... so they went after the executives instead. . That seems to be working.
So... Like Gen. Keane said... They're doing that right now in Taiwan with their business leaders. It's their MO, has been for some time and will continue to be in the future. It works and you stay with something that works until it doesn't.
Yes, that was the strategy before Xi and was working quite well.
But he got impatient and couldn't tolerate that the party he funded lost the election, so he punished Taiwan ensuring that Taiwanese do not want economic partnership anymore and then he doubled down by cracking down in Hong Kong.
Right, and that's part of the inherent issue with authoritarian control--you can make snap decisions that are great if you have someone well suited at the time for the occasion, but you can also really quickly get someone who changes everything fairly quickly as well and that person at the top because of the power wielded will generally be surrounded and coddled into believing all their actions are a great stroke of genius.
All this nonsense about the “fatal flaw of liberal democracy” and the “demise of the West” keeps getting parroted around the internet. As if authoritarian regimes like the CCP and the Saudis are something to emulate. The truth is authoritarian, totalitarian states will never be able to achieve the level of cooperation and mutual respect necessary to have a meaningful influence in the modern globalized world. Given the choice, almost every country will choose to side with the West each and every time.
Having a difficult time believing this statement. Most countries will side with what is best for their interest, rather that be an authoritative regime or a liberal democracy it doesn't matter. China is liked over the U.S. in many other countries because they give them loans, encourage development, and don't try to consistently overthrow or sanction their government. It's that simple. No one cares what type of government you have.
Having a difficult time believing this statement. Most countries will side with what is best for their interest, rather that be an authoritative regime or a liberal democracy it doesn't matter. China is liked over the U.S. in many other countries because they give them loans, encourage development, and don't try to consistently overthrow or sanction their government. It's that simple. No one cares what type of government you have.
You bring up a good point with Chinese non-interventionism in contrast to the United States. The US indeed has been involved in way too many regime change wars over the years. I do think it should be stated though, that The Non-Aligned movement is becoming less and less applicable to China with China’s expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea and further out into the Pacific.
Also from what I’ve gathered, the loans you speak of are corrupt politicians making shady deals. They don’t reflect the will of the people and these decisions are immensely unpopular where they’ve been implemented.
The CCP employs the slicing the salami tactics. They take one island or parcel at a time, if you let them. They just finished building military bases on the 7 islands they stole from neighboring countries. From these island they can control the sea and strike Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. They have basically taken away to sea from these countries with the fake nine dash line claim.
Some current talk on China "non-intervention". That may have been the practice for a short period of time in the early 2000's as China moderated and reformed from it Communist ideology that sparked a number of Asian conflict in the second half of the 20th century, but that has all changed with Xie. This is a new era.
Obviously they are establishing regional hegemony via expansion into the south china sea, and dramatic expansion of it's naval capabilities. But people need to realize this goes beyond the obvious military expansions, this is "hybrid" warfare at it's best. They are using coercion, bribes, inducement, political manipulations, to expand it's network of treaties and alliances. So you can see alliances shifting in The Philipines and Thailand (not so in Japan or Australia however)...what they call "sharp power". At the same time they are using these same efforts in Africa to gain increased influence on the world stage. More important is it's economic manipulations. As I said before China is primarily a mercantile nation, and can likewise use those powers to achieve regional hegemony and eventually global domination.
Eventually, these efforts are just as consequential, and just as deadly in terms of civil uprisings, lack of stability, and strife, as conventional conflicts.
So it seems like China simply needs to encourage division in Taiwan and then fund the opposition most loyal. Encouraging a civil war or uprising, all to get loyalist in power. That would be genius. Don't even have to fight a war. They will have plenty of examples to follow, this has been the U.S strategy since WWII.
As other posters pointed out, this strategy had a chance when China's star was ascendant and the country was rapidly liberalizing. In 2008, I could see a path to reunification in a few decades.
Then Pooh Bear came along and murdered/arrested all his political opponents, seized power, and dusted off the Party's machinery of oppression. Taiwanese interest in reunification with China subsequently cratered with the grinding of nascent representative government into the dirt in China.
Maybe when Xi "steps down" the march to reunification can resume. First, though, China is going to need a government that reasonably represents the interests of its people, and not just its politicians. Witness Shanghai today.
Quote:
No one cares what type of government you have.
The fervent wish/dream of despots the world over.
You can see a lot of this in the fanboys, posting pictures of imaginary Chinese CG's, renderings of future technologies, and postulations of how overwhelming Chinese military might/hackers/psyops will demoralize the Taiwanese and remove their will to fight.
As if it mattered.
Because the US had all that, and more, and still couldn't remove the people's will to fight enough to hold tiny stone-age Afghanistan.
Russia had some of that, and couldn't even take divided and practically-unarmed Ukraine.
China can have 10X their current power, and they still will be unable to hold heavily-armed, unified, and fortified Taiwan, and they're unlikely to even briefly take it in the more-realistic scenario of Chinese military and economic power peaking in the next decade.
Beating someone doesn't remove their will to fight, being decent humans and making friends with them does.
China's 2 million soldiers can take Taiwan, unopposed, the day 40 million Taiwanese want to be a part of China. Until then, not even 20 million soldiers will be able to do it.
Of course they will never say it, but there are plenty of US realpolitik subscribers who would like nothing more than for China to eviscerate itself upon Taiwan, just as Russia so kindly did upon Ukraine, (self-)defeating both our major adversaries without spilling a drop of official US blood.
Whether those people are in power will determine whether the US immediately intervenes in a short sharp conflict defeating or discouraging the impossible Chinese sealift necessary to take Taiwan, and preventing a humanitarian disaster. If the realpolitikers have their way, Taiwan would become another Ukraine, pumped full of weapons, logistics, and battlefield intelligence so that the Taiwanese can bleed the Chinese dry.
Really, for China, the only way to win the game is not to play.
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. That seems to be working. 
