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The point it that a blockade will mean war...Taiwan can hold it's own, particularly in terms of a blockade. China's navy is not particularly impressive. A blockade will fail.
For Ukraine, plenty of countries are taking action in terms of sanctions and military support, what you live in a cave or something?
Taiwan is helping Ukraine too. If any country would understand what it is like to be bullied by the next door neighbor, it would be Taiwan.
The point it that a blockade will mean war...Taiwan can hold it's own, particularly in terms of a blockade. China's navy is not particularly impressive. A blockade will fail.
For Ukraine, plenty of countries are taking action in terms of sanctions and military support, what you live in a cave or something?
Sanctions and military support are not the actions that will leave the Chinese leadership shaking in their boots. What would make them (and even Russia) hesitate is deployment of say 30,000 soldiers backed up by the 7th Fleet
Sanctions and military support are not the actions that will leave the Chinese leadership shaking in their boots. What would make them (and even Russia) hesitate is deployment of say 30,000 soldiers backed up by the 7th Fleet
The 7th fleet operates there (Pacific) already and there's almost 39000 troops in Japan, 24000 in Korea and you want another 30000?
The 7th fleet operates there (Pacific) already and there's almost 39000 troops in Japan, 24000 in Korea and you want another 30000?
Where do you want them to be deployed?
What I mean is, China will back off Taiwan only if they know for sure that those 39000 troops based in Japan would be headed over pronto along with the 7th Fleet if China invaded Taiwan. I'm not so sure that would happen. The US has no appetite for war with China, certainly not over Taiwan imo.
Excellent points. Allow me to play devil's advocate.
I would propose that such an invasion is actually increasingly likely to happen for a number of reasons:
1) China apparently is getting closer and closer to a "demographic armageddon", in which its population growth is supposed to fall of a cliff with no obvious way to replace the those future workers, something like what Japan is currently going through, but with the larger population base it will be ten times worse.
2) The Chinese economy has been slowing down for a while now, and we now know that there has been some fudging of the numbers so the economy is probably even worse than currently reported. The CCP has been able to maintain power and all of its dictatorial brutality in large part because they were able to guarantee stability and economic growth. Eliminate that and the tension you see currently in Hong Kong could be multiplied a thousand fold and spread over many other parts of the country. Add in all the already existing regional tensions (Tibet, Uiygurs, etc).
So whats the easiest and quickest way to distract the population from all these problems? A good ol' fashioned war! Just as Putin is now doing in Ukraine, I could very well see some Chinese leader ten to twenty years from now needing a similar distraction and Taiwan would serve very nicely. A good way to drum up patriotism, plus leaders tend to gain high approval rates in war time.
China has been steadily spending hundreds of billions of dollars every year to re arm and modernize its army. At some point, they will want to see the results of all that expenditure.
Sadly there are only two things that would successfully deter the Chinese from ever attacking Taiwan; The US EXPLICITLY guaranteeing Taiwan's safety ala Japan and South Korea, ideally building a base on Taiwan with US troops, or two; Taiwan developed nuclear weapons, all aimed at China. The US aint coming and its probably too late for number two. Once China caught wind of any nuclear testing it would invade immediately.
I think China would have no problem sacrificing a few million soldiers to accomplish the invasion of Taiwan. So it's really just a matter of time to wear down Taiwan.
I would have agreed prior to Ukraine, but now that the Ukrainian military is actually defeating and pushing back the Russians, it looks like defeat and "regime change" is inevitable in Moscow.
the lesson to any semi-sane despot is; pick an easy war you can pretend to win. To "win" Taiwan, China would have to land troops, hold beachheads, push inland, supply their forces (across the straight and then through the very hostile Taiwanese west coastal plain) and somehow pacify extremely dense and heavily-fortified cities.
Even if they weren't dug in and prepared, the Taiwanese would completely stymie resupply efforts by sabotaging airstrips and the handful of deep-water ports. A couple of small freighters scuttled in strategic locations and some earth-moving equipment tearing up runways and now the Chinese have to land and lug their food, fuel, and ammunition in the tidal flats and somehow come up with a way to shift megatons of supplies across sand and mud, before even reaching a road, where they can continue to try to move it under constant hostile fire from about a zillion steel-reinforced concrete houses (and ditches, and aqueducts, and freeways, that are built like bunkers (along with actual bunkers).
Putin seems to be giving a good lesson in how to lose a fratricidal war.
If you want to drum up nationalism and distract from internal problems, a better target for a shooting war are some little Japanese islands or a nearly-uninhabited border with India. The defenders aren't nearly as motivated, you get to show off your "gee-whiz" fancy new naval and air power, and it's much easier to declare "victory" even if you lose, because you only shot up a few hundred soldiers of the "other" rather than having murdered tens of thousands of civilians whose relatives are part of your population.
Plus the Western sanctions will be weaker, shorter, you didn't trash your economy or lose a lot of ground troops. It's kind of a no-brainer.
I would have agreed prior to Ukraine, but now that the Ukrainian military is actually defeating and pushing back the Russians, it looks like defeat and "regime change" is inevitable in Moscow.
the lesson to any semi-sane despot is; pick an easy war you can pretend to win. To "win" Taiwan, China would have to land troops, hold beachheads, push inland, supply their forces (across the straight and then through the very hostile Taiwanese west coastal plain) and somehow pacify extremely dense and heavily-fortified cities.
Even if they weren't dug in and prepared, the Taiwanese would completely stymie resupply efforts by sabotaging airstrips and the handful of deep-water ports. A couple of small freighters scuttled in strategic locations and some earth-moving equipment tearing up runways and now the Chinese have to land and lug their food, fuel, and ammunition in the tidal flats and somehow come up with a way to shift megatons of supplies across sand and mud, before even reaching a road, where they can continue to try to move it under constant hostile fire from about a zillion steel-reinforced concrete houses (and ditches, and aqueducts, and freeways, that are built like bunkers (along with actual bunkers).
Putin seems to be giving a good lesson in how to lose a fratricidal war.
If you want to drum up nationalism and distract from internal problems, a better target for a shooting war are some little Japanese islands or a nearly-uninhabited border with India. The defenders aren't nearly as motivated, you get to show off your "gee-whiz" fancy new naval and air power, and it's much easier to declare "victory" even if you lose, because you only shot up a few hundred soldiers of the "other" rather than having murdered tens of thousands of civilians whose relatives are part of your population.
Plus the Western sanctions will be weaker, shorter, you didn't trash your economy or lose a lot of ground troops. It's kind of a no-brainer.
India is a nuclear power with a pretty formidable military apparatus of its own, not sure if China wants that type of confrontation.
The United States is actually obligated to defend Japan unlike Taiwan, so any attempt to mess with them will mean having to deal with the US, again not a recipe for the type of easy success the Chinese leaders will be looking for.
What I mean is, China will back off Taiwan only if they know for sure that those 39000 troops based in Japan would be headed over pronto along with the 7th Fleet if China invaded Taiwan. I'm not so sure that would happen. The US has no appetite for war with China, certainly not over Taiwan imo.
Taiwan is well armed with 4th and 5th generation equipment.
The existential question for Taiwan IMO is 'what do/does the business-elites-corporate leaders do when the CCP makes them promises to keep them protected along with their wealth. I'm just not sure how loyal business -corporate elites are to Taiwan's survival.
You can bet the CCP is working right now on TRYING to secure big business to see if this is possible. I hoping for the best, but I suspect many CEO's (like oligarchs) will try to undermine the government of Taiwan with money and graft.
I would never move American Troops from Japan, unless the Japanese said so. No matter what happens in Chino-Pacific arena, Japan is STILL hated for their behaviors in WWII.
Japan is, and will remain the KEY, in the area. Japan knows this and is rapidly increasing their military strength.
Taiwan is well armed with 4th and 5th generation equipment.
The existential question for Taiwan IMO is 'what do/does the business-elites-corporate leaders do when the CCP makes them promises to keep them protected along with their wealth. I'm just not sure how loyal business -corporate elites are to Taiwan's survival.
You can bet the CCP is working right now on TRYING to secure big business to see if this is possible. I hoping for the best, but I suspect many CEO's (like oligarchs) will try to undermine the government of Taiwan with money and graft.
I would never move American Troops from Japan, unless the Japanese said so. No matter what happens in Chino-Pacific arena, Japan is STILL hated for their behaviors in WWII.
Japan is, and will remain the KEY, in the area. Japan knows this and is rapidly increasing their military strength.
Well those leaders need only look at Hong Kong to know how those promises will be respected. Also the 'disappearance' of Chinese billionaires who fall afoul of the CCP.
Well those leaders need only look at Hong Kong to know how those promises will be respected. Also the 'disappearance' of Chinese billionaires who fall afoul of the CCP.
More reason they would 'capitulate' seeing what happened those billionaires who opposed or ran afoul of the CCP. Do you think the CCP didn't know the message they were sending to 'everyone'? The CCP is cunning and rich... that buys a lot of capitulation and loyalty.
You know you made my point... right?
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