2010 Census Predictions: Atlanta (Dallas, Clayton, White: apartments, rental, condo)

[kirkwoodhipster]

The 2010 Census results are due out in December. I thought it would be cool to make some predictions.

City of Atlanta:

Demographics
42% white, 51% black, 2% Asian, 7% Other/Mixed/Native American/Pacific Islander. Hispanic of Any Race: 6%

I think the white population will break the 40% mark, which hasn't been seen since the 1970 Census. It is definitely be a landmark, and simply a continuation of a trend that has been occurring since the 1990 Census.

Population
approx. 545,000

Density
4,100

This is still very low, but an improvement nontheless. It still wont put us in the top 100. To give you an idea, Miami is number 122 with 10,000.

We will be the most dense out of the Sun Belt cities of Houston, Dallas, and Pheonix, which all have less than 4,000.

Metro Atlanta:

Population Rank
We will reach #7, beating out Miami and D.C. (Currently #9)




Feel free to add your own, or dispute mine!

[SW30303]

I think Georgia's population may crack 10 million. Your metro estimates are probably pretty close. Good guessing game thread.

[waronxmas]

I caution myself to make a prediction because I think 2010 is going to be a "shocker" in population and demographic stats for the City of Atlanta. So I'll give my high ball, low ball, and median predictions:

High Ball

Population: 598,000
Black: 51%
Non-Hispanic White: 40%
Asian: 4% <---real shocker
Latino: 5%
Density: 4564

Median

Population: 575,000
Black: 54%
Non-Hispanic White: 39%
Asian: 2%
Latino: 5%
Density: 4389

Low Ball

Population: 555,000
Black: 55%
Non-Hispanic White: 38.5%
Asian: 2%
Latino: 4.5%
Density: 4236

I still think the median will be the number for 2010, though I could very well see the low ball being the number since this recession has been particularly nasty. On the other hand, I've been looking at apartment rental listings lately and finding a place to rent is oddly in short supply. This tells me that while the condo market has been severely affect by the recession, people have instead opted for renting.

Since it is harder to track people moving into an city who then rent on a consistent basis, the high ball could very well be true or even exceeded. This theory has some 'meat' as I've noticed in my building (and the buildings of my friends) every seems to be maxed out. When we moved in 5 years ago maybe half the units were occupied, now all but one of the units are and this has happened with in the last 2 years. I do think though it will take us another few years to break the 600k mark.

It's going to be interesting to see. Yearly population estimates are a notoriously hard thing to nail down and the last 10 years (despite the recession) has been a good one for the city of Atlanta population wise. Anyone who has been an intown resident since 2000 (and especially the 90s) will tell you they have noticed just how much more populated and sometimes crowed all of the neighborhoods have become. This is based on more than just observation since the city has added 1000 people per square mile overall for the entire city (and much higher in several neighborhoods) even if the actual population number remains in the 540,000 range for 2010.

As for the metro, Atlanta will be #7. No doubt about that.

[brent6969]

I really think it could be, or over 600K........

[DeaconJ]

How do you think the racial make-up of the Metro Atlanta area will change? That's one that is often ignored in these discussions, i.e. many people call Atlanta a "black city" without considered the entire MSA (which is normally the consideration on city-data). I believe in 2000 the black/white percentages were 59% white and 38% black. Do you think the reverse will happen in the suburbs while the city sees an increase in white residents?

[brent6969]

Originally Posted by SW30303

I think Georgia's population may crack 10 million. Your metro estimates are probably pretty close. Good guessing game thread.

It is already over 10 million.

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by brent6969

I really think it could be, or over 600K........

It is a good possibility...but I'm keeping the bubbly on tap until the official numbers come out

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by DeaconJ

How do you think the racial make-up of the Metro Atlanta area will change? That's one that is often ignored in these discussions, i.e. many people call Atlanta a "black city" without considered the entire MSA (which is normally the consideration on city-data). I believe in 2000 the black/white percentages were 59% white and 38% black. Do you think the reverse will happen in the suburbs while the city sees an increase in white residents?

Very good point.

For suburban areas, Dekalb and Gwinnett will continue to be the cultural melting pots of the metro. Gwinnett in particular will certainly blow everyone away with the growth of it's Asian population. It has been nothing short of astounding.

Then there is the tail of Clayton and Cobb. Despite it's reputation, Clayton is already a multicultural melting pot. However, in contrast to Dekalb and Gwinnett, over the last 10 to 20 years that melting pot has grown with lower income individuals. Bucking trends around the metro in the last 20 years, Clayton was first integrated en masse by Southeast Asian refugees in the 1980s. They had a lot of children and both have for the most part stayed put in Clayton county and have stayed at lower income levels. Then during the 90s and 00s lower income Blacks and Latinos entered the area. There was some white flight, but Clayton still has a very large White community who also happens to be by and large lower income. Basically, it is going to be the destination for all ethnicities priced out of Gwinnett, Dekalb and Fulton.

On the flip side, the reverse happened in Cobb as middle income Blacks started to move into the area in the 90s and 00s in larger numbers and have recently been followed by middle income Asians and Latinos to some degree (but mostly lower income).

For Dekalb, I foresee it becoming an even larger epicenter of lower and middle income immigrants from continental Africa. I have been hearing in circles that there is a large effort currently in progress by some very prominent long time Atlantans to bring in (and send out) more investment in Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya to Dekalb. What I see happening is the creation of settlement in the same vein as New England or New France of the old colonial period...just not as stark. In the next decade watch for an rapid increase in African immigrants to Dekalb similar to what happened with Gwinnett and Koreans. Look up the term Afropolitan for more information on this.

For Gwinnett, I foresee the Korean community exploding even further. The word is already out about Atlanta for Korean-Americans and those in Korea and I expect to see an even larger growth of Koreans in Atlanta in the 2010s. A similar situation to what I described above is already occurring in Gwinnett and development money is pouring into the area from Korea even during the recession.

For other large ethnic groups, I foresee a significant decrease of new Latino immigrants from Mexico and Central America to the entire Metro, but I do not see an overall drop in their numbers in the area. The ones already here have stuck it out threw the recession and they continue to have an extremely high birth rate. On the flip side, I think we will start to see a large influx of Domincans mainly from NYC relocating here economic opportunities.

[chubby decker]

With Atlanta officially the new Black Mecca, I currently see an arc forming on the north side of town comprised of many of the older near-in suburbs from just north of the perimeter extending another 5-10 miles outward that will be comprised of mostly minorities, of which blacks will be the overwhelming majority minority. This arc will essentially cut the white population inside the perimeter off from the overwhelming majority of the metro's white population that continues to move further and further north and away from the city, or at a minimum leaves a yo-yo thread along 400 connecting those 2 white population masses that are drifting further and further apart. This scenario may take another 10-15 years or so to completely come about, but the trend is moving in that direction.

As far as what happens inside the perimeter and within the actual city limits of Atlanta, I see an ebbing of the white population growth that many people have spoken of over the last decade. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to find out that more blacks than whites have moved within the city limits within the last 3 years. A look at whose moving into many of the overbuilt condo developments that are now being rented out as apartments in such places as south Buckhead will show more blacks than whites living there. Meanwhile many of the young whites that moved into Atlanta will be moving on when it's times to raise a family and they realize that both the Atlanta and Dekalb public school systems are completely dysfunctional and not an option for their children.

[MikeandIke27]

As a black man Ill be glad when all this black mecca stuff goes away