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Old 06-07-2010, 06:51 AM
 
1,114 posts, read 2,350,574 times
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Atlanta is no more imploding than any other major city listed. Is there a crime problem in parts of the city center? Sure, but it's little different than most urban cities. There is a concentration of poverty within sections of the city proper and that can easily skew stats. The city certainly has major flaws but I'm still betting ATL has a good chance of survival and growth.

I took a look at the Atlanta homicide rate for '09 and it was 80 homicides which is a good bit lower than the 140-150 per year Atlanta experienced in 2001 and 2002. Given the robbery rate was down to 2,725 from over 4,000 in '02 it's also a good sign. The only stat that has increased is the burglary rate from 8,500 to a touch over 9,000. With how much Atlanta has grown in the last decade, holding crime steady is a fairly dramatic improvement. Outside of a repeat of the Franklin years of underreporting crimes, I think ATL police are doing their job despite fairly poor funding. I ran the numbers a while ago and saw that NYC has something like 50% more cops per capita which is a necessity given the popularity of the city as a target and the # of tourists. I definitely think cops could do a better job but given our poor management of the homeless (get rid of Peachtree Pine), they've done an ok job.

Overall stats are much better now than the last 10 yrs so I'm not too sure why you chose now to flee? As for the jobs situation...I've averaged 11% raises each year since I joined the workforce in '05. I had far more luck getting jobs and having a good quality of life compared to my peers that I graduated w/ in NY in '03. Sure a few of them are Wall St masters of the universe but most aren't close to owning a home yet and spend 2k/mon on rent. I've been able to buy a nice condo, start my MBA, buy a luxury car I don't need, spend 5 figures on bicycles, save 15% toward retirement and all w/o racking up any more debt (Ivy schools are expensive) before I turn 30. Even my friends and coworkers that did get laid off all found better jobs within 5-6 months. My sister in law broke into the six figures by getting laid off for five weeks.
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:51 AM
 
17 posts, read 60,736 times
Reputation: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by billl View Post
Lots of hyperbole and opinion on this thread and very little actual numbers.

I grabbed the spreadsheet of crime statistics for 2009 off the FBI website.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/prelimsem2009/Excels/09table4.xls (broken link)

This is the most recent data available. Then I calculated per capita crime rates by adding the violent and property crime numbers, dividing by the population, and multiplying by 100000. This gets a per capita number as I understand it.

Atlanta has 7362 crimes reported in 2009 per capita.

New York is 2242, LA is 2809, and Chicago is 4227.

However ... by the same per capita measure, the following cities have a worse crime rate than Atlanta:

Birmingham, AL: 9223
Anaheim, CA: 9791
New Haven CT: 7460
Orlando, FL: 8579
St. Petersburg, FL: 8382
Columbus GA: 8504 (that's Georgia, NOT Ohio)
Baton Rouge, LA: 7383
Lafayette, LA: 7522
Detroit, MI: 7466
Flint, MI: 7734
Jackson, MS: 8505
Springfield, MO: 9708
St. Louis, MO: 10401
Fayetteville, NC: 8491
Chattanooga, TN: 8462
Knoxville, TN: 7407
Memphis, TN: 8870
Salt Lake City, UT: 8726
Tacoma, WA: 8050

So if you're willing to accept that all of those cities listed have a worse crime problem than Atlanta, then I guess we can accept per capita measurements as realistic. But I honestly don't think the crime in St. Petersburg, FL or Columbus, GA really compares to Atlanta.

By the way, DC has a per capita crime rate of 5768.

What would be a fairer measure of crime would be the per capita numbers from cities with a similar population.

Atlanta's population as listed in the FBI report is 552,901, so I selected cities with a population in the range 400000-700000. Now the picture looks very bleak for Atlanta. Only one city with population in that range had a per capita crime rate higher than Atlanta: Memphis.

If you're looking for good news in the numbers, the number of overall crimes in Atlanta dropped from 46381 in 2008 to 40708 in 2009.

Although I think it is unfair to compare Atlanta's crime rate to New York or LA on a per capita basis, clearly Atlanta has a crime problem when compared to cities of similar size. I don't think this will come as a surprise to very many people.
thank you for this analysis; from my point of view, it's fair, thoughtful and balanced. and fair enough point about it not being surprising to many people - consider me no longer surprised.

the 2008 - 2009 trend in absolute numbers is encouraging, given that I assume that the overall population grew over that same time period. so that seems to be a welcome positive.
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:54 AM
 
37 posts, read 64,387 times
Reputation: 16
http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/2009...9_Rank_Rev.pdf
2009 City Crime Rankings
1. Camden, NJ
2. St. Louis, MO
3. Oakland, CA
4. Detroit, MI
5. Flint, MI
6. New Orleans, LA
7. Birmingham, AL
8. Cleveland, OH
...
16. Washington, DC
....
18. Atlanta, GA
....
29. Newark, NJ
...
145. Los Angeles, CA
...
256. New York, NY



According to these numbers, Atlanta is slightly safer than DC and much less safe than LA and NYC.
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:57 AM
 
37 posts, read 64,387 times
Reputation: 16
Here it is by metro area:
http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/2009...9_Rank_Rev.pdf
1. Pine Bluff, AR
2. Memphis, TN
3. Saginaw, MI
4. Miami-Dade FL
5. New Orleans, LA
...
70. Atlanta, GA
...
100. Los Angeles (greater), CA
...
130. Washington (greater), DC-VA-MD
...
240. New York (greater) NY


So even by entire metro area, Atlanta is less safe than LA and NYC AND less safe than the DC area.
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:57 AM
 
4,843 posts, read 6,107,637 times
Reputation: 4670
Quote:
Originally Posted by tahitiblue View Post
http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/2009...9_Rank_Rev.pdf
2009 City Crime Rankings
1. Camden, NJ
2. St. Louis, MO
3. Oakland, CA
4. Detroit, MI
5. Flint, MI
6. New Orleans, LA
7. Birmingham, AL
8. Cleveland, OH
...
16. Washington, DC
....
18. Atlanta, GA
....
29. Newark, NJ
...
145. Los Angeles, CA
...
256. New York, NY



According to these numbers, Atlanta is slightly safer than DC and much less safe than LA and NYC.
Now everyone see this right?
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:57 AM
 
Location: ATL
4,688 posts, read 8,023,785 times
Reputation: 1804
Quote:
Originally Posted by back2dc View Post
First -- all of these cities have larger populations that Atlanta, so the raw data here not only is useless, but obviously used in a biased fashion.

Murders are concentrated in the projects -- drug-deals gone bad. The average citizen does not have to worry about murders, unless the projects are closed down and section-8 vouchers are used throughout the city AND the suburban metro area? Sound like any city that we know?

Plus there are other crimes you're not reporting which are more common than murders. It's these other crimes that can affect the average citizen.

Atlanta is about the same size as DC and Bmore which are very very very dangerous compared to Atlanta
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Old 06-07-2010, 06:59 AM
 
37 posts, read 64,387 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonygeorgia View Post
Atlanta is about the same size as DC and Bmore which are very very very dangerous compared to Atlanta
Atlanta is safer than Baltimore, I'll give you that. But it is not safer than DC, if you're talking about the whole metro area. And it is much less safe than LA or NYC.
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Old 06-07-2010, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
657 posts, read 1,505,369 times
Reputation: 511
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonygeorgia View Post
Atlanta is about the same size as DC and Bmore which are very very very dangerous compared to Atlanta
Atlanta has about 100,000 and 150,000 LESS people than DC and Baltimore.

The crime in DC and Baltimore is concentrated in certain areas. The crime and ghetto element in Atlanta unfortunately is scattered EVERYWHERE in the metro area.
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Old 06-07-2010, 07:12 AM
 
Location: NH
232 posts, read 542,711 times
Reputation: 168
Not hating on Atlanta, just a data geek....LOL. Had a few of my friends move down there from Mass. Many jobs down there pay better than other parts of the south, and the cost of living is more affordable. My friends all found jobs that could afford them a single family home with a yard for their kids to play in.

Me...granted my situation is a bit different (single, no kids), the condo I have under contract is nearly 50 miles from Boston in southern NH, I had to go that far out to find a reaonably priced place in a neighborhood I like. If I ever have to commute back in to Boston again, I'm looking at 2 hours minimum each way...I'm hoping that doesn't happen.

Crime rate is important...but so is being able to afford to live an reasonable lifestyle...I suspect many Hotlanta folks would have a good belly laugh over the cost of living out this way. Its all a package.
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Old 06-07-2010, 07:14 AM
 
Location: ATL
4,688 posts, read 8,023,785 times
Reputation: 1804
Quote:
Originally Posted by back2dc View Post
Atlanta has about 100,000 and 150,000 LESS people than DC and Baltimore.

The crime in DC and Baltimore is concentrated in certain areas. The crime and ghetto element in Atlanta unfortunately is scattered EVERYWHERE in the metro area.
True BUT crime is still out of control in Bmore and DC. DC's crime is everywhere from PG, SE, VA, etc and the same with Bmore....

2009

Bmore: 238 Murders
DC: 143 Murders
Atlanta: 80 Murders


Again, Atlanta is much safer than DANGEROUS DC and BMORE
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