When is the lake going to dry up? (Austin: HOA, how much)

[Kosmonaut]

Does anybody have a good idea how much water we have left? Does anyone think it could happen? I have a small pond out back and it's doing a lot better than Lake Travis right now.

[BatWing]

My friend studied Biology did a dive at the edge of the Dam and it's welll over 100+ feet. they only dove 60+. So my guess is it will never "dry up"

[Trainwreck20]

The lake is at 38% capacity right now. As the lake goes lower, more restrictions kick in, so it will take a lot longer to 'lose' the next 38% than it took to loose the 38% before now. Well, the combined storage of Buchanan and Travis is at 38%, don't really know if one is at 40 and the other at 36, etc. Anyway, there is several years to go even under drought conditions, but I would not be terribly surprised to see us hit a new record low by the end of the summer....

[austinnerd]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

The lake is at 38% capacity right now. As the lake goes lower, more restrictions kick in, so it will take a lot longer to 'lose' the next 38% than it took to loose the 38% before now. Well, the combined storage of Buchanan and Travis is at 38%, don't really know if one is at 40 and the other at 36, etc. Anyway, there is several years to go even under drought conditions, but I would not be terribly surprised to see us hit a new record low by the end of the summer....

Wait, is the lake 38% below capacity or is it at 38% of capacity (in which case it's lost 62%)? If it's the latter then that "next" 38% will make 100%, unless of course you're referring to losing 38% of current capacity, in which case it may not be slower at all since 38% of 38% is significantly smaller in terms of absolute volume.

[Kosmonaut]

There are a lot of straws in the aquifer right now. Property owners with wells I'm sure are contributing to the lowering lake levels.

[Trainwreck20]

The 38% is current volume of water supply left, not lake level, so the rate of change in percent capacity is directly proportional to addition - (usage+loss). I am saying that while it essentially took 3 years to go from 76% to 38%, the rice farming is not cutoff and, if it continues to drop, additional restrictions will be put in place that will make it take longer than three years to get to 0%.

[Trainwreck20]

There are a lot of straws in the aquifer right now. Property owners with wells I'm sure are contributing to the lowering lake levels.

The wells, probably not so much. The flow through the lakes into the aquifer is miniscule, so the change in hydraulic pressure from lowering the water table will have almost no impact.

There are also people pumping directly out of the lake itself, though, and while the total volume is probably not that much and there has been sparring in the past, I suspect that issue may raise itself again.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by austinnerd

Wait, is the lake 38% below capacity or is it at 38% of capacity (in which case it's lost 62%)? If it's the latter then that "next" 38% will make 100%, unless of course you're referring to losing 38% of current capacity, in which case it may not be slower at all since 38% of 38% is significantly smaller in terms of absolute volume.

It's at 38% capacity, and that's a combination of Lake Travis (37% full) and Lake Buchanan (39% full). Those are the "storage" lakes, the other lakes on the chain are kept at a fixed level (LBJ, Lake Austin, etc) and hence don't reflect overall capacity.

The LCRA web site has really comprehensive info, from real-time levels and streamflows to historical data:
LCRA River Report

[Kosmonaut]

The lower the lake drops, the more hoarding we'll see where demand is strongest, such as expensive HOA dominated neighborhoods. I wouldn't trust the residents in the arid western portions of Travis County to behave in a civilized manner when things become tough. I think falling property values in expensive-to-maintain areas will be in our future.

[BatWing]

Austin is riped for a torrential downpour. it almost happend a few weeks back but the cloudburst didn't break until it got over 360