Austin Market Cooling Down - Lowest home sales (Lakeway, Howe: credit, neighborhood)

[jwb123]

I regularly search the listings on homes in my neighborhood and general area to see what's out there... it's definitely NOT dirty, run down homes. Nice, updated, well kept 200-500k homes on great lots, in a golf course community! Many are on the market for a year or more. Most eventually have price drops. I think the Austin area is fooling itself thinking they are above what's going on nationally.

On the "factory worker" thing... my evidence? I know a lot of Dell employees! Specifically, I actually babysit the daughters - afterschool - of a woman who works in one of the manufactoring buildings. She's a homeowner in Round Rock, and seems to be well paid. No, I don't think their home is a $400k home, but they live in a good neighborhood and their kids go to a good school, near Tera Vista. I met an HEB stocker recently that just bought/built a house IN TeraVista. I think it's outdated (and classist!!) to assume that because someone is not sitting behind a desk for 9+ hours, preparing spread sheets, that they must be low income, apartment dwellers. Then again, I remember a familiar Austin realtor telling me, when I was moving here, that Hutto is an area for people who couldn't afford Round Rock and likened it to section 8 housing.... so, grain of salt.

900 lay-offs (and the accompaning 50 here and there each week for the last 6 months) is a BIG DEAL for our economy - from all aspects, and shouldn't be pushed aside as an isolated incident of no concern.

[TexasHorseLady]

Looking at the Austin area Monthly Residential Units Year To Date stats, through February (most recent available) we appear to be below 2006 and 2007, but tracking 2005 almost exactly. And looking at the inventory report, Austin as a whole is still barely in a seller's market (areas vary, of course, as do price ranges - if you're talking about $750,000 and above, those are in a deep buyer's market, while everything below that in price is doing pretty well from a seller's point of view, again depending on area).

Jenbar, do I understand correctly that you're in Hutto? If so, in Hutto the above is true for $200,000 and above being in a buyer's market and below that, not so much. As I said, it varies by area, some are hotter than others.

[Taterhead]

Originally Posted by Jenbar

Most eventually have price drops. I think the Austin area is fooling itself thinking they are above what's going on nationally..

From what I've been reading on City-data for the past 6 months or so, it is mostly the realtors saying the market is fine in your city.

I mostly look MLS in Round rock, Cedar park, Georgetown, and sometimes will pull up homes in Hutto, leander and such. I am not seeing things are fine in these areas. I see same homes on market long periods of time, price drops and still not selling.

I have friends here in Phoenix fooling themselves too, saying the market here will bottom out this summer and they see things are on a upswing. I laugh and say to them that is NOT what our realtor friend is saying. Our realtor also says a lot of the homes here are wayyyyy over priced and people need to get real on their pricing. My friends don't want to believe that either, lol.

Deb

[TexasHorseLady]

What I was saying, as a Realtor, was what the stats are on solds and the inventory currently on the market. Not my personal opinion. Now, if it's your house that isn't selling for some reason (overpriced for the comps sold and on the market, doesn't show well, not marketed properly, whatever), it's going to feel like the market is in the toilet. Or if you're a buyer hoping to profit from a buyer's market and make lowball offers, yes, you're going to want folks to see it as in the toilet so you can get a deal.

However, I'm just going by the stats here. Yes, the market is down, to 2005 levels, through February of 2008. And there are houses on the market for a very long time in some areas and some price ranges, while in other areas and/or other price ranges, they're flying off the shelves.

[jwb123]

Jenbar, do I understand correctly that you're in Hutto?

No, I am not in Hutto.

I am in the Forest Creek subdivision of EAST Round Rock.

[jwb123]

Yes, the market is down, to 2005 levels, through February of 2008.

That is not a good thing!! That is not even an "ok" thing! Real Estate, most individuals largest investment, is supposed to go UP, or at the very least, stagnate.... but to go down to what it was in 2005? It doesn't take a Real Estate license to understand that's not good....

[TexasHorseLady]

Ah. Okay. East Round Rock stats (I looked at them while I was looking at Hutto) are, interestingly, mirroring Hutto's pretty closely. In west RR, however, the dividing line between seller's and buyer's market moves up to $300,000 - anything below $300,000 is in a seller's market, above that, a buyer's market. (What this means is that those who would like to move up from a lower priced home to a higher priced one matching those dividing lines are in a better position to do so as they can sell in a seller's market and buy in a buyer's market.)

[TexasHorseLady]

Real Estate, most individuals largest investment, is supposed to go UP, or at the very least, stagnate.... but to go down to what it was in 2005?

I'm sorry, I should have stated that more clearly. SALES are down. Prices are up. In most areas, between 2006-2007, they were up significantly, and in those areas where they dropped, for the most part the drop was a small percentage of what they went up the previous year, and even in those areas where the drop was significant in that one year, there was still appreciation, not depreciation, in value over the 5 year period.

Real estate goes up and down continuously, always averaging up, but being down at times, historically. It's a big picture kind of investment. Looking at January and February of this year and the past few years, # of sales is down, but prices are up. Looking at the five year trend in appreciation/depreciation, most all areas in the Austin area MLS (except UT) are up in value over the past five years, some as much as 140+%, most in the 20-50% range, some less, with a couple of areas declining in value.

[Taterhead]

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

In west RR, however, the dividing line between seller's and buyer's market moves up to $300,000 - anything below $300,000 is in a seller's market, above that, a buyer's market. )

Sorry to keep jumping in here, but I don't buy that THL. I look at only 300 and under homes when i look on MLS listings. I see it as a buyer market. And, as a buyer, I would jump on homes for sale right now in the 300 and under market . I hope they are still that good when we sell our home here in Phoenix and move there.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

If you were in Austin in 2002/2003, you'd know that the type of Dell and other High Tech salaried worker layoffs at that time created a massive out-migration of high tech workers seeking jobs elsewhere. And that created a lot of homes for sale in Round Rock. My point was, these factory worker layoffs are not going to create that sort of out-migration or home sell-off.

Call it "ridiculously classist" if you will, but it's simply an economic fact. Maybe you are ridiculously smarter than me and have some information I'm not aware of that you'd like to share? I don't appreciate your uppity tone.Steve

I can't remember when I've ever heard the words "I don't appreciate your uppity tone" uttered by a male since I've lived in Texas. Seriously, though, you should be prepared now for people to ignore your informative opinions -- you have come across as extremely defensive. Doesn't help your original point any.

Also, I believe it was you that initially generalized the 900 laid-off workers as "not likely homeowners." It's always a mistake to generalize like that, and Jenbar just called you on it, IMO. And now you ask her for data? After making a broad statement about their home ownership -- if anyone should be backing up their claims with data it should be you. So let's have it.

But back to the original post... I guess I've seen more homes for sale as well. I can see, from this board, that many people are moving here hoping to find jobs. While I hope they do, I know that historically Austin's job market isn't that huge. It's bigger now, but what happens if a bunch of people move here and there just aren't enough jobs yet? Some are arriving with a nest egg, equity money, etc... which may delay certain signs which indicate a downturn.

Also, as some of the agents pointed out, there are always hot areas here in Austin. Even during the downturn of 2002, Tarrytown and Westlake were hot markets. The late 80's bust was much worse; pretty much across the board everything was cheap. The west side prices recovered first, and eventually the north part of Austin recovered... then the south... in some ways the east side is just now recovering.