Austin Market Cooling Down - Lowest home sales (Round Rock, Georgetown: jumbo loan, neighborhoods)

[jwb123]

SALES are down. Prices are up.

My sister bought her 3200 sq ft, 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home, on a nice, treed lot here in a golf course neighborhood with a great (often rated exemplary) school in walking distance, in 2001 - for something like $220,000 - $230,000 or so. It's a respected, quality builder. We aren't talking KB....

In 2006-2007, I think it may have appreciated up to $280,000 - but here recently, a similar floor plan/lot sold for less than $260k.

There is a home down the street from me whom, a year ago, was placed on the market at $224k. It still hasn't sold, and was recently rented - but the last price on it was $159!!!!

A house across the street from me hasn't sold in 2 yrs and it's the lowest priced home in whats regarded as a good neighborhood - for $184k!

I just don't see that prices are up. I'm sorry. I really do want to believe what realtors that I have spoken too, even outside of this forum, are selling... but I just don't see it.

[TexasHorseLady]

Taterhead, again, I'm simply going by the statistics available (from the title company) for both solds and houses on the market in Austin for the past five years up to the present. You don't have to accept those statistics, of course.

Phoenix prices, too, are going to be much different from Austin prices. And there was a time within the past few years when we were in what was acknowledged to be a thrivingm arket where we had people from California selling their houses there and buying houses here, for cash, sight unseen, and moving here and living off what was left. So what you might consider to be a buyer's market looking at it from a perspective of Phoenix prices is, in the terms usually used to define the markets as seller's or buyer's (ADOM, prices, inventory currently on the market, and so on) a seller's market in those price ranges in the areas mentioned.

That may be where the disagreement lies. The stats I've got are comparing apples to apples (Austin to Austin) and you're comparing apples to oranges (Phoenix prices to Austin prices).

[TexasHorseLady]

Jenbar, I'm not selling anything (but houses and land); I'm just presenting the statistics as they exist. As I said, individually, this may vary, but across the board, that's what the stats say. Your choice whether to believe the stats or the individual cases. (And I know the individual cases can be very painful for the parties involved, and very frightening to onlookers, but they're not the whole picture.)

[Taterhead]

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

The stats I've got are comparing apples to apples (Austin to Austin) and you're comparing apples to oranges (Phoenix prices to Austin prices).

Where did you get that from what i said? I am NOT comparing Phoenix to Austin at all. What i said and have been saying, is I have been looking at home In Austin market for going on a year now. We will eventually be moving near the kids, so I look on MLS almost daily. I am seeing the same homes for sale in our price range 200-300 thousand. They have dropped in price and still haven't sold. I see that as a sign of a buyers market in my book. Some of these homes I'm keeping track of are gone from the MLS, just to come back on a short time later and with a lower price tag.

At least my realtor friend is keeping it real with me here in Phoenix, she tell me to ignor the hype from friends who think the market is on a upswing.

Also prices being up and sales being down in Austin?, that is what is happening here. The prices are falsely up here and people here don't want to lower them because they are in denial.
Deb

[2austin]

I agree with Jenbar. In the Lakeway neighborhood of Falconhead I am seeing atleast 5 (almost brand new) houses which have been sitting on the market for a year or more. I visited a friend in Villages of Western Oaks and he told me two houses in 250-350k range just on his street have been sitting on the market for 9 months and sellers are lowering prices every few months. And these are all staged and well maintained houses in move-in condition. I know many houses in Eanes ISD right off of 360 which have been sitting on the market for more than 8 months.

When I hear Steve and others talk about some parts of Austin being a hot sellers market, they must be talking about areas I dont know much about.

[Torontonian]

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

Or if you're a buyer hoping to profit from a buyer's market and make lowball offers, yes, you're going to want folks to see it as in the toilet so you can get a deal.

Nope. Neither seller nor buyer. I wish my house would've appreciated by 8% since last year as per "stats" but I also see the desperate underwater homeowner trying to sell his house on my street 30K less of what he paid in 2007 to a builder. Just facts

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

However, I'm just going by the stats here. Yes, the market is down, to 2005 levels, through February of 2008. And there are houses on the market for a very long time in some areas and some price ranges, while in other areas and/or other price ranges, they're flying off the shelves.

Last fall I spent one Saturday attending open houses in Circle C (hot area, eh). Most of the agents were telling me that the market suddenly changed to the buyer's market. Those houses would've sold quickly just 6 months ago.

No wonder I see some realtors are taking courses of "how to buy a foreclosure" while telling clients that Austin market is immune. Sigh

[Trainwreck20]

hmm...so far this year, four houses on my street (in VAWO) have sold in ~60 days (or less). Not sure on the exact final price, but they are in the $250k - $275k range. Admittedly, I have no idea on what the next neighborhood (or street) over is like, but seems okay from what I see immediately around me.

[Megan1967]

Jenbar could you email me and let me know of any really good leads in your area? I'm coming down in May and frankly have been overwhelmed by the price drops I'm seeing (happily I might add).

Still, I don't know what's dropping because it has major flaws and what's dropping because of the market.

My income is directly linked to the stock market so I probably will be making much less next year than I have in the past two years, but I could probably still afford $1000-1200 per month house payment with taxes escrowed.

I don't know anything about how the homestead credit or other local quirks in the housing market work and these things may up my "do-able" range in terms of monthly payments. The lack of income tax has a very minimal effect for me. I'm hoping I will have $50,000 to put down on a house.

Thanks in advance!

Megan

[Taterhead]

Just for and update and then I'm off to do something fun

I just checked 5 homes on MLS that I have saved in my files and been keeping track of. ALL of them have dropped their prices. One was a 3 car priced at 254, now 239, another 3 car, was 245, now 230, one at 199.900, now 189.900 and so on. These prices have dropped in just the last few weeks. 3 homes were in RR, 1 in leander, 1 hutto and one in GT. This is the trend I have been seeing for the past 6 months in your city. These are nice homes too, not KB, too bad really.

I'm off to play

[TexasHorseLady]

What you're not seeing, though, in that kind of search, is the houses that HAVE sold, and what they've sold for, and the percentage of asking price that they sold for (since you don't have access to the sold price).

For example, I was doing comps for a area in South Austin just yesterday. What the comps told me was that that area is going up in price and that there are a couple of houses there (we're talking in the $150-200 range) that sold for quite a bit over asking, in a very short period of time (16-30 days). Now, that's a snapshot of one segment (the houses that matched the criteria for the house I was pulling the comps for) of one neighborhood in Austin in just the past 90 days. If I were a buyer and I were to limit my view of the Austin market as a whole on just what I, specifically, was looking for, I would be insisting that the market as a whole was hot, hot, HOT! When, in fact, the next neighborhood over, in a different price range, that I didn't look at, might tell a different story entirely.

That's why when I talk about the market as a whole, I don't use just the searches that I, personally, have done, but go to the bigger picture of the stats overall and divided by MLS area and price range. They paint a much more accurate picture of the overall market, in my experience, because they include all the areas that I don't look at because I'm focusing on those areas that are pertinent to what my clients are seeking.