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If you are the 400,000 person to order the car and it is still 2-3 year from production the person must expect to receive there new (yet will be older model car when the get it finally receive it 5-6 years from now) what will they do till they get their new car it in what 2020-2021?
That is why I think a Gas-Electric Hybrids and the Chevy Bolt are better they have dealers all over the country and you can buy it right of the lot without waiting 4-5 years
If you are the 400,000 person to order the car and it is still 2-3 year from production the person must expect to receive there new (yet will be older model car when the get it finally receive it 5-6 years from now) what will they do till they get their new car it in what 2020-2021?
That is why I think a Gas-Electric Hybrids and the Chevy Bolt are better they have dealers all over the country and you can buy it right of the lot without waiting 4-5 years
Depends how much Tesla can ramp up production. Assuming everything works without delays (uh, yeah) by 2020 they'll have capacity to produce 500,000 cars a year.
Depends how much Tesla can ramp up production. Assuming everything works without delays (uh, yeah) by 2020 they'll have capacity to produce 500,000 cars a year.
So what happens when the market rapidly shrinks after demand is met? EVs are a niche enthusiast market that most likely cannot sustain 500,000 cars a year. Tesla would then be faced with over production.
So what happens when the market rapidly shrinks after demand is met? EVs are a niche enthusiast market that most likely cannot sustain 500,000 cars a year. Tesla would then be faced with over production.
Time will tell. The iPhone had plenty of skeptics in the early years too. Until you used one, it seemed like a fad. I thought as much until I got the iPhone 4. Now most people, myself included, wouldn't be caught dead with a flip phone. If Tesla can continue to demonstrate technology superiority, then the buyers will come, and they will keep coming, just as they have for the iPhone.
I don't currently own a Tesla, because I can't justify spending $80-100K on car. However, I got to drive one for a week while a relative was out of the country, and it was an eye-opening experience. Over the last two decades, I've owned an Accord, a few CRVs, and now a Subaru Forester. Frankly, I haven't noticed much difference among them aside from the Subaru's superior performance in the snow. Until I drove the Tesla, I thought all cars were pretty much the same. But that is not the case. Not at all.
I'm not talking about the environmental aspects, which are a nice side benefit, but not something I would pay an extra $10-20K to get. There's a WOW factor with driving the Tesla that I've not experienced driving in any other car in the past 20 years, be it an Audi, BMW, Lexus, or Porsche. It's the instant acceleration off stop lights, entering highways, and passing cars. It's the handling and cornering. It's the silence of the car. It's the 17" touch screen with Googlemaps navigation and web browsing. It's the amazing traction on snow and ice (even better than my Forester). It's the continuous string of software updates to improve the functionality of the car. It's the autopilot functionality that lets the car drive and steer itself in stop-and-go traffic on the highway.
This is all great, but I still won't pay $80-100K for a car, no matter how good it is. But would I pay what I have been ($30-40K on CRVs and the Forester) to get all of these benefits? Plus fully autonomous driving? Absolutely. To me, there's just no comparison. It's the iPhone vs. the flip phone again. As long as I can afford an iPhone, I'm not going back to a flip phone. Similarly, when there's a Tesla or similar vehicle available at a price I am willing to pay, I won't be going back to an ICE car.
If you are the 400,000 person to order the car and it is still 2-3 year from production the person must expect to receive there new (yet will be older model car when the get it finally receive it 5-6 years from now) what will they do till they get their new car it in what 2020-2021?
That is why I think a Gas-Electric Hybrids and the Chevy Bolt are better they have dealers all over the country and you can buy it right of the lot without waiting 4-5 years
Maybe they already have 3-4 cars and waiting is not an issue. Or, maybe they just bought a new car and are planning for 4-5 years later.
Personally, I don't have enough passion about the Model 3 to order one. At the same time, if I really wanted an electric car, I can't imagine ever buying ANY Chevy product.
On the other hand, if Mazda announced tomorrow that they will re-release the RX7 in five years, but only plan to build 10K a year and offered a wait list, I would jump on it immediately.
You never know what someone else will want - or why. I'm not even sure why people who don't want a Tesla care that other people are putting their own money up to get one.
Time will tell. The iPhone had plenty of skeptics in the early years too. Until you used one, it seemed like a fad. I thought as much until I got the iPhone 4. Now most people, myself included, wouldn't be caught dead with a flip phone. If Tesla can continue to demonstrate technology superiority, then the buyers will come, and they will keep coming, just as they have for the iPhone.
I don't currently own a Tesla, because I can't justify spending $80-100K on car. However, I got to drive one for a week while a relative was out of the country, and it was an eye-opening experience. Over the last two decades, I've owned an Accord, a few CRVs, and now a Subaru Forester. Frankly, I haven't noticed much difference among them aside from the Subaru's superior performance in the snow. Until I drove the Tesla, I thought all cars were pretty much the same. But that is not the case. Not at all.
I'm not talking about the environmental aspects, which are a nice side benefit, but not something I would pay an extra $10-20K to get. There's a WOW factor with driving the Tesla that I've not experienced driving in any other car in the past 20 years, be it an Audi, BMW, Lexus, or Porsche. It's the instant acceleration off stop lights, entering highways, and passing cars. It's the handling and cornering. It's the silence of the car. It's the 17" touch screen with Googlemaps navigation and web browsing. It's the traction on snow and ice (even better than my Forester). It's the continuous string of software updates to improve the functionality of the car. It's the autopilot functionality that lets the car drive and steer itself in stop-and-go traffic on the highway.
This is all great, but I still wouldn't pay $80-100K for it. I won't pay that much for a any car, no matter how good it is. But would I pay what I have been ($30-40K on CRVs and the Forester) to get all of these benefits? Plus fully autonomous driving? Absolutely. To me, there's just no comparison. It's the iPhone vs. the flip phone again. As long as I can afford an iPhone, I'm not going back to a flip phone. Similarly, when there's a Tesla or similar vehicle available at a price I am willing to pay, I won't be going back to an ICE car.
I wouldn't compare it to an iPhone. It's more of an Apple Watch. Kinda cool in its own way but completely unnecessary. The quick acceleration off the line and big low end torque is pretty standard fare for anything with a V8 in it. The large touchscreen is ok, but not at the expense of actual buttons as Ford as figured out by now. Autopilot has been creeping into the automotive world for awhile now and it's not something exclusive to electric cars and neither is the giant touchscreen. Those were trends underway long before Tesla. Truth be told there's a huge hassle that comes with electric cars, range being one of them. Then of course you have to have a garage (40% of Americans don't even have a garage) and be willing to pay a few thousand to install a charger. Then you have to park in the garage and plug it in. No more parking wherever there's a spot open (people with multiple cars know how much of a hassle it is to shuffle cars around) .
There are over 650k F-150's alone sold a year. Its one thing to impress Accord and Subaru drivers, but I don't see truck drivers making a big switch to Model 3s anytime soon. Keep in mind the successful Accord, Civic, Camry and Corolla aren't successful because they're a blast to drive and posses edgy styling, they're successful because they're practical, affordable, reliable, and low maintenance. I remember when hybrids were all the rage. Everybody thought everything would be hybrid by now. But here we are with standard trucks and SUVs still dominating the market. Nobody cares about silent drivetrains. If they did aftermarket exhaust wouldn't be such a huge industry. Driving a silent, touchscreen controlled, EV around might feel pretty novel, but so does driving a Jeep with the doors off. It's not like anyone expects the whole world to start buying Jeeps all of a sudden. Sure there's an enthusiastic following, but it's not buying 500,000 a year. I'm expecting the Model 3 craze to die down in a few different stages...
1) when everybody realizes there's no $7500 credit left,
2) when people realize $35k doesn't really get you autopilot and supercharging.
3) when they realize the car they think they're getting is really $50k
4) when they realize the $50k cars will be delivered first and they have an even longer wait despite waiting in line.
5) when they realize everybody is offering big touch screens and autopilot before they've taken delivery of their Model 3.
Ziggy, how much do the oil companies pay you to post here? I've only ever read anti-EV posts from you.
Its obvious you have never driven a Tesla, if you think the instant torque and launch sensation is equivalent to anything with a V8. it's not. Not even close.
Range is not actually a hassle to most people, even if people like you continually act like it is (and the average person repeats your claim with no real research). I lived with a Volt and it's 45 mile range was enough for 95% of my driving. A 200 mile range and I wouldn't have needed the gas generator. over 80% of drivers drive less than 33 miles a day. That's 160 million drivers.
Ziggy, how much do the oil companies pay you to post here? I've only ever read anti-EV posts from you.
Its obvious you have never driven a Tesla, if you think the instant torque and launch sensation is equivalent to anything with a V8. it's not. Not even close.
Range is not actually a hassle to most people, even if people like you continually act like it is (and the average person repeats your claim with no real research). I lived with a Volt and it's 45 mile range was enough for 95% of my driving. A 200 mile range and I wouldn't have needed the gas generator. over 80% of drivers drive less than 33 miles a day. That's 160 million drivers.
They pay me about $25k per post. Good work detective.
For what it's worth I'm a huge fan of the Volt. I think Tesla sucks and pure EVs are for enthusiast who don't mind compromises. Please enlighten us with what Tesla's Nurburgring times are so we can compare.
They pay me about $25k per post. Good work detective.
For what it's worth I'm a huge fan of the Volt. I think Tesla sucks and pure EVs are for enthusiast who don't mind compromises. Please enlighten us with what Tesla's Nurburgring times are so we can compare.
And how many people bought the Volt?
Slightly fewer than the Tesla Model S. The market speaks. Volt is more a niche vehicle than the Model S is, which is pretty awful when you consider the price differential. Some of that's overstated Tesla hype but hype sells cars. While I think the Model 3 may be a much better vehicle, I'm not sure about at the out the door price. Because Chevy's EV offerings are more niche products than Tesla's, they're not in the same boat of losing the tax handout. Notwithstanding availability (you can buy a Volt today), Volt at $23,000 after discounts and tax credits versus Model 3 at $35,000 would be a tougher decision.
Unfortunately, while I generally like the Volt's concept the practicality just isn't there. I do have to pick up clients from time to time. While I'm not in the time of business where I need to impress anyone with a badge, I do need cargo space and a reasonable back seat. It'd be Volt-lite Malibu. I wouldn't mind seeing a PHEV version instead of just the HEV. I don't know that I'd pay the extra for it though. I could take the Volt compromise in fuel economy for extended EV operation, which is why the larger Malibu gets better fuel economy than the Volt. The practicality unfortunately is a deal breaker.
So what happens when the market rapidly shrinks after demand is met? EVs are a niche enthusiast market that most likely cannot sustain 500,000 cars a year. Tesla would then be faced with over production.
Model Y follows 3. The demand for Y will be greater than 3. Y will be based the the model 3 platform.
Batteries are advancing at a faster pace with more money being pour into R&D. The next gen battery will have 3 times the energy density with less sensitivity to temperature.
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