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Solar power is not free. In fact, powering a home from solar energy costs 2-3 times what grid power costs. I have a small solar power business and live with solar power. It is comparatively expensive.
These millenials with their "free solar power" and Tesla "wonder batteries". The delusions are strong.
When we can make good, gigantic batteries out of cheap, common minerals such as calcium or salt then a solar powered grid may become possible. That is presently a very long way off. We used to make good, long lived batteries out of iron and quit doing that. Which tells me that the real powers at be are not interested in a true solar powered grid. See the Iron Edison battery for what could have been. You can still buy them.....from China.
That is not the way it appears it will break. I would agree that roof top solar has problems driven primarily by the overheads being encountered. 60% or so of the cost of roof top solar is going to marketing and other overheads.
The utility scale solar however has none of that problem and is now getting quotes for new plants with contract, that is fully loaded, pricing around $.02 per KWhour. At that point of course solar is below the operating cost of fossil fuel. So you duplicate all your fossil plants so you run only solar whenever feasible.
Over time then we will see solar cost low enough that such things as making hydrogen becomes feasible.
And we have the very cheap solar or wind power that may well allow massive battery systems that would otherwise be uneconomic.
Sweden. Given current trends and habits, she won't exist as we know her in 2040. Recharging car batteries will be way down their list of important things to do today.
That is not the way it appears it will break. I would agree that roof top solar has problems driven primarily by the overheads being encountered. 60% or so of the cost of roof top solar is going to marketing and other overheads.
The utility scale solar however has none of that problem and is now getting quotes for new plants with contract, that is fully loaded, pricing around $.02 per KWhour. At that point of course solar is below the operating cost of fossil fuel. So you duplicate all your fossil plants so you run only solar whenever feasible.
Over time then we will see solar cost low enough that such things as making hydrogen becomes feasible.
And we have the very cheap solar or wind power that may well allow massive battery systems that would otherwise be uneconomic.
I think what you’re forgetting is that with utility solar you’re essentially creating two plants instead of one. One solar plant that essentially addresses peak high noon demand and one fossil fuel plant for the other 75% of the time. You lose twice. A fossil fuel plant not working to peak capacity isn’t as efficient and you’re paying for an entirely new solar plant right beside it whose only purpose is to save fossil fuel on sunny days. The further north you are the less efficient the solar plant gets and fewer days of peak energy production. The cost might be $.02 a kWh at midday only.
That being said, utility solar is a far more elegant and practical solution over rooftop solar.
I think what you’re forgetting is that with utility solar you’re essentially creating two plants instead of one. One solar plant that essentially addresses peak high noon demand and one fossil fuel plant for the other 75% of the time. You lose twice. A fossil fuel plant not working to peak capacity isn’t as efficient and you’re paying for an entirely new solar plant right beside it whose only purpose is to save fossil fuel on sunny days. The further north you are the less efficient the solar plant gets and fewer days of peak energy production. The cost might be $.02 a kWh at midday only.
That being said, utility solar is a far more elegant and practical solution over rooftop solar.
Um, no.
That fossil fuel plant was built 50 years ago. They have no need to build another one. A new solar plant is just that, a new solar plant.
And as far as northern climes, that's when wind turbine farms begin to make more sense.
Good lord I'm glad you're not a decision maker in this country for where technology will take us.
I think what you’re forgetting is that with utility solar you’re essentially creating two plants instead of one. One solar plant that essentially addresses peak high noon demand and one fossil fuel plant for the other 75% of the time. You lose twice. A fossil fuel plant not working to peak capacity isn’t as efficient and you’re paying for an entirely new solar plant right beside it whose only purpose is to save fossil fuel on sunny days. The further north you are the less efficient the solar plant gets and fewer days of peak energy production. The cost might be $.02 a kWh at midday only.
That being said, utility solar is a far more elegant and practical solution over rooftop solar.
Of course it is the second plant. But in much of the sun belt it will become the primary electrical source. And the gas turbine plants are the obvious choice when you need new capacity. In much of the Midwest and West wind turbines will provide the major source. So there will be s multiple decade transition as wind and solar are installed. Over those decades the storage problem will be addressed.
Any further decrease in the cost of solar or wind power or increase in the efficiency of generating hydrogen may well solve the problem of a hydrogen system for energy storage or a mobile fuel. At present a hydrogen storage system can provide energy at around .08 per KWhour in utility scale systems.
Remember that’s what they used to say about nuclear power. The problem isn’t producing the energy. It’s storing it and allowing it to be used at all times of the day. Imagine if everybody had an EV and charged at the same time every night. ... power company’s use “peaker plants”, which are essentially gas turbine engines to make up the difference. So now instead of maintaining one plant you maintain two. It’s cheaper just to use the gas turbine plant that’s creating the majority of the energy anyway.
You assume that there will be technological progress from here on out? I'll put my money on science and technology -- they will crack the storage problem, it's only a matter of time.
Your point about having to maintain two plants instead of one isn't correct -- because even if you rely on a gas plant for most of your energy you still have to build and maintain a 2nd plant for reliability because the main plant will go down for breakdowns and maintenance. No matter what type of energy a utility uses they are required to have excess capacity in case a plant goes offline.
You assume that there will be technological progress from here on out? I'll put my money on science and technology -- they will crack the storage problem, it's only a matter of time.
Your point about having to maintain two plants instead of one isn't correct -- because even if you rely on a gas plant for most of your energy you still have to build and maintain a 2nd plant for reliability because the main plant will go down for breakdowns and maintenance. No matter what type of energy a utility uses they are required to have excess capacity in case a plant goes offline.
You are neglecting to consider if they will allow the public to even know about this new technology though.
Imagine that someone has perfected anti-gravity or utilizing the earths electromagnetics as a power source, think about how disastrous that would be for the energy industry, suddenly people could power their vehicles with something that cannot be run thru a meter.
Remember that the Invention Secrecy Act was created in 1951 (thats a curious time when it comes to vehicles and engines btw), and that is still in force today. if an engine or power source could not support a large industry behind it, it would likely be suppressed under this act.
I may be wrong on this, but I believe some Freedom of Information releases have listed some of the inventions/ technology this act has been used to suppress over the years, and its about what you would expect with cars and engines...anything thats a bit 'too good' for the end user, driver, and it is suppressed!
You are neglecting to consider if they will allow the public to even know about this new technology though.
Imagine that someone has perfected anti-gravity or utilizing the earths electromagnetics as a power source, think about how disastrous that would be for the energy industry, suddenly people could power their vehicles with something that cannot be run thru a meter.
Remember that the Invention Secrecy Act was created in 1951 (thats a curious time when it comes to vehicles and engines btw), and that is still in force today. if an engine or power source could not support a large industry behind it, it would likely be suppressed under this act.
I may be wrong on this, but I believe some Freedom of Information releases have listed some of the inventions/ technology this act has been used to suppress over the years, and its about what you would expect with cars and engines...anything thats a bit 'too good' for the end user, driver, and it is suppressed!
Just another myth. The Invention Secrecy Act prevents a patent on some subjects. That would not prevent disclosure or development. Primary usage is cryptography and military stuff.
Good ideas are not suppressible. If you blocked them one time someone else will come up with it down the road.
And most of these ideas are really not all that threatening. The big fossil fuel guys for instance have a significant advantage in any adoption of a new fuel.
This thread has certainly drawn the CT crowd. About the only thing not brought up - or maybe I missed it - is the Pogue carburetor or any of its predecessors, Locked Away By Big Auto/Oil/Gummint...
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