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Japan is planning to phase out sales of new ICE vehicles for personal transportation by the mid 2030s, which is only 15 years away. New hybrid vehicle sales would still be allowed. A number of EU nations have announced similar plans, as have a few US states. Meanwhile, GM has announced plans to phase out production of ICE vehicles by 2035. It sounds faroff, but this is only 15 years away, so the next 15 years should bring a sea-change in personal transportation.
"At the same constant speed, on level ground, drawing the same load, any steel wheeled railway vehicle already in motion, will use only 5% (1/20) of the energy consumed by any large pneumatic tire road vehicle already in motion. Upon starting and initial acceleration, any steel wheeled railway vehicle will only use 10% (1/10) of the energy demanded by any large pneumatic tire road vehicle. Further, only in the case of railroads, Train Resistance, or Rolling Resistance, is inversely proportional to GCW (train weight). This means, the heavier the train, the more energy efficient it becomes."
This is one reason why no one is making ultralight weight train cars. Heavy metal is the rule. However, I think it might be worth it to verify that lightweight cars may make less track noise and squeals. And for overhead monorails, muffled track noise would be much more acceptable.
I can recall that Amusement park "toy" trains hardly made any annoying track noise.
Battery lifespan sort of depends on usage patterns and chemistry, but 5 to 7 years seems pretty pessimistic--we'll see as the last few years have seen the launch of modern battery electric multiple units for passenger service. Standardization and swapping can to some degree help this because it means swapping out batteries and being able to charge batteries sometimes at lower rates away. If you want very frequent usage, but don't need massive energy density, then perhaps supercapacitors could work. There are buses and light rail that use supercapacitors specifically for charging at stops.
I did not know the Trans-Siberian is electrified. Nice. I think battery electric (or supercapacitor electric) is still good in terms of relatively fast deployment especially where there is already rail. That first foray if it catches on then makes it easier to make the subsequent case that investment in full route electrification is desirable.
One thing with squealing is that a lot of it ratchets up from braking which a good amount of regenerative braking can greatly reduce. Less conversion of kinetic energy to friction and the din that creates in the process, more kinetic energy converted backed to usable electrical power.
I agree that the US hasn't reached the tipping point nor has any state by itself. The incentives aren't that heavy, the federal one is the largest and isn't applicable to the most popular EVs anymore, and battery prices have not hit an industry average that is at or under $100/kWh.
It depends on what the definition of "tipping point" is. Most on here seem to think the tipping point is reached when a significant market share is reached and your average non-motorhead consumer buys them. I argue when that occurs, the tipping point was reached far prior to that.
To repeat what I've posted earlier, the tipping point happens very early in the adoption cycle when market penetration is small and manufacturers commit fully with large capital investments that are irreversible. That's where we are today. The forward momentum will continue and cannot be stopped. It is very similar to PC adoption: in 1984 only 8% of US households owned a computer; simultaneously, Intel went all in developing the 386, Microsoft released Windows and Apple released the Macintosh. That was the tipping point. There was no stopping the computer revolution then; it wasn't until 2000 that computers were in 50% of American homes.
It depends on what the definition of "tipping point" is. Most on here seem to think the tipping point is reached when a significant market share is reached and your average non-motorhead consumer buys them. I argue when that occurs, the tipping point was reached far prior to that.
To repeat what I've posted earlier, the tipping point happens very early in the adoption cycle when market penetration is small and manufacturers commit fully with large capital investments that are irreversible. That's where we are today. The forward momentum will continue and cannot be stopped. It is very similar to PC adoption: in 1984 only 8% of US households owned a computer; simultaneously, Intel went all in developing the 386, Microsoft released Windows and Apple released the Macintosh. That was the tipping point. There was no stopping the computer revolution then; it wasn't until 2000 that computers were in 50% of American homes.
I agree there are different ways to talk about what a tipping point is, but the article you posted referenced it as when automakers "bring the price of electric cars dipping below that of equivalent petrol and diesel models, even without subsidies." I take that to mean new vehicles rather than total fleet and also not when the threshold for investments or installed manufacturing capacity.
Trucks should not be included in the "tipping point" thing, since these aren't EVs. Most EVs are small or compact sedans, some that are 2-seaters, and others 4. Also, very expensive EV's that cost over $50,000 aren't going to be mass produced since these are mostly considered "a luxury." If there was to be a tipping point, this would primarily take place in the automobile market of perhaps under $26,000 per automobile.
Trucks should not be included in the "tipping point" thing, since these aren't EVs. Most EVs are small or compact sedans, some that are 2-seaters, and others 4. Also, very expensive EV's that cost over $50,000 aren't going to be mass produced since these are mostly considered "a luxury." If there was to be a tipping point, this would primarily take place in the automobile market of perhaps under $26,000 per automobile.
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