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Trucks should not be included in the "tipping point" thing, since these aren't EVs. Most EVs are small or compact sedans, some that are 2-seaters, and others 4. Also, very expensive EV's that cost over $50,000 aren't going to be mass produced since these are mostly considered "a luxury." If there was to be a tipping point, this would primarily take place in the automobile market of perhaps under $26,000 per automobile.
At the end of this year, the most represented category for full BEVs in the US is probably going to be crossovers/SUVs. I think the tipping point comes with battery prices being low enough that essentially all mass market consumer sales segments are open to EVs and that will have to include trucks. However, that's still years away. Americans aren't buying many *new* vehicles that are under $26K if the median is near $40K. This means half of new vehicle sales were above that median mark and the split of vehicles in the half of sales below that median mark that are still higher than $26K is probably pretty sizable.
After all, automaker after automaker seem to be jettisoning their cheaper options, often smaller hatchbacks and sedans, from the US market. The last few years have seen a substantial abandonment of the under $26K segment. The Honda Fit is gone, the Chevy Sonic and Cruze are gone, Ford's Focus, Fiesta, Taurus, and Fusion are gone, the Toyota Yaris is gone, the Hyundai Elantra GT is gone, the VW Golf outside of its GTI version (GTI version is above $26K) is gone. Meanwhile, the ones that are around have kept creeping up in price. The MSRP for the most basic Toyota Corolla just recently passed the $20K mark at $20,025, and then there's the delivery charge of $995, so you're bumping into a basic price point of about $21K for the most basic, no-options anemic version of the Corolla. The RAV4, the best selling of Toyota's US offerings, has a MSRP that starts above the $26K mark without the destination charge.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 03-09-2021 at 08:17 PM..
At the end of this year, the most represented category for full BEVs in the US is probably going to be crossovers/SUVs. I think the tipping point comes with battery prices being low enough that essentially all mass market consumer sales segments are open to EVs and that will have to include trucks. However, that's still years away. Americans aren't buying many *new* vehicles that are under $26K if the median is near $40K. This means half of new vehicle sales were above that median mark and the split of vehicles in the half of sales below that median mark that are still higher than $26K is probably pretty sizable.
After all, automaker after automaker seem to be jettisoning their cheaper options, often smaller hatchbacks and sedans, from the US market. The last few years have seen a substantial abandonment of the under $26K segment. The Honda Fit is gone, the Chevy Sonic and Cruze are gone, Ford's Focus, Fiesta, Taurus, and Fusion are gone, the Toyota Yaris is gone, the Hyundai Elantra GT is gone, the VW Golf outside of its GTI version (GTI version is above $26K) is gone. Meanwhile, the ones that are around have kept creeping up in price. The MSRP for the most basic Toyota Corolla just recently passed the $20K mark at $20,025, and then there's the delivery charge of $995, so you're bumping into a basic price point of about $21K for the most basic, no-options anemic version of the Corolla. The RAV4, the best selling of Toyota's US offerings, has a MSRP that starts above the $26K mark without the destination charge.
You are correct. I assumed too much before I looked at this data, which by the way indicates that in the US light duty trucks have outsold cars for a couple of years (maybe more?): https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-production/
You are correct. I assumed too much before I looked at this data, which by the way indicates that in the US light duty trucks have outsold cars for a couple of years (maybe more?): https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-production/
One of the reasons why American trucks dominate, is the "Chicken Tax".
The Chicken Tax is a 25 percent tariff on light trucks (and originally on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy) imposed in 1964 by the United States under President Lyndon B. Johnson in response to tariffs placed by France and West Germany on importation of U.S. chicken. The period from 1961–1964 of tensions and negotiations surrounding the issue was known as the "Chicken War", taking place at the height of Cold War politics.
Eventually, the tariffs on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy were lifted, but since 1964 this form of protectionism has remained in place to give U.S. domestic automakers an advantage over competition (e.g., from Japan, Turkey, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Thailand). Though concern remains about its repeal, a 2003 Cato Institute study called the tariff "a policy in search of a rationale."
The Chicken Tax is a 25 percent tariff on light trucks (and originally on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy) imposed in 1964 by the United States under President Lyndon B. Johnson in response to tariffs placed by France and West Germany on importation of U.S. chicken. The period from 1961–1964 of tensions and negotiations surrounding the issue was known as the "Chicken War", taking place at the height of Cold War politics.
Eventually, the tariffs on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy were lifted, but since 1964 this form of protectionism has remained in place to give U.S. domestic automakers an advantage over competition (e.g., from Japan, Turkey, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Thailand). Though concern remains about its repeal, a 2003 Cato Institute study called the tariff "a policy in search of a rationale."
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I would assume they get around that by making the trucks here in the US. Toyota trucks are made in Texas.
Trucks should not be included in the "tipping point" thing, since these aren't EVs. Most EVs are small or compact sedans, some that are 2-seaters, and others 4. Also, very expensive EV's that cost over $50,000 aren't going to be mass produced since these are mostly considered "a luxury." If there was to be a tipping point, this would primarily take place in the automobile market of perhaps under $26,000 per automobile.
What new EVs are 2 seaters (the only ones I know of are the discontinued Smart EV and a couple ultra cheap, Chinese, barely street legal, cars that no one should buy)? Most EVs are 5 seaters (the Volt and Fiat 500e were about the only 4 seaters and they are not made anymore) from the Bolt/Bolt EUV to the Kia Niro and Soul, and Hyundai Kona and Ioniq 5, and the Ford Mach E. The VW ID.3 and ID.4 are normal sized cars, too. And most US companies, including startups like Rivian and Lordestown are intruducing EV pickups this year or next.
The tipping point of any technology is not after most people are buying it, but when it becomes viable as a technology and COULD be bought by most people. We're definitely about there. Battery prices have dropped to the point where they are about the same cost as a certified engine package in a car, and they are still dropping. ANYONE could go out right now and buy a $20-25k new EV 5 passenger daily driver that would take the place, with tech, features, interior size and quiet luxury feel, of 80% of daily drivers in the US.
Later this year, you will see these rolling around on the streets. The Ioniq 5. Not a concept car, the concept was much wilder...
I was responding to someone who said that EVs would need to get down to $26K in price before they could have a big impact on the market - did you not see that? Come on, keep up, dude.
I think they should be down to five or six thousand dollars. If you think about it they shouldn't cost as much as a traditional fuel powered car there just isn't that much to them. For example a really good electric chainsaw is 90 bucks a really good gas powered chainsaw is 500.
China actually gets that and they're going to be the first ones to adopt electric cars because they're so cheap it would be stupid not to.
but if I have to pay the same for a car with the electric car limitations as I do for a gas-powered car that doesn't have those limitations I'm not going to do it. And I think most people feel that way which is why they haven't been Mass adopted in the century and a half we've been around.
The Chicken Tax is a 25 percent tariff on light trucks (and originally on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy) imposed in 1964 by the United States under President Lyndon B. Johnson in response to tariffs placed by France and West Germany on importation of U.S. chicken. The period from 1961–1964 of tensions and negotiations surrounding the issue was known as the "Chicken War", taking place at the height of Cold War politics.
Eventually, the tariffs on potato starch, dextrin, and brandy were lifted, but since 1964 this form of protectionism has remained in place to give U.S. domestic automakers an advantage over competition (e.g., from Japan, Turkey, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Thailand). Though concern remains about its repeal, a 2003 Cato Institute study called the tariff "a policy in search of a rationale."
- for some reason, regardless of how the business uses the vehicle, pickup trucks have a completely uncapped tax break for small business owners including contractors for their first year depreciation though sedans do not get such: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...kup-2016-05-17
It's possible that a lot of US federal policies inadvertently accelerated or pushed a larger move towards pickup trucks and SUVs being so dominant with these financial nudges for individuals, businesses (who may later sell used to individuals), and automakers. At some point, that takes off with the keeping up with the Jones's mentality as well as an arms race of sorts for being the bigger, taller vehicle so you don't get boxed in or can't see over all the other bigger, taller vehicles.
4WD and 4x4 trucks burn more fuel than the ones shown above. People who don't need these features can save some cash by choosing FWD and RWD trucks. A lot of medium and even small SUVs burn as much fuel as some of the trucks shown in the link. 19 to 23 "combined" MPG is not bad at all for a pickup truck.
4WD and 4x4 trucks burn more fuel than the ones shown above. People who don't need these features can save some cash by choosing FWD and RWD trucks. A lot of medium and even small SUVs burn as much fuel as some of the trucks shown in the link. 19 to 23 "combined" MPG is not bad at all for a pickup truck.
It is kind of impressive how the MPG of big trucks has crept up to respectable levels. I mean nice trucks (and there are some REALLY nice ones) are basically today's version of a domestic luxury car and they aren't really any less efficient than those cars were.
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